[Clive]

This thread is in respect of the potential tropical cyclone showin on the chart off the Yucatan Peninsula.

For discussion of Tropical Depression Four, shown on the chart in mid Atlantic, go to this thread:

Tropical Depression Four [10N 30W - WSW of Cape Verde Islands]

[Red Badger]

Here we goooooooooo!...........................

[WakeUpAndVote]

Women, children and minorities will be greatly affected.

[xcamel]

Co-thread
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1880455/posts

[Clive]

The shaded risk area for the Yucutan system seems to have dropped off the chart leaving only Tropical Depression Four still showing, in respect of which there is different thread running.

[Pilsner]

[Leftism is Mentally Deranged]

A lot of people will be happy because they can say it is caused by global warming.

[avacado]

Bring it on! Time for some Texas surfing!

S. Padre Island, Texas - Katrina

[Pilsner]

[Clive]

This potential tropical cyclone formation is now Tropical Depression 5. Here is the NOAA Advisory 1:

NOAA TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007 1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED... AT 10PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 425 MILES...680 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ESTIMATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES...EARLIER THIS EVENING.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.9 N...91.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[JustDoItAlways]

I’m sorry, but the Gulf of Mexico tropical depression is rotating backwards.

It is just an accumulation of thunderstorms being pushed around by the weather systems surrounding it.

Tropical storm Dean in the Atlantic appears to be really weakening.

Sea Surface Temperatures in the Atlantic are below normal right now and there shouldn’t be any severe storms for awhile yet.

[JustDoItAlways]

Tropical Depression 5 does seem to have strengthened considerably overnight but it’s overall rotation is still slightly backwards (clockwise) which makes it a little unpredictable I guess.

[Clive]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 151438
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SO FAR THE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25-
KNOT WINDS. ON THE OTHER HAND....VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW.
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
12 KNOTS. THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY PACKED AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 25.4N 93.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 25.8N 95.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 26.5N 97.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 27.0N 99.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Clive]

Tropical Depression Five is now Tropical Storm Erin.

I have asked the moderator to change the name of the thread accordingly.