Posted on 08/25/2008 8:27:52 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the eastern Caribbean.
Buoy Data:
East Caribbean Buoys
West Caribbean Buoys
Florida Buoys
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
I think the current continintal-US record is 48 inches, dropped by TS Amelia on Medina, TX in 1978.
Just kidding you know we all love you and really do appreciate what you do!
Wow 4 feet of rain that enormous.Thanks.
Yeah, it’s a sad place. BTW love your tagline!
susie
Thanks,my take is that no matter how much we do for the troops its never enough.
"A rainfall of 43.0 inches was recorded in a 24-hour period near Alvin, Texas on July 25-26, 1979. The flooding produced by the record rainfall was one of the major disasters in the United States during 1979. The Federal Emergency Management Administration estimates damage from the resultant flooding at $231 million.
You should take care saying that around Floridians.
Conditions should initially be quite favorable in the Gulf of Mexico should Gustav enter without being degraded by land too much. After that it’s a little too far out to say with any real confidence. I do think the storm will have a chance to run at major hurricane status though.
Hiya 1CM, sure hope it doesn’t do like Fay.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2008
...Gustav moving northwestward toward Hispaniola...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the southern border of
Haiti...and for the southwest peninsula of Haiti from the southern
border with the Dominican Republic and Port-au-Prince westward. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Haiti from north of
Port-au-Prince to the northern border of the Dominican Republic. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic
has changed the Hurricane Warning east of Barahona to a Tropical
Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the
South Coast of the Dominican Republic east of Barahona to Santo
Domingo.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was
located near latitude 16.3 north...longitude 71.0 west or about 180
miles...290 km...south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti.
Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and
a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple
of days. On the forecast track the center of Gustav will be moving
near or over Haiti on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
Gustav could become a hurricane prior to moving over land.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb...29.41 inches.
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 7
inches over Hispaniola...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 to 25
inches possible. These intense rains may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...16.3 N...71.0 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...996 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
You’re right, though I was referring more to the islands prior to FL keeping it from strengthening to full potential. New NHC 5 day track takes it across the whole length of Cuba just about.. though I think this will trend further south with time.
Tropical Storm Gustav Discussion Number 3
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2008
After its rather rapid increase in organization earlier today...the
cloud pattern associated with Gustav has become a little
ragged-looking...particularly near the center. The Air Force
hurricane hunters reported a very small area of strong winds just
to the southeast of the center with a peak flight level wind speed
of 67 kt. Using a 75 percent ratio of surface to flight level
winds appropriate for the 925 mb flight altitude gives 50 kt for
the intensity estimate. Assuming the currently less-organized
appearance of the cyclone is merely temporary...strengthening is
likely given the apparently favorable meteorological and oceanic
conditions. Later in the forecast period...the strength of Gustav
will obviously be a strong function of how much the circulation
interacts with land. Interestingly...the GFS continues to fail to
show development of the cyclone and the U.K. Met office global
model shows weakening.
The initial motion continues toward the northwest...315/12. The
global models depict a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered near
Florida over the next several days. The steering currents
associated with this feature should cause the motion of Gustav to
gradually Bend toward the left and this is also shown by the
official track forecast...which is slightly west of the previous
one. Some of the track models such as the GFDL and HWRF are to the
left of this NHC forecast. Note that there is substantial
uncertainty in the 4 and 5 day forecast positions...and one should
not focus on these precise points.
The wind radii were decreased a little since the aircraft
observations showed that Gustav is a little smaller than earlier
estimated.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 25/2100z 16.3n 71.0w 50 kt
12hr VT 26/0600z 17.2n 72.0w 60 kt
24hr VT 26/1800z 18.4n 73.3w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 27/0600z 19.4n 74.4w 65 kt
48hr VT 27/1800z 20.2n 75.5w 65 kt...inland
72hr VT 28/1800z 21.3n 77.5w 55 kt...inland
96hr VT 29/1800z 22.0n 79.0w 50 kt...inland
120hr VT 30/1800z 23.0n 81.0w 50 kt...inland
$$
forecaster Pasch
Hey,WB,,,
Ya’ got that rite about Fay,,,
Sure looks like this one is heading for the Gulf...
We ended up with over 30 inches of rain outta her and we still have a flooded neighborhood.
Heck, my boat is still 3 feet up from the dock.
The weather is fine here now. I don’t think you have too much to worry about in the western panhandle tomorrow. The sun is out. We’ve had the occasional rain shower over the past couple days, but nothing out of the ordinary.
Well not South Texas. We will wait for one with a name that we can pronounce.
****trail of breadcrumbs****
I knew what you meant. :)
A track further south would aim her at us though. :(
I spent yesterday picking those up from the yard. One of the neighbors actually got his to burn but I don't know how.
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