Posted on 12/02/2007 1:08:47 PM PST by diamond6
In the 10 years of the BCS era, we've seen pretty much everything.
Perhaps the only major development we've yet to see is a two-loss team in the BCS Championship Game. Later today, that one should become a reality.
The million-dollar question is: Which two-loss team will it be?
Jim Tressel has watched as other teams have helped Ohio State's title cause.
At least seven teams, including once-beaten Ohio State and Kansas, are likely to receive second-place votes in the polls. If the voters rank teams based on perceived strength (who would win on a neutral field), any number of championship game possibilities exist. But what if they vote on merit?
The Contenders It's always difficult to make assumptions when it comes to the BCS, but it would be shocking if Ohio State (11-1) didn't finish in the top two, and it would be fairly surprising if the Buckeyes weren't ranked No. 1. Here's a look at the teams in contention to face (presumably) OSU for all the marbles.
Immediately behind Ohio State in the current BCS standings are Georgia and Kansas, which failed to win their respective divisions in conference play. Some people might think this is no big deal because two teams in the BCS era have played for the national title without winning their conference championship. It should be pointed out, however, that neither of those teams -- Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 -- was ranked in the top two of the polls at the end of the regular season, so neither would have played for the title under the current BCS formula.
Georgia (10-2) is at a further disadvantage because it plays in the SEC, which was won by LSU (11-2), and the Bulldogs don't have a head-to-head win over the Tigers to strengthen Dawgs' case against the big cats.
Kansas (11-1) will get consideration for being the only major-conference team other than Ohio State with fewer than two losses, but the Jayhawks don't have a single victory over a team that's even receiving votes in the AP poll.
Virginia Tech (11-2) at least has a conference championship on its résumé, but the Hokies also have a 41-point loss to LSU that's hard for voters to ignore. And the Tigers' two losses, for whatever it's worth, did come in triple overtime.
USC (10-2) won the Pac-10, but as fate would have it, the Trojans ended up with just two wins over teams with a winning record (Arizona State and Oregon State). Even if that doesn't hurt them in the polls, it certainly will hold them back in the computers in relation to the other two-loss teams.
Then there's Big 12 champion Oklahoma (11-2), which should make a late surge after a convincing win over No. 1 Missouri (a squad OU topped for the second time this season). But will it be enough to help the Sooners climb all the way from No. 9 into the BCS top two?
Based on the current standings and what each team accomplished this season, I expect it to be Ohio State vs. LSU in the Allstate BCS Championship Game on Jan. 7 in New Orleans.
But that's based simply on logic, which left this 2007 season many, many weeks ago.
Projecting the BCS Projecting the BCS matchups is as difficult as ever, thanks in large part to the uncertainty over which teams will be playing in the championship game. Using my prediction of Ohio State vs. LSU as a starting point, here's how I expect the rest of the BCS bowls to be filled. If any team other than LSU is playing the Buckeyes, you can throw all of this out the window.
Let's start with the natural tie-ins. Big 12 champion Oklahoma goes to the Fiesta Bowl, Pac-10 winner USC goes to the Rose Bowl, and ACC champ Virginia Tech goes to the Orange Bowl.
Assuming Ohio State is ranked No. 1, the first pick belongs to the Rose, which must replace the Buckeyes. Illinois, which will become eligible for an at-large spot by moving into the BCS top 14, is the logical pick to preserve the game's Big Ten vs. Pac-10 tradition.
If LSU is ranked No. 2, the Sugar chooses next, and Georgia makes the most sense to fill the spot vacated by the SEC champion.
The next pick goes to the Orange Bowl, and this is where things get tricky. On the surface, West Virginia looks like the choice, but because of the deflating nature of WVU's season-ending loss, I can see the Orange going with Kansas. As an old Big Eight school, KU even has a traditional connection to that game.
If Kansas is taken by the Orange, the only teams available to the Fiesta would be West Virginia and Hawaii. In this case, the Fiesta would select WVU, which would leave Hawaii for the Sugar.
Allstate BCS National Championship Game Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs. LSU (SEC champ)
The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi USC (Pac-10 champ) vs. Illinois (at-large)
Allstate Sugar Bowl Georgia (at-large) vs. Hawaii (at-large)
FedEx Orange Bowl Virginia Tech (ACC champ) vs. Kansas (at-large)
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East champ)
Thank you, kabar.
Ok. I guess 167-48 in four games against two “top” teams from the SEC is not “dominating”.
Ha, ha, ha. That’s kind of absurd statement don’t you think?
Well, given that the SEC rarely plays ANYONE of merit outside of conference, that’s a lot of SEC opponents for USC, and the original post mentioned “the last five years”. Also, one of your SEC championship teams Tennessee, did venture out of your safe little cocoon back there to play the SEVENTH PLACE TEAM IN THE PAC-10 this year, Cal, and got their asses handed to them. And that 50-14 USC rout over Arkansas last year was against yet another SEC championship game participant. The SEC is the most overrated conference in the country and I only hope that somehow Georgia (your latest ‘hottest team in the country’) gets to the Rose Bowl this year to further reinforce the point. USC will rout them too.
diamond6, Kabar is right. Hawaii, might get some points in the first half, but by the second half, they would be broken. I stayed up and watched that game last night. I have watched a couple of Hawaii games and have been impressed, but I have also seen all of UGAs games and I really don’t think Hawaii would be in the top 6 or 7 teams in the SEC. South Carolina would be a good match up for them right now. With the injuries that they have had, I think Hawaii would beat them.
Well my “not strong team” beat OU - and We’re going to the Gator Bowl vs. The U of Virginia!!!!
I think he needed to take the time to read his post!!!
I know all about LSU beatdown of the Hokies in week 2 but if LSU at this point of the season is better than VT, why was VT ranked higher in the BCS last week? Both teams did win their conference championships this weekeend with VT beating #11 and LSU beating #14.
This BCS really blows and I am for the first time in favor of an 8 team playoff using the major bowls for the first round. I don't think VT should be in the championship game, only have a chance based on their performance at this point of the season to get there.
They had to have a stupid Ainge pass returned 20 yards for a touchdown to beat a Tennessee that went into 3+ overtimes in wins against Vanderbilt and Kentucky their last two games of the season.
The SEC championship looked like a boring b movie.
It's been 40 years since UGA went to the Rose and beat UCLA. It's the only BCS game Richt hasn't participated in and he says he would like to give it a go. Win or Lose, I think it would be a good match up.
“As a Georgia fan, I’d rather see Ga play Ohio State than USC. I’d probably be an easier game.”
And as a USC fan, I’d love to see Georgia play USC in the Rose Bowl — I think it would be an interesting match-up.
Do I sound bitter? You bet. Year after year this happens. Auburn, one of 3 undefeated top teams and likely the best team in the nation getting left out of the BcS should have been the death nail for this dumb scheme.
LSU also had a few very close wins.
It would be really funny if this match up attracted twice or more of the viewership than the fake National Championship.
The two teams that deserve to play for the title are Hawaii and Appalachian St.
At least Ap. St. is playing it out the real way. In a playoff. Too bad Delaware is going to have to pay the smack down on them in the final...
A playoff is so long overdue for I-A it isn’t even worth mentioning any more. It will never happen because some jerks won’t let it happen. So we end up with....garbage.
The BCS selection show is annoying
USC v. Illinois. That sucks!
I hate to equate this with politics, but do any of you feel like the BcS elitist are a lot like the pro-amnesty politicians that were determined to shove it down our throats even though 90% of America didn’t want it?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.