Posted on 09/01/2008 3:51:41 PM PDT by WesternCulture
Well...OK
Unless, unless, unless...
Unless Russia becomes belligerent and aggressive to the point of attempting BY FORCE to reestablish the old Russian Empire (or Soviet Union).
If it ever becomes clear that's what Russia intends, then we will first have a new Cold War. But this time, instead of the Fulda Gap in Germany separating East from West, the lines will be drawn at the Baltics and Ukraine.
If Russia crosses those lines, then there would be h*ll to pay -- as there would have been during the Cold War.
If you like historical analogies (I love them!), then I would say Russia's invasion of Georgia was their Czechoslovakia of 1938. Yes, like Hitler then, they seem to have gotten away with it.
But Czechoslovakia in 1938 drove the Brits & French into an alliance with Poland, thus guaranteeing that when Hitler took his NEXT step, he would meet much sterner resistance.
That would be just as dumb. They know what happened in Afghanistan. They know there’s no reason it wouldn’t happen again. If Iranian support of the terrorists in Iraq ended because Russia had taken over we’d have a base of operation on both sides of Iran, and we’ll play the mujahadeen game on them again and in ten years they’ll have to run away.
To late for that.
If we got into a shooting war with Russia, it will end with nukes. No way around that.
We just have to say “This far, and no further” and be prepared to use nukes to hold that line.
Excellant anaylisis..you are very accurate and thorough.
The Russians can also call to arms a military force 6x the size of the US. And, the Russians now have a 5th generation fighter (PAK-FA) and a line of UAV’s.
Swedish troll advisory at post 1.
You, sir, must be high on something.
Swedish missiles, planes (e.g. the Gripen), and the subs (the D-E subs are some of the best AIP subs in the world) are great, but it is like using a diamond-studded pin against a bear. No major result. Furthermore, if you are successful (chances of that are nil, but let's assume you manage to 'wipe out' St Petersburg and Moscow) then how would Sweden manage to survive the major nuclear storm that would be coming its way!
Are you sure you are not a troll.
No. All that the Russians may have is greater numbers, but in terms of quality of equipment, quality of training, and how it all comes together, they are way behind the US (or even France for that matter ....I would like to include the UK, but lately they cannot even defend their own sailors from Iranians in inflatables, and when kidnapped those sailors cry when their ipods are taken away). Anyways, from a conventional perspective Russia cannot stand up to the US. The 5th generation fighter you mentioned (PakFa) has not even flown yet, and there are a number of different sketches of it (we shall get to see what it even LOOKS like when testing begins end of this year, but for now all we have are three DIFFERENT artist impressions of the plane). Furthermore, the PakFa is said to be more like a JSF and not like the F-22, and I sincerely doubt it will be half as good as the JSF for that matter. As for their UAVs, there are some mock-ups of Russian UAVs that look like the 'Have Blue' concept, but in UAVs the USN is way ahead of the Russians, and so are the Germans and the South Africans. All are ahead of the Russians.
Thus, the Russian threat is not conventional weaponry (although they do have top-notch anti-ship missiles). The REAL threat from the Russians is the threat of nuclear retaliation and/or aggression. Simple.
If the Russians ever decided to go toe to toe with (say the US, France, Germany, Japan or Brit ....erm, scratch Britain), they would be defeated. Their only chance of success (especially against Japan for example) is attrition, where they try to stay on for long enough to slowly degrade the superior Japanese forces through sheer force of numbers.
However, their nuclear weapons work. Conventionally the Russians are best when crushing weak and/or unprepared countries, particularly those with stupid leadership (Georgians are great people, and I feel sorry for what happened ....but their president is a stupid man who got suckered by the Russians and played right into their game plan). However, against a modern and/or prepared military, the Russian offensive machine quickly comes undone.
which is where nuclear weapons come in ....e.g. if the Chinese were to ever attack, the plan is for nuclear retaliation if things go wrong and certain areas of Russia are about to be overrun. The Russian 'wonder weapons' like the PakFa and UAVs are all well behind American analogues. It will take Russia at least 15 years to come up with an airframe that has a 1 in 2 chance of bringing down the CURRENT Raptor. When it comes to faith, the religious Russians believe in God, the corrupt ones in money, and the poiticians in their nuclear weapons.
The Russians will be welcomed by the Iranian leadership, because Iran needs help defending itself from the US presence in Iraq and Afghanistan. When and if the Russians made their move into Iran, attacks against Iraq from Iran would increase, not decrease. The Germans went into Italy to help fortify it because the Italians were not performing well for the axis. If Germany would have prevailed, Italy would have eventually become part of the Third Reich. If Russia prevails, Iran will eventually become part of the Russian Federation. IMHO.
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