“say 2012 to 2015.”
That is an Armageddon point of view of the housing market.
If that happens the entire economy will be dead.
I don’t buy it..
Don’t base your opinion on how bad it would be. Rather, base it on the numbers and let the predictions fall where they may.
You know how resets effect the market, right?
Well, look at the chart in this article and tell me when you think it implies (or you infer from it) that it might be a good time to buy:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/51466-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-for-housing?source=d_email
His prediction strikes me as perfect.
Are you aware how long it became a “perfect time to buy” after the collapse in the California housing market in 1990? Peak was 1990. The bottom came in 1996. That is 6 to 7 years.
Peak in this housing bubble came in 2005. Add 6 or 7 years and you have 2011 to 2012 — only the deflation in prices will be far greater due to the much higher magnitude of the run-up in prices to begin with. I’m only referring to cities in states subject to the housing bubble like Florida and California, although MOST of the country was affected and most of the nation’s neighborhoods will be affected.
As for whether or not the “entire economy will be dead,” this bursting asset bubble and liquidity problem is precisely why I have been expecting a recession in the US economy.
I completely buy that it won’t be a “perfect time to buy” until sometime around or after 2012.
Now, if inflation returns and the FED has to raise rates to 10%, then yes = ARMAGEDDON. We be a hurtin’.