Skip to comments.Bank of America Securities: Mac installed base estimated at 22 million pre-Leopard
Posted on 03/02/2007 7:59:30 PM PST by Swordmaker
Apple Inc.'s install base of Mac OS X users will be approximately 22 million strong come the end of March, ahead of the company's next-generation Leopard operating system release, according to analysts at Bank of America Securities.
The figure is up by 6 million users since the Mac maker unwrapped its last major revision to the Mac operating system, Mac OS X 10.4 Tiger, back in June of 2005, analyst Keith Bachman told clients in research distributed earlier this week.
According to Bachman, major operating system releases are amongst the most lucrative for the Cupertino-based company, with gross margins that range upwards of 90 percent.
"At the time of product launch, Apple capitalizes the cost of software development and amortizes such cost over three years, meaning the Apples profit margins are very high at the time of product launch," he explained.
The securities analyst is forecasting the combined release of Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard and associated iLife '07 digital lifestyle suite to generate approximately $200 million in incremental revenue for Apple, compared to the $135 million drawn from Tiger.
"We believe that Apple will sell approximately $185 million of Leopard in the June and Sept quarters, which we assume will be biased to the June quarter, depending on the release date," he wrote. "We believe that Leopard will sell for around $129."
Bachman estimates the resulting impact of Leopard to generate $0.07 to $0.09 per share to Apple's combined June and September quarters. "Based on Leopard alone, we see upside tension to Street estimates for the June and Sept quarters," he wrote.
As a direct result of the new software releases, the analyst is projecting Apple's software segment to grow by approximately $115 million quarterly in the June quarter to $450 million, representing 45 percent yearly growth. The firm's September quarter should subsequently yield about 15 percent yearly growth to $360 million, he added.
For Apple's current March quarter, Bachman is forecasting earnings of $0.56 compared to Street consensus estimates of $0.61. For the June quarter, he's modeling earnings of about $0.75 compared to the the Street's $0.68.
"Our guess is that we are more bullish on the June quarter due to our expectations on Leopard," he told clients, noting that uncertainties regarding Leopard's release date make precise predictions more of a challenge. "Trying to disaggregate the impact of any one item from Street estimates is difficult at best."
The analyst maintained a Buy rating on shares of Apple with a 12-month price target of $107.
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1, 6 day old macbook here
I'm holding off buying a Mac, waiting for Leopard, and so are several software developers I work with. The software guys work with MS stuff all day. They want to buy Macs for themselves.
Mac installed base... Ping.
Ordered a new one today, the 3.0Ghz.
Stick with the iTunes pricing model & make it $99.99!
Is Leopard going to be Intel based only, or will it do G4/G5? I'd like to upgrade to a new model, but the old one's cruising along, and I might just do an OS upgrade for another year or so, if it's an option.
Universal Binary so both Intel and G4/G5.
Leopard is both PowerPC and Intel.
My sister has an imac with tiger. Will she be able to upgrade?
Yes. Either iMac G4/G5 or an Intel iMac will be supported.
I'm shopping around for my first Mac, probably a "pre-owned" dual 1GHz G4. I plan to use it as a digital recording studio.
You could probably get that much power in a Mac Book, Mac Mini, or an IMac. If you already have a monitor, keyboard and mouse, the Mini can get data to an external firewire drive at a good speed. The difference in the two models is really the burner, the higher priced one can burn DVDs. I've lived through all their architecture changes, and my small tip would be to go with an Intel Mac.
I'd second that.
Actually, I bought a MacBook Pro tonight. Don't need it, though.
Went to Best Buy and found one (open box) for $999.99. I assume it was mis-priced somehow, or something. I immediately put it up on Craigslist. Already sale pending.
Now, I'm trying to decide if I want to use the cash to buy either an LCD TV (I was actually at Best Buy shopping for an LCD TV in the first place), an X-Box 360, or a MacBook (I already have a desktop replacement class PC, but I'm looking for a new portable to replace my aging G3 iBook and - yes, Powerbook 1400).
Though, I wonder what they include in those numbers.
I've got an SE/30 which I fire up sometimes, running System 6-something. Does that count?
And I've got a Powerbook 1400cs, which I've got sitting on my kitchern table, too.
I've also got a box of parts which, put together, probably adds up to a Lombard.
Make that 2,000,0001 :)
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