TS Gustav & TS Hanna

NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

The 2008 peak of hurricane season is ramping up with Gustav and Hanna. The two storms pose threats to the U.S. At least 22 deaths in Hispanola are attributed to Gustav to date, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic.

Gustav	Hanna
Visible Satellite Image Loop Infrared Satellite Image Loop	Visible Image Loop Infrared Image Loop
WV Satellite Image Loop	WV Image Loop
Public Advisory	Public Advisory
Discussion	Discussion
Buoy Data: Western Caribbean                   FL and East GOM                   Western GOM	East Caribbean West Atlantic Florida

Forecast Models

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

Gustav moving across Jamaica. Movement toward W
near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds 70 mph. Pressure
985 mb.

Hanna is struggling to survive wind shear.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[girlscout]

Or....yall could stay home and put up shutters and pick stuff up in the yard:’)

That's wishful thinking there CindyDawg. It doesn't work that way at my house anymore than it does at yours. :-))

[lonestar]

Where are y’all?

[abb]

Hanna is struggling to survive wind shear. NHC is barely keeping Hanna at Tropical Storm status for the 5PM update.

Excellent news. The Drive-By Media and the Wishcasters will be saddened.

[blam]

BFL

[nwctwx]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2008

the center of Gustav made landfall along the eastern tip of Jamaica
at about 1800 UTC today...based on flight-level wind data from an
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that was able to fly through the
center near that time. Flight-level wind speeds indicated that
Gustav was right near the threshold between tropical storm and
hurricane intensity...but the data were not quite convincing enough
to increase the intensity which remains 60 kt. The aircraft
subsequently detected the center located inland over the eastern
portion of the Island. A little weakening is forecast in the short
term as Gustav interacts with land...but once it emerges over the
open waters of the northwestern Caribbean by tomorrow...conditions
appear rather favorable for strengthening. Due to the very warm
waters south of Cuba...combined with anticyclonic flow aloft...it
is possible that Gustav could rapidly intensify at some point
within the next couple of days...although that is not explicitly
shown in the official forecast. Conditions over the Gulf are not
forecast to be prohibitive for strengthening either...so Gustav
could reach major hurricane status within a few days...as forecast
by essentially all available intensity guidance.

Gustav is responding to the mid-level ridge to its north by
continuing westward at about 275/5. A weakness developing in that
ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two
should impart a gradual right turn across the northwestern
Caribbean and generally into the central Gulf. Track model
guidance is mostly in good agreement on a track near or over the
westernmost provinces of Cuba in a couple of days. The model
spread increases over the Gulf...however...both in terms of path
and forward speed...bounded by the fast GFDL on the right and a
much slower GFS on the left. Despite some changes in the
individual model tracks...the consensus has barely budged and the
new official track forecast is very similar to the previous one.
Since track forecasts are always subject to large errors at 3-5
days...and especially given the notable model spread over the Gulf
of Mexico...it is simply impossible to determine exactly where and
when Gustav will make final landfall. In fact...taking into
account the uncertainties in track...intensity...and size
forecasts...the chances of hurricane-force winds within the next
five days are essentially the same at each individual location from
the Florida Panhandle coast westward through the entire coastline
of Louisiana.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/2100z 18.1n 76.6w 60 kt
12hr VT 29/0600z 18.4n 77.8w 55 kt...inland over Jamaica
24hr VT 29/1800z 19.1n 79.7w 70 kt
36hr VT 30/0600z 20.1n 81.7w 80 kt
48hr VT 30/1800z 21.5n 83.6w 95 kt
72hr VT 31/1800z 25.0n 87.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 01/1800z 28.0n 89.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 02/1800z 30.0n 91.5w 85 kt...inland

$$
forecaster Knabb

[girlscout]

I’m in Seabrook ... between Houston and Galveston on the coast.

[girlscout]

Where are you?

[nwctwx]

Meanwhile, Hanna is still forecast to become a hurricane..

[WorkerbeeCitizen]

Thanx for the ping NN

[NautiNurse]

Hanna looks like Pacman:

[sheikdetailfeather]

Tom Terry, Chief Meteorologist on WFTV in Orlando said just now that there could be another high pressure system to the north of where Gustav hits around New Orleans and that could stall the storm around that area.

[eastforker]

If L96 goes west like the model predict will that in turn pull gustav further west?

[texasredtop]

I’m just north of you, in Deer Park. I guess we’ll be storm watching this holiday weekend. Let’s just hope we don’t have to make a dash out-of-town.

[GOPJ]

Thanks for the ping.

[texasredtop]

Anyone else anxious to see how Bobby Jindal handles this situation? Thank heavens Blanco is out of the picture!

[girlscout]

I’m just north of you, in Deer Park. I guess we’ll be storm watching this holiday weekend. Let’s just hope we don’t have to make a dash out-of-town.

It's going to take a Cat 5 for me to ever even consider evacuating again. What a nightmare!

Storm watching ... a great way to spend a long holiday weekend. :-)) At least we'll have more personal time to tend to security needs should it look like old Gus is headed towards us. Stay safe!

[lonestar]

Jasper

[texasredtop]

I’m only guessing that you are younger than I am so forgive me if I’m wrong. When I was a child in Louisiana I went through Carla and Audrey. I will be outta here so fast at a 3, 4 or 5. It can be horrific. Alicia was a snoozer so please don’t use that as comparison. We’ve had worse tropical depressions around here than Hurricane Alicia. I know it was a nightmare evacuating Rita but consider lots of people are not going to do that again. I had just been home a few weeks after evacuating for Katrina (we were there for the weekend) so I felt like “oh no, not again” but regardless, I got out there and drove the first 60 miles in 13 hours. I just kept inching my way west to safety. It was unnecessary as it turns out but better safe than sorry.

Thanks and you stay safe too.

[lonestar]

You have water-worries; we have trees. We looked like a war zone after Rita.

I like Seabrook seafood!