His prediction strikes me as perfect.
Are you aware how long it became a “perfect time to buy” after the collapse in the California housing market in 1990? Peak was 1990. The bottom came in 1996. That is 6 to 7 years.
Peak in this housing bubble came in 2005. Add 6 or 7 years and you have 2011 to 2012 — only the deflation in prices will be far greater due to the much higher magnitude of the run-up in prices to begin with. I’m only referring to cities in states subject to the housing bubble like Florida and California, although MOST of the country was affected and most of the nation’s neighborhoods will be affected.
As for whether or not the “entire economy will be dead,” this bursting asset bubble and liquidity problem is precisely why I have been expecting a recession in the US economy.
I completely buy that it won’t be a “perfect time to buy” until sometime around or after 2012.
Now, if inflation returns and the FED has to raise rates to 10%, then yes = ARMAGEDDON. We be a hurtin’.
The bottom is at least 3-4 years out, minimum.
Funny, NAR is a polictical shill (and MSM and other gov agencies), because, local gov's do not want to be forced to devalue homes because that spells lost tax revenues. Use to be on average, the tax man always kept the tax value of a home at 20% below market to take in to account the housing cycles, but, that's not the case anymore.
Because of their money addictions, many local gov's push values to 90-95% of the market 3-4 year average.
Think about it, here in my area, (RTP, NC), reassessments occurred every 8 years. NO more, now it's every 4 and many assessment just based upon drive by video.