Tropical Storm Fay

NOAA/NHC ^ | 15 August 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

The tropical system currently over Hispanola has been teasing weather watchers for days, as hurricane hunters were unable to locate a surface center of circulation. Meanwhile, the system has looked remarkably like a tropical depression for greater than 24 hours. Local Florida weather forecasters are urging Floridians to keep a close eye on this system.

Updates:

Atlantic Tropical Info

Satellite:

Visible Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
Water Vapor Image Loop
RGB (Vis/IR combo) Image Loop
Funktop Image Loop

Caribbean Buoys
Western Atlantic Buoys
Florida Buoys

Radar

Puerto Rico
Guantanimo Bay Cuba
Key West
Bahamas
Miami
Florida Loop

Storm Track Models

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NonValueAdded]

3 arrested in Barefoot Bay, stealing aluminum within 3 hrs of the tornado strike.

[NautiNurse]

The beach erosion is only going to get worse in the next few days while Fay creeps along the coast.

[Twink]

Thanks for the info.

She’s been there since Thursday so they’ve done just about every park, even today. They went to Magic Kingdom until early afternoon and she sent me a text once they got home. They’re there until Saturday. She said it was “pouring rain and windy” since late afternoon. And, all the other texts were her worrying about the weather reports.

Thanks again for the info. Much appreciated :)

[NautiNurse]

Photos 36-40 might be the Shell station in Stuart that was stuck by a tornado.

[smug]

My own eyeballing method sees Fay coming back across Fl. and out into the Gulf around 20 miles N. of Cedar Key and back N. into Fl. around Mexico Beach.

[NautiNurse]

It is impossible to appreciate the power of these storms without going through one or more. Each one is different, and Fay has been one surprise after another. The slow moving ones will wear down even nerves of steel.

Thanks again for your local reports. I look forward to hearing soon that all is calm and bright in your neighborhood.

[Twink]

Thanks for the link.

Thanks for everything else you said, too. :)

[blam]

'Boomerang' Fay Gains Strength Over Florida

[STARWISE]

Likely so. The erosion is awful on the beach.
So is the flooding ..

This is the kind of cane that wears down
everything and everyone in its path. I’m sure
those folks are getting close to their last nerve.

I swear that mobile home community is my
late uncle’s. Wish they had titled the pics.

[lainie]

that’s so weird.

Like, how far west (or sw)?

[3D-JOY]

Barefoot Bay...South Brevard and off US1

[rdl6989]

I hope you are ok. Prayers sent.

[nwctwx]

Fay is just about to exit back into the water near Melbourne.

[eastforker]

Been watching that, still in good shape to regain strength. Will come back as hurricane fay, but as a 1 I hope and not stronger.

[eastforker]

I think I spoke too soon, it looks like it may have changed back to a north/nnw direction.

[kevinw]

“Fay” is not an ignominious name. My church’s secretary is named Faye.

[rdl6989]

Fay may end up setting a record for the number of landfalls.

[WorkerbeeCitizen]

Fay is sitting right on top of Melbourne - she was sitting on top of Melbourne when I went to bed.
It looks like she is moving on a little but her movement is NW along the coast.
We are still receiving copious quantities of rain and the wind is around a steady 40mph with gusts to 50mph or so.

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 20, 2008

...Fay moving slowly northward along the East Coast of central
Florida...
...Tropical Storm Warning extended northward...

at 500 am EDT...0900 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning has been
extended northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia. A Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect from north of Jupiter Inlet Florida
northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from north of Flagler Beach
Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Altamaha
Sound to the Savannah River.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located
near latitude 28.2 north...longitude 80.6 west or very near
Melbourne Florida and about 15 miles... 20 km...south of Cape
Canaveral Florida.

Fay is moving toward the north near 5 mph...7 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue today. A gradual turn toward the
northwest is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours and Fay is
likely to remain near or over the east-central and northeastern
Florida coast through Thursday.

Surface observations and National Weather Service Doppler radar data
indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph...85
km/hr...with higher gusts...mostly over water well to the east of
the center. Some gradual restrengthening is possible during the
next 24 hours before Fay moves back inland over northeastern
Florida on Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches.

Fay is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
over east-central and northeastern Florida...with maximum total
amounts of 15 inches. Accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible
in the northwestern Bahamas.

Storm tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible along the
East Coast of Florida to the north of the center of Fay.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of northeastern
Florida.

Repeating the 500 am EDT position...28.2 N...80.6 W. Movement
toward...north near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...993 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Franklin

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 19

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 20, 2008

Tropical Storm Fay has turned slowly northward after finally
reaching the east-central Florida coast early this morning.
However...the center remains just inland along the coast north of
Melbourne Florida and may not emerge over the Atlantic Ocean until
this afternoon when Fay is expected to move north of the Cape
Canaveral area. Most of the global models are now indicating a
tighter turn to the northwest and then a sharper westward jog
across North Florida after 36 hours and into the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico by 72 hours. The GFDL and HWRF models are exceptions to
this scenario and keep Fay moving northwestward across Georgia and
Alabama...but even those models are no longer taking Fay east of
80w longitude. The official forecast track is a little to the
south...or left...of the previous forecast track and is similar to
but slower than the model consensus.

The possibility of Fay reaching hurricane strength is becoming
smaller now that Fay is moving northward along the coast and is not
expected to move more than 30 nm offshore during the next 24 to 36
hours. Even if Fay does move a little farther to the east of the
forecast track...NOAA buoy data indicates that sea-surface
temperatures have decreased by as much as 3 celsius...which is
considerably cooler than what the SHIPS intensity model is
incorporating. The GFDL and HWRF are also no longer forecasting Fay
to reach hurricane strength. Fay has maintained good convective
banding features and is located in a region of good upper-level
outflow...so some modest intensification is still possible. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and
the SHIPS model. However...if Fay remains farther west and closer
to land...then the current intensity forecast will likely be too
high through 36 hours. If Fay moves south of the forecast track and
over the Gulf of Mexico... then intensity forecast will be too low
after 72 hours.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/0900z 28.2n 80.6w 45 kt...just inland
12hr VT 20/1800z 28.8n 80.6w 50 kt
24hr VT 21/0600z 29.3n 80.9w 60 kt
36hr VT 21/1800z 29.6n 81.5w 50 kt...inland
48hr VT 22/0600z 30.0n 82.5w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 23/0600z 30.4n 84.1w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 24/0600z 30.7n 86.0w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 25/0600z 31.0n 88.0w 25 kt...inland

$$
forecaster Stewart