Posted on 08/15/2008 1:25:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse
The tropical system currently over Hispanola has been teasing weather watchers for days, as hurricane hunters were unable to locate a surface center of circulation. Meanwhile, the system has looked remarkably like a tropical depression for greater than 24 hours. Local Florida weather forecasters are urging Floridians to keep a close eye on this system.
Updates:
Satellite:
Visible Image Loop
Infrared Image Loop
Water Vapor Image Loop
RGB (Vis/IR combo) Image Loop
Funktop Image Loop
Caribbean Buoys
Western Atlantic Buoys
Florida Buoys
Radar
Puerto Rico
Guantanimo Bay Cuba
Key West
Bahamas
Miami
Florida Loop
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
All of the weather stations I’ve seen are showing decreased winds and increasing pressure.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2008
...Fay weakens some more while over Florida..
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Jupiter Inlet to Flagler Beach...and for Lake
Okeechobee.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida East Coast north of
Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound...Georgia.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to
the Savannah River.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 27.7 north...longitude 80.7 west or about 30
miles... 45 km...south-southwest of Melbourne Florida.
Fay has been moving erratically over the past few hours but is
expected to move toward the north-northeast near 5 mph...7
km/hr...overnight. A gradual turn toward the north is expected
during the next 12 to 24 hours. On this track...the center of Fay
will move just offshore over the Atlantic waters on Wednesday. Fay
is likely to remain near or over the northeast or east-central
Florida coast through Thursday.
Surface observations and National Weather Service Doppler radar data
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50
mph...85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some further weakening is
expected overnight but Fay will likely begin to restrengthen when
it moves over the Atlantic waters on Wednesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.
Fay is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
over east-central and northeastern Florida...with maximum total
amounts of 15 inches. Accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible
in the northwestern Bahamas.
Storm tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible along the
East Coast of Florida as Fay approaches.
Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and early Wednesday over
portions of the east-central Florida Peninsula.
Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...27.7 N...80.7 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...990 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 18
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2008
After Fay’s unexpected strengthening episode over the Florida
Peninsula earlier today...the storm is now behaving in a more
normal fashion. The satellite and radar presentation has
degraded...with the eye no longer evident...and surface
observations suggest that the maximum winds have decreased to
around 45 kt. Fay will probably weaken a little more while its
center is over land. The upper-level outflow pattern as depicted
by animated water vapor imagery is quite impressive. Therefore Fay
is likely to commence restrengthening when it moves back over water
on Wednesday. The official intensity prediction is similar to the
latest SHIPS forecast. It should be noted that both the GFDL and
HWRF models show more strengthening than indicated by the official
forecast. Of course...the future intensity of Fay is also strongly
dependent on how long the center stays over water.
Radar fixes showed that Fay nearly stalled a few hours ago...and
then wobbled a little to the east. Currently it appears that the
center is back on a north-northeastward track...or 030/4. Global
models continue to indicate a building 500 mb ridge to the north of
Fay over the next 1 to 2 days. This evolution of the steering
pattern would begin to block the northward progress of the tropical
cyclone within about 48 hours. Track models are in fairly good
agreement that Fay will turn back toward the coast after moving
just offshore. There has not been much change to the NHC track
forecast on this package. This is close to or a little south of
the dynamical model consensus.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/0300z 27.7n 80.7w 45 kt
12hr VT 20/1200z 28.4n 80.3w 50 kt
24hr VT 21/0000z 29.0n 80.2w 60 kt
36hr VT 21/1200z 29.5n 80.8w 65 kt
48hr VT 22/0000z 29.9n 81.7w 65 kt...inland
72hr VT 23/0000z 30.5n 83.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 24/0000z 31.0n 85.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 25/0000z 32.0n 87.5w 20 kt...inland...remnant low
$$
forecaster Pasch
Yes—and it’s been awhile since I’ve seen that one.
I've been in those lines ... not fun. Card Sound Rd. route is misery on wheels.
~~~
Weather Channel -- out briefly at St. Augustine, then swinging back inland to around the Big Bend area, where it gradually weakens. Time lapse for this action: about 36 hours, I believe.
Fay! We knew you TOO well.
I have a question...I’ve been trying to follow this thread and watching the Weather Channel. What’s going on in Kissimee/Orlando?
My 12 yr old is there with family friends. She’s been texting me, a little worried about the tornado watch/warning and the hurricane. I’m trying to be comforting and nonchalant about it all with her but I don’t know what’s going on there.
It sounds like she knows to text, not call, if cell towers go out - that’s good.
Well it has been very nice of Fay to swing so far south and east of Ocala, where basically there was no rain and moderate wind today. So now it is turning around and we are back in the cone for Thursday night. If this thing goes into the Gulf again, it may be the first tropical storm to affect every county in Florida.
Orange County is also one of several counties under flash flood watch and inland wind warning.
It's not a good time for folks to be walking around outside. The weather is likely putting a crimp into their vacation plans.
Thanks NN....I wasn’t too active on this thread. I’ve been travelling and busy with work.
It got a little hairy here in Jupiter earlier. My power was out for about 4 hours and a lot of the local roads were impassable at some point.
People that “poo poo” storms like Fay don’t see the localized flooding or the tornados. They don’t see the ripped apart roofs of businesses.
They only look at some certain mph wind speed put on the weather channel and think it is nothing but another thunder storm.
I think Fay has been fascinating. As someone who has seen Homestead in 92 and had 3 eyes go over his head in 05, I respect these storms and what they can do. I’d be an idiot not to.
I look forward to leaning on you the rest of the season (and hopefully helping you out as well).
Looks like an exit through southern Brevard - Grant maybe? - and re-entry at the northern border of Flagler County, just south of St. Augustine, but they were hedging that re-entry big time.
Per WFTV the storm has weakened but now she will strengthen and turn around in the Atlantic as a hurricane and come right back to the Northern edge of Flagler by the afternoon hours on Thursday. That is the new official track. The WFTV in-house models at WFTV the chief meteorologist, Tom Terry said he is still rendering show it coming in further south right back into Central Florida! Tom Terry called the Charley turn before the National Weather Service. He is very good.
Oh, she’s our texting queen and the reason we went to unlimited texting on our family plan, lol. She’s not chatty on the phone but loves to text.
I’m in touch with the parents. I have no worries other than just trying to ease her fears while being informed. It’s her first time far away from us, too.
Slideshow of flooding and storm damage
from the Palm Beach Post.
Note the devastating damage to the Palm
Beach Equine Center ...photos 44-50. Sad.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/storm/slideshows/2008_storms/fay/
Another reverse-911 call came in at this late hour. Said no trash pickup tomorrow. Kinda ridiculous at first but as they advised residents NOT to put out trash and to bring in what is already out, it makes much sense. Especially if we're gonna get it coming and going.
calling it a night. hope everyone is OK. bookmark.
Man O Man!!
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