Tropical Storm Fay

NOAA/NHC ^ | 15 August 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

The tropical system currently over Hispanola has been teasing weather watchers for days, as hurricane hunters were unable to locate a surface center of circulation. Meanwhile, the system has looked remarkably like a tropical depression for greater than 24 hours. Local Florida weather forecasters are urging Floridians to keep a close eye on this system.

Updates:

Atlantic Tropical Info

Satellite:

Visible Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
Water Vapor Image Loop
RGB (Vis/IR combo) Image Loop
Funktop Image Loop

Caribbean Buoys
Western Atlantic Buoys
Florida Buoys

Radar

Puerto Rico
Guantanimo Bay Cuba
Key West
Bahamas
Miami
Florida Loop

Storm Track Models

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[lexington minuteman 1775]

Hi Nauti!
Keeping a watchful eye on this storm from Jacksonville. and keeping the prayers up for all of us who live in hurricane country.

[Old Professer]

Way back before you know who made corporal, I was in the ANG with a guy named Fay Kay Ray; he swore one day he was gonna get his mama back.

[NautiNurse]

[LadyPilgrim]

Thank you for the ping, dear one!
Maybe some of these storms will at least drop some rain here in my area! I hope, I hope! ;-))

[nwctwx]

It was initialized as Fay on the models around 4pm, which is always a precursor to NHC naming a system.

[NautiNurse]

I only read Dr. Masters’ blog. None of the comments.

[Red Badger]

Why do people doom their children with such ignominious names?.....................

[nwctwx]

the model tracks have consistently gone west over the last day or two. i would not be surprised if this spends much less time overland than this track would suggest - and it ultimately ends up being further west in the gulf of mexico.

[milwguy]

Yep...been watching this since monday and was surprised more attention was not paid. I don’t like the track it is on or the way it has developed since yesterday. Starting to look more and more organized.

[Old Professer]

Same reason they eat pickles and ice cream...

[abb]

I only read Dr. Masters’ blog. None of the comments.

That's a good thing, I think. I should probably stop reading all the blog commentary. It's like dozens of Joe Bastardis all talking at once.

[Old Professer]

Shear?

[nwctwx]

The NHC has become wishcasters instead of forecasters.

there is a low level circulation, and there are a whole bunch of public products that come out of classifying a storm. this is now possibly well within 5 days of being a threat to the U.S. and a very small deviation to the left of expected track can have massive implications on intensity. no reason not to start getting people tuned in.

[abb]

I think the NHC caved to pressure from the TV weather types. They skipped the TD stage altogether. Just my opinion only.

[Jacquerie]

I stopped reading Master's wx blog a couple years ago after he posted a stark raving mad moonbat blog on President Bush that would have made a code pinko blush.

I wish academicians would stick to their field of expertise. I won't put advertising $ in his pocket by visiting his site.

[Elle Bee]

looks like some weather for the Keys

.

[abb]

I must acknowledge too that as I get older I get more cynical about everything government. Even the NHC.

[Islander7]

No correction needed. I checked the NHC website. There was nothing there to indicate your posting as correct. Guess you have ‘inside’ info that is ahead of their website updates.

[nwctwx]

not yet, the storm is basically rounding the base of a high pressure to its north. outflow has been stunning for a non-named storm last day or so. if it wasn’t over land right now it could really be getting its act together since a surface reflection of the circulation finally formed.

[nwctwx]

There’s really not much difference between a wave and a 40mph storm in the end. There was a circulation on radar as well as indicated by recon, so I would tend to side with this call.