Posted on 08/13/2007 7:58:49 AM PDT by Strategerist
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007
...FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES...840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES...3220 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$ FORECASTER KNABB
Modelwise, looks like a potentially pretty dangerous storm long term.
Also a new INVEST in the Yucatan channel.
How would this be a "pretty dangerous storm long term"?
Just askin'....
Yikes, that sucker could hit Aruba....way below the usual hurricane belt.
Mainly because there is nothing in the forecast to recurve it into the central Atlantic.
That track would put it right across Puerto Rico and Cuba.
It gets pretty fuzzy out there at day 5. It could just as well track all the way down to Panama.
Good observation at this time. We have to have a strong front to come through or a major shift in the jet stream to curve those storms.
previous updates:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1880266/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1880020/posts
I predict Jim Cantori will be in a boat with a cameraman in 48 hrs to show how hard it is raining in the middle of the Atlantic. Not to mention, gasoline and oil will spike big by Thursday because “of the potential” to earn big bucks on the speculation and manipulation. NYMEX gasoline futures will rise 50 cents per gallon in 3 days even though demand is dropping as the new school year approaches.
Rough seas, wonder what might wash up...
Time to start hoarding gasoline. If this thing gets into the Gulf, gas prices will shoot up like a shuttle liftoff.
Already have it, thanks. BTW, I filled up my truck this morning at $2.54 a gallon for regular unleaded in Mobile.
No models show it turning away, and longer-term ones have landfalls from Texas to South Florida.
Tried to post in news but it got moved to chat - sigh. There were two previous threads on this but it was not an official tropical depression yet; now it is.
I’ve sensed a great deal of hostility from some to all tropical-related (or in some cases just plain weather.) things - guess from people not on the Atlantic or Gulf coasts, or that perceive every MENTION of anything tropical as “global warming hype.”
I’m just wondering at what point an official system (which many people spend time discussing here) gets to escape from “chat” to “news” (much less “breaking.”)
Impressive
That could cut right through Chavez’s oil fields! If they are put out of action the price of oil could go to $100 like he said, although he wouldn’t be selling much.
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