Rick Gosselin's NFL mock draft

DMN ^ | 4-18-08 | Rick Gosselin

[Dysart]

Bill Parcells won his first Super Bowl ring with a relentless pass rush.

The linebacker-driven 3-4 scheme of his New York Giants finished second in the NFL in sacks in 1986 with 59. Lawrence Taylor led the league with 20½ sacks on the way to being named the NFL's Most Valuable Player.

[Dysart]

Team

Player	Pos.	School
1. Miami	Vernon Gholston	DE	Ohio State
Comment: He'd move to OLB in a 3-4 scheme
2. St. Louis	Jake Long	OT	Michigan
Comment: Rams QB Marc Bulger gets pummeled every week
3. Atlanta	Glenn Dorsey	DT	LSU
Comment: Help arrives for NFL's 26th-ranked run defense
4. Oakland	Chris Long	DE	Virginia
Comment: Long's father Howie was Raiders Hall of Famer
5. Kansas City	Ryan Clady	OT	Boise State
Comment: Chiefs quarterbacks sacked AFC-high 55 times
6. NY Jets	Darren McFadden	RB	Arkansas
Comment: RB Thomas Jones was good, McFadden can be great
7. New England	Leodis McKelvin	CB	Troy
Comment: Departure of Asante Samuel leaves a hole
8. Baltimore	Matt Ryan	QB	Boston College
Comment: Passing attack needs an overhaul
9. Cincinnati	Keith Rivers	LB	Southern Cal
Comment: Leading tackler Landon Johnson left in free agency
10. New Orleans	Sedrick Ellis	DT	Southern Cal
Comment: The defensive tackle board will empty out quickly
11. Buffalo	Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie	CB	Tennessee State
Comment: Most talented coverage player on the board
12. Denver	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	Illinois
Comment: Has the big-play flair of Clinton Portis
13. Carolina	Branden Albert	G	Virginia
Comment: NFL's 29th-ranked offense needs better blockers
14. Chicago	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Oregon
Comment: Can be a two-back complement to Cedric Benson
15. Detroit	Derrick Harvey	DE	Florida
Comment: No more WRs in the first – it's time to address defense
16. Arizona	Mike Jenkins	CB	South Florida
Comment: You can't have enough cover corners in NFC West
17. Minnesota	Jeff Otah	OT	Pittsburgh
Comment: The holes will become wider for Adrian Peterson
18. Houston	Chris Williams	OT	Vanderbilt
Comment: No. 1 draft day need – left offensive tackle
19. Philadelphia	Devin Thomas	WR	Michigan State
Comment: His speed will stretch defenses for RB Brian Westbrook
20. Tampa Bay	Jamaal Charles	RB	Texas
Comment: The Buccaneers are desperate for some long runs
21. Washington	Kentwan Balmer	DE	North Carolina
Comment: Can't have enough defensive size up front in NFC East
22. Dallas	DeSean Jackson	WR	California
Comment: His punt returns mean shorter fields for Tony Romo
23. Pittsburgh	Jerod Mayo	LB	Tennessee
Comment: No one loves linebackers like the Steelers
24. Tennessee	Felix Jones	RB	Arkansas
Comment: No. 1 draft day need – offensive speed
25. Seattle	James Hardy	WR	Indiana
Comment: Big WR to complement all the little ones at Seattle
26. Jacksonville	Phillip Merling	DE	Clemson
Comment: Jaguars must replace two starting defensive linemen
27. San Diego	Chris Johnson	RB	East Carolina
Comment: Replaces Michael Turner as RB LaDainian Tomlinson's caddie
28. Dallas	Aqib Talib	CB	Kansas
Comment: The Cowboys might trade this pick
29. San Francisco	Brian Brohm	QB	Louisville
Comment: It doesn't appear Alex Smith is the answer
30. Green Bay	Fred Davis	TE	Southern Cal
Comment: A young QB will need quality underneath receivers
31. NY Giants	Limas Sweed	WR	Texas
Comment: The Giants love size on the flank

[Dysart]

FWIW, Gosselin’s mocks are the most accurate around, but I’d also check out his final effort, sometime in the next 2 wks.

[nickcarraway]

Please, the 49ers don’t need a QB in the first round. Offensive Line or defense. Nothing else.

[cdga5for4]

Rick’s a really good guy too. Know him quite well and he’s a good person. He’s as good as there is in that business. All of the GMs in the NFL know it. He just doesn’t blow his own horn like a lot of the other media types.

[Dysart]

49er fan? If so, picking up a replacement for A Smith is a great move. He just doesn't have IT.

BTW, Gosselin forms his opinion and forecasts exclusively by talking to GMs and other NFL personnel ppl. He never even watches tape of prospects, which I still find astounding. Anyway, something tells me the SF brain trust isn't exactly taken with Mr. Smith either.

[Dysart]

Agreed. And he’s a pretty smart due too.

[Dysart]

due=dude

[misterrob]

Pats won’t draft a CB at that position. They are looking for Ellis or Gholston to drop to them or they will be looking to trade down to grab Harvey or Groves and get a high second rounder to grab a CB.

KC is looking to dump one of their DEs so that will change their plans as well.

If Cincy drafts Rivers they are wasting that pick. He’s all athlete but not much upstairs. They want Ellis. Maybe they can dump Ocho Cinco for a 1st rounder?

[Dysart]

NE may well trade down if they can’t get one of their targets, but Gooselin goes ahead and fills out his 1st rd mock without regard to trades, however likely they may be. And I bet they’d like Gholston with their pick but NO WAY that will happen. He looks like a can’t-miss prospect.

Dallas would likely give the Bungles #28 for CJ if they’re game, and they can still get their guy. (I’d rather acquire Roy Williams- WR Det in a trade.)

[nickcarraway]

Look, I was 110% against picking Alex Smith in the first place. I thought they should have traded that draft pick. All along, I have never thought Smith would be good.

First of all, I don't think the 49ers have the ability right now to pick a good QB. They are better off going with a "safe pick" at a position that will definitely help the team. They need a new QB plan, but they can find one out there. They don't need to risk a first round pick on one.

They have desperately needed Offensive Line help for a long time. They can't lose if they get a good Offensive Lineman. Or, failing that, pass rush help.

Full Disclosure: Last year I thought they should have gone for OL. In theory, I was right. I thought taking Patrick Willis was a mistake. I am big enough to admit I was wrong. way wrong. Patrick Willis is a once-in-a-lifetime player. I hope they keep him forever. I don't easily compare players to the greats, but he rates. He has a real chance to be better than his coach, Mike Singletary. He amazed me from the first game on.

[Radix]

I love mock drafts when seen in hindsight a year or 2 later after the players are pros.

Unfortunately, I rarely get to watch college ball and so I know very few players.

[Dysart]

You bring up an interesting point. Hence, I found a 2005 Gosselin Mock for your amusement...

1. SAN FRANCISCO

Needs: QB, OL, DL, WR


Alex Smith, QB, Utah
Comment: The same agent (Tom Condon) who represented Eli Manning represents Smith. So this could be another draft-and-trade situation, like Manning in 2004. Smith wants to play in Florida where there's no state income tax. That would be an extra $5 million on a $50 million contract. Both the Dolphins and Bucs have an interest in Smith.


2. MIAMI

Needs: QB, RB, OT, WR


Ronnie Brown, HB, Auburn
Comment: The Dolphins need offensive playmakers across the board. If they can't get Smith, the choice would be between the top runner (Brown) and top receiver (Braylon Edwards). The Dolphins have a better chance of getting a quality receiver in subsequent rounds than a quality runner.


3. CLEVELAND

Needs: QB, WR, OT, DL


Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan
Comment: The Browns acquired a veteran quarterback (Trent Dilfer) and runner (Reuben Droughns) this off-season. Now they need a lead receiver for the NFL's 28th-ranked offense. Edwards might be the best player on the draft board.


4. CHICAGO

Needs: RB, speed WR, CB, OL depth


Carnell Williams, HB, Auburn
Comment: The Bears finished 25th in the NFL in rushing. If you can't run the ball in Chicago, you can't win. Cedric Benson and Carnell Williams are two attractive options. Williams has the added dimension of returning kicks.


5. TAMPA BAY

Needs: RB, WR, DT, K


Aaron Rodgers, QB, Cal
Comment: Jon Gruden without a quarterback is like Zorro without a mask. Without a triggerman, Gruden lacks a coaching identity – and he doesn't have a trigger in Tampa. The Bucs could wind up with Alex Smith by day's end.


6. TENNESSEE

Needs: CB, WR, RT, RB


Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami (Fla.)
Comment: When you play in the AFC South, you'd better be able to cover Peyton Manning's fleet of receivers. The Titans lost starting corners Samari Rolle and Andre Dyson in free agency. Rolle is a merger of need and value here.


7. MINNESOTA

Needs: WR, RB, DT, DE


Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina
Comment: The Vikings will miss Randy Moss. Williamson is the closest receiver to Moss on this draft board at 6-1, 203 with 4.32 40 speed. He averaged 49 yards per his 13 career touchdown catches.


8. ARIZONA

Needs: CB, HB, TE, QB


Cedric Benson, HB, Texas
Comment: With the retirement of Emmitt Smith, there's a gaping hole in the Arizona backfield. The Cardinals might trade for Travis Henry today. If not, the Cardinals can pull another back out of the state of Texas.


9. WASHINGTON

Needs: CB, WR, TE, big RB


Adam Jones, CB, West Virginia
Comment: Joe Gibbs wants a wide receiver badly, but there's better value on the board at cornerback. With Fred Smoot's departure, the Redskins need a walk-in starter. Jones will remind Gibbs of Darrell Green.


10. DETROIT

Needs: CB, G, physical WR, S


Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas
Comment: Bobby Layne, Doug English, Roy Williams – over the years the Lions have loved those Longhorns. Johnson is one of the most gifted defensive playmakers on the board with 11 forced fumbles and nine career interceptions.


11. DALLAS

Needs: Pass rush, size on defense, OT, WR


Shawne Merriman, DE, Maryland
Comment: Bill Parcells wants to get bigger on defense, and that's the determining factor in taking the 270-pound Merriman to line up at strongside linebacker. His arrival should toughen up the run defense.


12. SAN DIEGO

Needs: ILB, OL, DE, CB


Marcus Spears, DE, LSU
Comment: The Chargers managed only 29 sacks last season, the fewest of any playoff team. Spears had nine sacks in 2004 playing in the SEC and also makes the Chargers bigger (307 pounds) against the run.


13. HOUSTON

Needs: LB, OT, RB, Pass rusher


Demarcus Ware, OLB, Troy
Comment: Houston was a pass rusher away from contention. Now the NFL's worst pass rush gets the best pass rusher in the draft. Ware had 11 sacks in 12 games last season. The Texans themselves had only 24 sacks in 16 games.


14. CAROLINA

Needs: OT, WR, LB, QB


Mike Williams, WR, Southern Cal
Comment: The Panthers lost their possession receiver and goal-line force when Muhsin Muhammad left for the Bears in free agency. Williams is a TD maker with 30 in his two years in college. A lack of speed kept him out of the top 10.


15. KANSAS CITY

Needs: CB, S, speed WR, OT


Thomas Davis, S, Georgia
Comment: The Chiefs were one of the NFL's best teams in the 1990s because they played gritty, smash-mouth defense. But that defense has gotten soft this decade, and so have the Chiefs. Davis rattles teeth with his hitting ability.


16. NEW ORLEANS

Needs: DT, OT, LB, CB


Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn
Comment: With the signing of a safety (Dwight Smith) and offensive tackle (Jermane Mayberry) in free agency, the Saints have no glaring holes. They can take the best athlete available. Rogers is a steal at this pick.


17. CINCINNATI

Needs: CB, DL, LB speed, OL


Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin
Comment: The glut of 3-4 defenses (Dallas, San Diego and Houston) and end depth (Carolina and New Orleans) contributed to the slide of James. But he's the best 4-3 end in this draft and a bona fide pass rusher.


18. MINNESOTA

Needs: WR, RB, DT, DE


David Pollack, DE, Georgia
Comment: With Chris Hovan's departure, the Vikings need a high-energy player in their front seven. Pollack is high energy, and the artificial surface would provide ideal traction for his pass-rush skills.


19. ST. LOUIS

Needs: RT, Pass rusher, Size on def.


Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma
Comment: Marc Bulger was sacked 41 times for a league-high 302 yards in losses. Without pass protection, the Greatest Show on Turf is a carny act. Orlando Pace is a Pro Bowler on the left side. Brown is the draft's best right tackle.


20. DALLAS

Needs: Pass rush, size on defense, OT, WR


Luis Castillo, DT, Northwestern
Comment: Parcells wanted to get two defensive front-seven players, but that board emptied in the teens. The Cowboys will look to trade down. Failing there, the Cowboys will reach for the next best defensive lineman on his board.


21. JACKSONVILLE

Needs: CB, G, OT, Speed WR


Matt Jones, WR, Arkansas

Comment: The Jaguars have a talented but slow offense with Jimmy Smith and Fred Taylor getting up in the years. Jones is one of the most exciting and explosive athletes on the board with his 4.38 speed. The Jaguars dare to be bold.


22. BALTIMORE

Needs: DT, OT, WR, LB


Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma
Comment: What is it with the Ravens? No matter where they draft, a good player always slides to them. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed also were drafted in the 20s. Clayton will be a preseason NFL Rookie of the Year candidate.


23. SEATTLE

Needs: Defense, WR, RB, G


Alex Barron, OT, Florida State
Comment: The Seahawks have spent their money in the off-season rebuilding the NFL's 26th defense. The signing of Andre Dyson eases the need at corner. Look for the Seahawks to take the best player on the board at this point.


24. GREEN BAY

Needs: LB, S, OL, QB


Marlin Jackson, CB/S, Michigan
Comment: The Packers have long been of the belief that you draft big-school players who know how to play in the cold. An All-America cornerback from Michigan certainly qualifies. Jackson makes the secondary bigger and tougher.


25. WASHINGTON

Needs: CB, WR, TE, big RB


Jason Campbell, QB, Auburn
Comment: Joe Gibbs was embarrassed by the offensive play of the Redskins in 2004 (30th in the NFL) and wants to overhaul the passing game. He traded for Santana Moss for speed, now he drafts a quarterback who can get Moss the ball.


26. OAKLAND

Needs: CB, speed at LB, DE, OL


Fabian Washington, CB, Nebraska
Comment: Since Al Davis took over the Raiders in their AFL years back in the early 1960s, this franchise has been built on speed, speed and more speed. Washington is the fastest cornerback in the draft with a 4.29 40.


27. ATLANTA

Needs: DE, S, CB, WR


Shaun Cody, DT, Southern Cal
Comment: The good teams load up on defensive linemen, and the Falcons are now a good team. Cody is an inside pass rusher with 20 career sacks who can also swing outside and be a run-stopping end.


28. SAN DIEGO

Needs: ILB, OL, DE, CB


Roddy White, WR, UAB
Comment: San Diego's leading wide receiver last season caught only 47 passes. The Chargers need some help for tight end Antonio Gates and halfback LaDainian Tomlinson. White averaged 20 yards per catch last season.


29. INDIANAPOLIS

Needs: CB, S, MLB, DT


Brodney Pool, S, Oklahoma
Comment: The offense is Super Bowl ready. The defense isn't. The Colts need more size and more playmakers on that side of the ball and figure to draft three of them in the first day. Pool intercepted seven passes in 2003.


30. PITTSBURGH

Needs: RT, TE, WR, interior OL


Heath Miller, TE, Virginia
Comment: The top two tight ends on the Steelers combined for 16 catches in 2004. Pittsburgh needs to get Ben Roethlisberger a possession receiver. Miller set the ACC record with 144 catches by a tight end.


31. PHILADELPHIA

Needs: Depth at OT, LB, DT, RB


Chris Spencer, C, Mississippi
Comment: The Eagles have no holes on the roster, which gives them the luxury of drafting the best player on their board. Spencer can be an upgrade from Hank Fraley in 2006. This is the one team with the luxury of patience.


32. NEW ENGLAND

Needs: ILB, youth on defense, WR, DL


Marcus Johnson, G/T, Mississippi
Comment: Like the Eagles, the Patriots can draft for depth. Johnson can be an upgrade from Brandon Gorin at right tackle in 2006. He can also play guard. No team in the NFL covets versatility in its players like the Patriots.


TEAMS WITHOUT A FIRST_ROUND PICK


43. NY GIANTS

Needs: WR, LB, DE, CB


Justin Tuck, DE, Notre Dame
Comment: Michael Strahan is 34 this season and a new pass rusher must be developed. Tuck set a Notre Dame record with 131/2 sacks in 2003. He had 241/2 career sacks and is skipping his senior season to turn pro.


47. NY JETS

Needs: DT, RB, OL, CB


Stanford Routt, CB, Houston
Comment: Jets coach Herman Edwards was a big corner in the NFL himself, so he likes size in his secondary. Routt goes 6-1, 193 and is a former Conference USA sprint champion. He runs a 4.27 40. What's not to like?


55. BUFFALO

Needs: RB, blocking TE, S


Alex Smith, TE, Stanford
Comment: Smith has the hands to be a factor in the passing game, having caught 52 passes as a senior, and the body to be a factor in the running game at 6-4, 258 pounds. He caught 107 career passes at Stanford.


56. DENVER

Needs: CB, G, big WR, S


Vincent Jackson, WR, Northern Colorado
Comment: The Broncos won't even have to fly their top draft pick in. He can drive up from his home in Colorado Springs. Jackson is 6-4, 241 and runs a 4.46. He returns punts and kickoffs and averaged 20 yards per catch in his career.

[Radix]

I'll need more time to review what looks like a great post for me to peruse. Thanks.

A few years ago there was a book written about just how the N.E. Patriots accomplished their improved NFL stature.

I enjoyed it and a link is provided below. The book focused largely on their NFL draft strategy.

http://www.amazon.com/Patriot-Reign-Belichick-Coaches-Champion/dp/0060757949

[fkabuckeyesrule]

I don’t know about Gholston. The rap on him is that sometimes he seems to just disappear (i.e., like in BCS Championship Games).

[Dysart]

As promised, here's Goose's Top 100.

Rick Gosselin's NFL draft Top 100

[Dysart]

1-10

1-10

Rank, player	Pos.	School
1. Glenn Dorsey	DT	LSU
2. Darren McFadden	HB	Arkansas
3. Chris Long	DE	Virginia
4. Jake Long	OT	Michigan
5. Sedrick Ellis	DT	Southern California
6. Matt Ryan	QB	Boston College
7. Keith Rivers	LB	Southern California
8. Vernon Gholston	DE	Ohio State
9. Ryan Clady	OT	Boise State
10. Rashard Mendenhall	HB	Illinois