Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.
This tracks it further north and has been edging a little further north every time it updates.https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_04
The XTRP(black with triangle) is a straight line of the movement for the last 12 hours. This overall movement to the norh is happening slowly but steadily.
Good thing I booked this year’s cruise for October. Looks like I’ll spend the next two months worrying about these suckers. We’ve had Cape Verde AND western Caribbean storms already this early in the season.
Well that ain’t good,,,
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
Sure looks like it’s movin’ more north to me,,,
And growing...:0/
Tell us the snake stories.
What rivers are you near?
San Jacinto river on lake Houston, eastfork!
TANKS,,,Got It,,,
Sure looks like Texas coast,,,
12 hrs. or so will give us a better idea...
All of a sudden this doesn’t feel like a TX or even LA storm... further east?
It left a tree on my house but I was long gone...for a month!
Ooooops.
WUG has a red link under Wednesday that says Hurricane Dolly. It takes you to the track page. I see under closer examination that it won’t be a category 1 until Wednesday. Sure hope it is not dangerous and that it veers North. We need the rain so bad I can’t tell ya. Its so dry here I’m having trouble keeping my eyeballs moist.
Between Neches and Sabine here.
If this storm goes through the straight between the yucatan and cuba my bet would be hurricane by monday PM.
Dolly could be a hurricane pretty fast. Structure continues to improve rapidly and there is almos the appearance of an eye wanting to develop. Unfortunately it looks more and more like it’s not going to hit much land before heading into the Gulf.
so I can find my spot in the AM
thread marker
The link at post #121(the black one)shows straight line of
the movement for the last 12 hours.
Best I can see that’s Corpus area,,,
Still too early to tell...
The last frame of the latest water vapor did a little jog back to the left wich I expected, even more so once it hits the gulf in the late AM and then I expect the slow curve north.
I agree,,,
JMHO : If it misses the Yucatan it could go to a CAT-3,,,
I don’t think this storm could get as far as Louisiana. There’s a pretty rock solid summer ridge of high pressure which is just going to block the storm from turning into the central or eastern gulf.
Maybe that could miraculously disappear, but there’s not a model out there that says it will.
This could be a northern Mexico storm, although I have to think that’s less likely than it was even this afternoon. The center of the dang storm keeps reforming to the north, and while it was a slam dunk that it would hit the Yucatan south of Cozumel, I’m not so sure that’s the case anymore. The storm track has shifted even the the NHC hasn’t said so yet.
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