TS Gustav & TS Hanna

NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

The 2008 peak of hurricane season is ramping up with Gustav and Hanna. The two storms pose threats to the U.S. At least 22 deaths in Hispanola are attributed to Gustav to date, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic.

Gustav	Hanna
Visible Satellite Image Loop Infrared Satellite Image Loop	Visible Image Loop Infrared Image Loop
WV Satellite Image Loop	WV Image Loop
Public Advisory	Public Advisory
Discussion	Discussion
Buoy Data: Western Caribbean                   FL and East GOM                   Western GOM	East Caribbean West Atlantic Florida

Forecast Models

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[rodguy911]

NO shear, hot water, all conditions good, probably great outflow.

[aberaussie]

Looking at the satellite I would say those are outer bands. We are getting lots of rain and severe thunderstorm warnings in the Orlando/Winter Park area. This is a huge storm.

[girlscout]

Have you seen all the new homes built on the lower end? I've seen that end wiped clean of buildings in past storms and shake my head when I see something new going up.

[Islander7]

Michael Moore: Hurricane Coming During GOP Convention 'Proof There Is a God in Heaven'

[DrewsMum]

well, my hubby is chompin at the bits to go ahead and get outta here ahead of the traffic since it is a long weekend anyways...then the weather girl on fox news just said texas needs to be heading north too....aaaaccckkk....i don’t wanna go but i think i’m gonna lose this battle...

[jpsb]

Yes I have been reading about a high building in the midwest, guess I'll just have to pay attention all weekend. Galveston Bay area hasn't been hit really hard since Carla, another Carla would be HORRIBLE! I am right, and I mean right on the end of a little peninsula that jutes out into Gaveston Bay. 12’ above sea level, but a 20’ surge puts 8 feet of water in my house. That would be no fun. lol.

[Guenevere]

Thanks so much for the pings and info!

Sitting on the 'other' side of the peninsula of Florida we know we're not exempt from this or future storms and the updates are much appreciated.

We just had a quick outer band from Gustaf go over our area...

I'm seriously wary of Hannah and especially the one behind her.

We took in water (from Fay) through the wall in the front of our house, kitchen.

Husband was out just now trying to correct this for next time.

We really appreciate the updates...

..and nwctwx you were spot on during Fay when you pinpointed where she would enter & exit our part of the state.

[vox_freedom]

Could you update the headline to Category 4?

Sorry, but that's NOAA's responsibility.

[LA Woman3]

Wow the idiots are all coming out of the woodwork! Who’s next, Kayne??

[jpsb]

Alica, a small baby cane, wiped the lower end of toddville clean, nothing left but foundations. You could not pay me to live there. You end is much much safer.

[rodguy911]

We are getting gusts to 32 knots(36 mph) squally rain and the baro is still dropping at 29.78.

[vox_freedom]

thanks for that link.

whew, Gustav is acomin’

[girlscout]

We’re staying for now. From the sounds of it, you’d best pack your bag. If hubby wants to go, chances are strong that you’re going. At least you’d be ahead of the traffic! :-))

[VirginiaMom]

I heard from my son this morning. He and his girlfriend and all of her Americorps coworkers were headed out of NO and up to Tennessee for the duration.

This mom let out a huge sigh of relief. They packed plenty of water and food for the trip and hopefully ALOT of patience.

Praying that all get out of the way of this storm.

VirginiaMom

[jpsb]

Michael Moore proof there is a devil in hell.

[mathluv]

I’m in Longview. A friend said the motels are already filled.

[aberaussie]

We are getting gusts to 32 knots(36 mph) squally rain and the baro is still dropping at 29.78.

I forget, where are y'all?

The forecast is calling for rain for us all weekend. I feel bad for the folks a little north of us with all the flooding. At least one of the families in our homeschool group is trying to keep water out of their house.

[callmejoe]

Houston here. By the 10pm news tonight, they should have better recommendations. A lot of the scenarios involve flooding here even if the storm tracks east of us, so I’d start preparing for that even if it stays on an LA course. But I’d stay tuned tonight and tomorrow. If a worst-case scenario emerges, they will evacuate by zip code to try to avoid the Katrina gridlock. But it may still be a mess, so if they start saying an evacuation is possible on the 10pm news, I’d get everything ready so you can leave tomorrow if necessary. At the moment, evacuation for our area does not seem to be the most likely scenario (but is still possible). In any case, I would gas up now because they will keep running fuel into the area as long as possible to avoid the shortages like last time, but if the storm shifts towards us there will be too much of a rush to accommodate efficiently and the lines will be long as in 2005. Plus, prices should jump substantially in this area over the next few days. I’d go get any emergency supplies you don’t already have (canned goods, bottled water, batteries) because if the forecast suddenly changes, there will be a last-minute rush and hoarding because everyone will have to suddenly get ready all at the same time with only a 24-48 hour window before the weather starts to hit and things shut down.

http://www.houstongasprices.com/

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/hurricanes/gustav/

August 30, 2008

Four potential scenarios for the Cat. 4 Gustav

Hurricane Gustav has become a large storm today, reaching category 4 status with 145 mph winds. As the following satellite image shows, Gustav has developed a distinct eye and will soon begin crossing Cuba.

At this point I envision at least four possible scenarios, in order of most likely to least likely:

1. Central Louisiana landfall, moves inland: This scenario basically follows the GFDL model and the official track forecast. A major hurricane slams into the Louisiana coast just east of New Iberia. The storm slows as it moves inland and perhaps stalls over northeast Texas. There’s lots of rainfall in Louisiana and east Texas, including Houston. The storm hits Lake Charles and Baton Rouge hard but other major population centers are largely spared damaging winds.

2. Central Louisiana landfall, stalls: In such a scenario, similar to the HWRF model, Gustav makes landfall in central Louisiana as a major hurricane and moves inland for a short period of time. In one to three days, however, it moves back offshore and may re-strengthen before ultimately striking Texas. In such a scenario Texas is probably spared catastrophic winds but there is a potential for significant flooding.

3. Eastern Louisiana landfall: Perhaps after taking a northward jog off Cuba, Gustav makes landfall east of Morgan City as a major hurricane. As I have described below such a scenario is potentially catastrophic for the city of New Orleans, which would face a massive storm surge.

4. Upper Texas coast landfall: Before Gustav reaches the central Louisiana coast the storm bumps into a high pressure system, which bends it westward toward Texas. Depending how close Gustav comes to shore, this scenario could bring a major hurricane to Texas.

[Islander7]

“...Michael Moore proof there is a devil in hell...”

I was thinking maybe proof of cross-specie breeding.

[ArmstedFragg]

“We just want to make sure the state gets as many buses as possible into that staging area,” New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said during a press conference.

Good ole' Ray, trying to pass off responsibility to the state again.