vs. 
Florida vs Ohio State (-7)
Posted on 01/03/2007 3:06:17 PM PST by MikefromOhio
vs.
Florida vs Ohio State (-7)
The BCS National Title game is being played in Glendale, Arizona and features the BCS #1 team and Big Ten conference champion Ohio State Buckeyes vs. the BCS #2 and SEC Conference champion Florida Gators.
Being that this is the National Title game as we know it, I’ll break it down by groups. Feel free to disagree if you like, but I’ll do my level best to keep it even here.
This is one of 3 critical match-ups in the game. The Ohio State offensive line is probably one of the best at the school in a decade. The Florida defensive line is renowned for stopping the run, but sometimes struggles to generate a pass rush. This is key as Troy Smith has proven that if, given time to throw, he will be able to connect. The key here is can Florida get a pass rush up the field and whether or not Ohio State can run the ball.
Advantage: Even
Not quite as key as the previous group. Ohio State can throw the ball on just about anyone and this will be the best passing game Florida has faced all year long. We will find out if Florida can cover 4 wide receivers as this is one of Ohio State’s base sets. On the flip side, while Michigan may be statistically the best rush defense, Florida has the better linebackers. Another key assignment for this back 7 of Florida is the containment of a running QB. Troy Smith has made it a point of emphasis that he is NOT a running Quarterback anymore, but I am of the opinion that he can and will make it a point to run at least 3 times in the first couple series of the game.
Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State
This part of the match up favors Ohio State by a rather large margin, especially in the kicking game. Ohio State has one of the most dangerous return games in the nation, with Ted Ginn returning both punts and kicks. Florida’s FG kicking has been atrocious all year long. If this can even out, the game will be much closer. If one side or the other can turn this part of the game into an advantage, then so much the better for their team.
Advantage: Ohio State
This is another part of the game that should favor Ohio State, but not by very much. If Ohio State is able to generate a pass rush on Chris Leak, this will force him to make throws under pressure, something he sometimes has issue with. Another thing that is key in this game, Ohio State must get off the blocks of the Florida offensive line to be effective in the run game. If the Florida offensive line is able to contain the Ohio State defensive line, then the Ohio State linebackers will need to come up and make plays, opening them up to reverses, end-arounds and the pass.
Advantage: Ohio State by a slim margin
Ohio State’s defense has forced some key turnovers all year long. Florida is one of the few teams in college football that matches up well in terms of personnel. I think Florida has enough talent and speed to keep this one interesting. It comes down to what I’ve described above, the Ohio State defensive line and if Chris Leak can make the throws to his players so they can make plays. If Chris Leak gets time, Florida should be just fine here.
Advantage: Florida
Troy Smith won the Heisman Trophy. Chris Leak led his team through arguably the toughest conference in the nation this year. Both are good QBs in their own right, but Troy Smith has the offense built around his skills while Chris Leak is a bit of a square peg in a round hole for the Urban Meyer offense. The Florida offense is geared more towards Tim Tebow, who is the wild card here, than someone of Chris Leak’s skill set. Leak might be more accurate on the hole, but Troy Smith has more depth to throw too. If Troy Smith is able to take over this game, it might be a long night for Florida.
Advantage: Ohio State
Some will say that Urban Meyer is playing with Ron Zook’s players, but given the nature of college football, that isn’t a fair analysis. Zook wasn’t able to win the SEC with these players, but Meyer did it in year 2. That should speak volumes. Oddly enough, Jim Tressel won a national title in his 2nd year at Ohio State with John Cooper’s players. Jim Tressel is 2nd only to Pete Carroll when it comes to big games. This will be a big test for Urban Meyer who is no stranger to the BCS himself (UTAH). There is a slight advantage here for Ohio State, being that it’s in Arizona (they’ve won 3 of the last 4 Fiesta Bowls, the other being the year Utah smoked Pitt), they expected to be here as early as last year. Meyer gets to play the “everyone is against us” card.
Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State
They don’t (or at least shouldn’t) take the field, but the crowd can be a factor in the game. In the 2002 Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State got their fans to pack that stadium, while Miami fans were pretty scarce except in a few sections. One thing I have an issue with, Ohio State fans had a full 2 weeks to get tickets before Florida had even qualified for the BCS National Title game. Expect a majority Ohio State crowd, but Florida will represent better than Miami did in 2002.
This could be a very good game. Or then again it might be a very lopsided game. I personally think that it will be close. Florida has played in hostile environs all year long in the SEC and no other conference can fully duplicate that. To win this game, Florida will need to score at least 30 points while holding down the Ohio State offense. For Ohio State, it’s about establishing their rhythm again and being the juggernaut that averaged 40 points a game their final 5 games of the year. Another thing Florida has, if you believe in streaks, is that Ohio State is 0-7 all-time against the SEC in bowl games and Troy Smith won the Heisman. Most Heisman Winning Quarterbacks have bad bowl games after getting the trophy.
For the fun of it, I have simulated this game on my PS2 using NCAA 2007 made by EA Sports. I’ve played both sides and I’ve let the computer play it as well. Kind of fun to speculate about, but each time the team that won the turnover battle won the game. Ohio State won it two times and Florida won it once. In real life, the turnover battle is important to the outcome as well. IF Chris Leak is able to avoid the bad throws, Florida has a real shot. If he throws a pick or two, Florida is in deep trouble.
My prediction: Ohio State 34 – Florida 27
I don't think Ohio State should be ranked any lower than #2.
My son corrected me and then I saw a graphic after the game. It is that "OSU has not beat a SEC team in a bowl game", not that they have never beat a SEC team.
Yeah -- I really wasn't too surprised either about the UCLA game. USC has a way of winning the big ones and letting the "easy" ones slip by.
"You did here Pete Carrol was spotted with the Miami Dolphin's owner today?" NO!!!!!!! He wouldn't do that! Say it ain't so!
I don't either, but not sure how much is blind allegiance, as compared to stat savvy knowledge!
Congrats to the Gators. They played inspired and exciting football & deserve all the honor & joy that comes with unseating the favored sweethearts of Ohio.
We still love our guys from Ohio, Coach T, Ted Ginn & Troy Smith (our Glenville boys who many of us started following in high school here in Cleveland area) and all of the other fine men who gave us a wonderful season with a lot to cheer about
It is obvious the better team won last night and it was a very somber Winking Lizard after Ted's initial blast, that many of us thought would be typical of the entire evening. Instead it seemed like a time warp & we were again cheering for & watching the Browns!!!!
I look with anticipation for the careers of two fine quarterbacks. May they stay healthy & have a great career. They are both fine men of integrity & intelligence as well as skilled athletes.
Wish I had a lap top w/satellite.. would have been interesting to follow the live thread while at the game. There were enough LONG commercials to FReep a lot (and as cute as the fighting robots/transformers-whatever they were- were the FIRST time, seeing it every couples minutes got old quickly)
First of all, congrats on the win. Great game.
Second, thanks for proving that the SEC is indeed the class conference of college football. It's not even close.
Third, I'm glad you guys could benefit from the Auburn debacle in 2004 and have the pollsters take a look at an SEC team when "all else is equal". You guys proved the theory we Auburn folks had in 2004 that we could have easily competed against eith OU or USC and likely beaten either one (after all, Auburn in 2004 was 1 of only 3 teams to ever go undefeated in the SEC since the expansion to 12 teams in 1990).
Fourth, I am looking forward to next year when the SEC's top 6 teams are loaded with talent and great coaches (Meyer - UF, Tuberville, Auburn, Richt - UGA, Fulmer - UT, Miles - LSU, Saban - Alabama and that doesn't even take into consideration Spurrier at USC and Nutt at Arky). I just hope we don't all kill each other...:-)
WIN LOSS PF PA BIG EAST 5 0 30 17.8 SEC 6 3 28.6 21.4 ACC 4 4 25.8 24.9 PAC-10 3 3 29.2 31.5 BIG-12 3 5 27.3 34.6 BIG-10 2 5 20.1 27.3 Pac-10 8 38 Big East 24 7 24 41 37 10 27 44 38 35 45 10 24 13 39 38 27 24 32 18 150 89 175 189 30 17.8 29.2 31.5 ACC 44 27 BIG-10 41 44 20 28 7 24 24 7 24 26 25 24 20 10 24 31 17 14 21 20 18 32 35 38 14 41 13 24 141 191 206 199 20.1 27.3 25.8 24.9 Big-12 34 31 SEC 31 34 10 45 28 20 10 37 44 36 38 39 31 24 44 41 10 20 26 24 17 14 14 17 14 17 42 43 41 14 218 277 41 14 27.3 34.6 257 193 28.6 21.4
Wayne Huizenga (dolphin's owner) met with Pete Carroll Sunday in Costa Rica (where Carroll was vacationing) to interview him for the Dolphin's HC position.
It's all over the news....out of the country too!
"rogue nephew who is a UM fan"
Hopefully he learned the error of his ways during the Rose Bowl
I hope USC offers him a BIG FAT raise!
The grass may well be 2 feet tall when the Trojans visit Southbend but Brady Quinn will be playing on Sundays by then...
Well, I think Quinn is a tad overrated anyway. Of course, the ones that struggle in college tend to do well in the NFL. Rodney Pete cleaned Aikman's clock over and over, yet Aikman is the one with the Superbowl rings.
He may be a tad overrated, but he was in tall grass with the USC secondary in 2005 - He even ran out onto the field near the end of the game thinking he had won!!
I'm not sure if the SEC is always the best but we will ALWAYS be underrated.
It will be very tough for an SEC team to not take a loss or two next year. That's why I think best record is meaningless.
--I'm not sure if the SEC is always the best but we will ALWAYS be underrated.--
I think most experts agree that the SEC is the strongest conference. They just have to 'degrade' so they can make exciting matchups like OSU-MI, ND-Whoever and also get those big $$ schools into the bowl games.
heh heh!
--Yep, we got owned by Florida, all right! I guess there's always next year! :O)--
There is always basketball ... oops!
LOL!
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