Posted on 04/23/2009 5:39:21 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
April 22, 2009
More Goldman Sachs Secrets that Tim Geithner Might Not Share with You!
by Reggie Middleton
Okay, this is going to be a quick and dirty review of Goldman's derivative real estate and off balance sheet real estate exposure as is probably reflected through their credit exposure as well.
OTC Derivative Credit Exposure ($ mn) | ||||||
Feb-09 | % of total | Nov-09 | % of total | Credit Quality Deterioration? | Comments | |
AAA/Aaa | $15,387 | 15.6% | $14,596 | 20.7% | (5.10%) | <--Very significant decrease in AAA exposure |
AA/Aa2 | $33,820 | 34.2% | $24,419 | 34.7% | (0.50%) | <-- Decrease in AA exposure |
A/A2 | $25,291 | 25.6% | $16,189 | 23.0% | 2.6% | <-- Significant increase in A exposure |
BBB/Baa2 | $9,724 | 9.8% | $6,558 | 9.3% | 0.5% | <-- Increase in BBB exposure |
BB/Ba2 or lower | $13,354 | 13.5% | $7,478 | 10.6% | 2.9% | <-- Very significant increase in non-investment grade (junk) exposure |
Unrated | $1,236 | 1.3% | $1,169 | 1.7% | (0.40%) | <-- Marginal decrease in small unrated exposure |
Total | $98,812 | 100.0% | $70,409 | 100.0% |
(Excerpt) Read more at safehaven.com ...
Exposure by asset category |
($ bn) (a) | (a) % of Equity |
Incl in L3 (b) ($ bn) |
(b) % of (a) |
(b) % of Equity |
Prime | $12 | 29% | $1.7 | 14% | 3.9% |
Alt-A | $5 | 12% | $2.0 | 41% | 4.7% |
Subprime | $2 | 4% | $0.9 | 49% | 2.1% |
Total | $19.1 | 45% | $4.6 | 24% | 10.8% |
Hmmm! 16% of Goldman's equity is in Alt-A and subprime assets. Alt-a doesn't look to good. Read this article thoroughly (The banking backdrop for 2009 ), then let's move on - or we can just glance at this chart.
Ping!
~~William Cohan, "Does Goldman Sachs Really Rule the World?" October 2008
That Nov 09 heading must be a projection or it should be Nov 08, which I think is the case based on text describing GS increasing its real estate holdings.
Study the graph. We have another four years to go. Most of my friends with real wealth are planning in advance. They want to live in safe havens away from political turmoil. Check my freeper page. Check my recent posts. Do some deep thinking. Wake up, people!
Additional market problems ahead:
"Michael Mayo of Calyon Securities gave warning of broadening bank losses, which actually roiled the stock market when released. He said, Mortgage related losses are about halfway to their peak, while credit card and consumer loan losses are only a third of the way to their expected highest levels. The nations largest banks may be transitioning from a financial crisis marked by write-downs of capital, to an economic crisis featuring large loan losses. And then the headline catching report from Calyon Securities suggesting that total bank loan losses could reach 5.5% by the end of year 2010.
Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10074.html
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