Conditions should be favorable for development and already pretty close into the U.S.
Posted on 08/02/2008 11:46:18 AM PDT by nwctwx
Conditions should be favorable for development and already pretty close into the U.S.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS LIBERTY...HARRIS...JACKSON...AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE.
And that’s just what they’re saying now. Hang on.
nnnojeh It looks like it will be south of the outlaws. Is this headed toward our chilluns?
Chilluns, if it is, hurry up and get on the road out of TX!!!!!
Yeah. I was just looking at the cone though. Come Wed, it looked like the upper river might just be in it.
What do they mean by “Invest”, as in “Invest90L” etc.?
I believe you are referring to the Great Hurricane of 1900 which wiped out Galveston with over 8,000 killed. Still’ the worst natural didaster in U.S. history.
I just called my Dad. He says he’s ready but wasn’t too worried because those cracks in his yard will just drink it up.
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
An area that could develop into a tropical depression.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 7:00 PM CDT on August 03, 2008
...Edouard moving slowly westward...hurricane watches or warnings
may be required later tonight...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Louisiana coast
from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward to Intracoastal
City. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect west of Intracoastal City
to Port Oconnor Texas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 700 PM CDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was
located near latitude 28.1 north...longitude 88.2 west or about 90
miles...145 km...southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and
about 415 miles...670 km...east-southeast of Galveston Texas.
Edouard is moving toward the west near 4 mph...6 km/hr...and
a general motion toward the west or west-northwest is forecast
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track...the center
of the cyclone will move parallel to the Louisiana coast tonight
and Monday...and be very near the coast of southwestern Louisiana or
the Upper Texas coast on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Edouard could be nearing hurricane strength before
landfall.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Storm surge of 2 to 4 ft above normal tide levels can be expected in
the warning area in areas of onshore flow.
Edouard is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2
inches along the the Louisiana coast with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 3 inches. Once the system moves to the Upper Texas
coast...total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible over southeastern Texas.
Repeating the 700 PM CDT position...28.1 N...88.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 4 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Franklin
Thanks.
Here’s the bad thing. It’s moving slowly westward in very favorable waters, with not a lot a shear, nor drawing in much dry air.
In other words, there is no reason why it shouldn’t continue to strengthen.
The slower it goes, the more time for strenghtening, although if it remains slow, maybe some people will hear about it before it’s on them. It’s already going to catch many people unaware.
The good news is that it is relatively close to land, and should remain in close proximity for the duration of its trek.
Storm clouds have now formed and the winds are whipping up outside. You should see my big pecan tree dancing around outside. The news folks are now flashing severe thunderstorm warning banners on the bottom of the TV screen. I border Harris and Galveston Counties on Galveston Bay. My area falls in the severe thunderstorm “watch” area. Right now I’m watching it rain. FYI ... the 4 wheeler has found a spot in the garage. The trailer, however, has not.
I’m not sure how much of a help that is. You get some surface friction from the land, but if the center is over the hot coastal waters and moving, that more than compensates for the friction.
A drop of 5mb in pressure in 90 minutes. Practically unheard of.
This is a real storm.
Well, this thunderstorm has knocked out my Dish for a bit. Par for the course.
I’m up the road a piece from you in Chambers Co. about a mile from Trinity Bay. We just had a severe storm come through. I believe it’s the same storm as yours. It came from the East.
“Tropical Storm Edouard forms in Gulf’s oil area”.
MesSNBC could have picked a better title.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26000210/
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