vs. 
Florida vs Ohio State (-7)
Posted on 01/03/2007 3:06:17 PM PST by MikefromOhio
vs.
Florida vs Ohio State (-7)
The BCS National Title game is being played in Glendale, Arizona and features the BCS #1 team and Big Ten conference champion Ohio State Buckeyes vs. the BCS #2 and SEC Conference champion Florida Gators.
Being that this is the National Title game as we know it, I’ll break it down by groups. Feel free to disagree if you like, but I’ll do my level best to keep it even here.
This is one of 3 critical match-ups in the game. The Ohio State offensive line is probably one of the best at the school in a decade. The Florida defensive line is renowned for stopping the run, but sometimes struggles to generate a pass rush. This is key as Troy Smith has proven that if, given time to throw, he will be able to connect. The key here is can Florida get a pass rush up the field and whether or not Ohio State can run the ball.
Advantage: Even
Not quite as key as the previous group. Ohio State can throw the ball on just about anyone and this will be the best passing game Florida has faced all year long. We will find out if Florida can cover 4 wide receivers as this is one of Ohio State’s base sets. On the flip side, while Michigan may be statistically the best rush defense, Florida has the better linebackers. Another key assignment for this back 7 of Florida is the containment of a running QB. Troy Smith has made it a point of emphasis that he is NOT a running Quarterback anymore, but I am of the opinion that he can and will make it a point to run at least 3 times in the first couple series of the game.
Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State
This part of the match up favors Ohio State by a rather large margin, especially in the kicking game. Ohio State has one of the most dangerous return games in the nation, with Ted Ginn returning both punts and kicks. Florida’s FG kicking has been atrocious all year long. If this can even out, the game will be much closer. If one side or the other can turn this part of the game into an advantage, then so much the better for their team.
Advantage: Ohio State
This is another part of the game that should favor Ohio State, but not by very much. If Ohio State is able to generate a pass rush on Chris Leak, this will force him to make throws under pressure, something he sometimes has issue with. Another thing that is key in this game, Ohio State must get off the blocks of the Florida offensive line to be effective in the run game. If the Florida offensive line is able to contain the Ohio State defensive line, then the Ohio State linebackers will need to come up and make plays, opening them up to reverses, end-arounds and the pass.
Advantage: Ohio State by a slim margin
Ohio State’s defense has forced some key turnovers all year long. Florida is one of the few teams in college football that matches up well in terms of personnel. I think Florida has enough talent and speed to keep this one interesting. It comes down to what I’ve described above, the Ohio State defensive line and if Chris Leak can make the throws to his players so they can make plays. If Chris Leak gets time, Florida should be just fine here.
Advantage: Florida
Troy Smith won the Heisman Trophy. Chris Leak led his team through arguably the toughest conference in the nation this year. Both are good QBs in their own right, but Troy Smith has the offense built around his skills while Chris Leak is a bit of a square peg in a round hole for the Urban Meyer offense. The Florida offense is geared more towards Tim Tebow, who is the wild card here, than someone of Chris Leak’s skill set. Leak might be more accurate on the hole, but Troy Smith has more depth to throw too. If Troy Smith is able to take over this game, it might be a long night for Florida.
Advantage: Ohio State
Some will say that Urban Meyer is playing with Ron Zook’s players, but given the nature of college football, that isn’t a fair analysis. Zook wasn’t able to win the SEC with these players, but Meyer did it in year 2. That should speak volumes. Oddly enough, Jim Tressel won a national title in his 2nd year at Ohio State with John Cooper’s players. Jim Tressel is 2nd only to Pete Carroll when it comes to big games. This will be a big test for Urban Meyer who is no stranger to the BCS himself (UTAH). There is a slight advantage here for Ohio State, being that it’s in Arizona (they’ve won 3 of the last 4 Fiesta Bowls, the other being the year Utah smoked Pitt), they expected to be here as early as last year. Meyer gets to play the “everyone is against us” card.
Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State
They don’t (or at least shouldn’t) take the field, but the crowd can be a factor in the game. In the 2002 Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State got their fans to pack that stadium, while Miami fans were pretty scarce except in a few sections. One thing I have an issue with, Ohio State fans had a full 2 weeks to get tickets before Florida had even qualified for the BCS National Title game. Expect a majority Ohio State crowd, but Florida will represent better than Miami did in 2002.
This could be a very good game. Or then again it might be a very lopsided game. I personally think that it will be close. Florida has played in hostile environs all year long in the SEC and no other conference can fully duplicate that. To win this game, Florida will need to score at least 30 points while holding down the Ohio State offense. For Ohio State, it’s about establishing their rhythm again and being the juggernaut that averaged 40 points a game their final 5 games of the year. Another thing Florida has, if you believe in streaks, is that Ohio State is 0-7 all-time against the SEC in bowl games and Troy Smith won the Heisman. Most Heisman Winning Quarterbacks have bad bowl games after getting the trophy.
For the fun of it, I have simulated this game on my PS2 using NCAA 2007 made by EA Sports. I’ve played both sides and I’ve let the computer play it as well. Kind of fun to speculate about, but each time the team that won the turnover battle won the game. Ohio State won it two times and Florida won it once. In real life, the turnover battle is important to the outcome as well. IF Chris Leak is able to avoid the bad throws, Florida has a real shot. If he throws a pick or two, Florida is in deep trouble.
My prediction: Ohio State 34 – Florida 27
Your description of Zook sounds very much like Tom Crean, the basketball coach at Marquette, except Crean still makes the mistake of leaving his players out to dry with the media, after he was successful in getting them to commit to playing for him.
From watching Zook's team this year he appears to me to have learned a great deal from his experience at Florida. Illinois could very well end up being a one year wonder team in the next 5 years.
;)
You did here Pete Carrol was spotted with the Miami Dolphin's owner today?
Oh, that's right, Tenn - we both lamented over Farese on the Mary Winkler case. Well, you have my old NFL team up here (kinda kidding, only LUV'ed the Oilers in the very old days when there was hope for them - not a pro fb fan any more).
Thank you for your AF service! Congrats to the SEC team!
Lou Holtz is a pretty sharp guy. The other night he said something about a college coach being able to field as many #1 draft choices as he could recruit, but in the pros you only average about 1 per year.
I like to see people learn from their mistakes and earn respect, Lou seems pretty happy with where he's at and I hope for the sake of college football that Pete stays where he's at.
Thanks for the thread, Mike. Some of your initial predictions were spot on. Differences, IMHO - Leak had a GREAT game and the Florida defense played like any other great SEC defense. I was initially scared after the first 15 seconds, but after Leak scored in response, I knew the Florida offense would fight hard.
Thanks also for a great season of college football threads, pings, and news.
Wonder how much time Troy Smith spent in Coach Tressel's house, watching film together, like the coach named after a Pope did with Leak?
Congratulations from a Canes fan, who seldom roots for the Gators, but did last night. Alot of us did, wanting a bit of payback, and boy did your guys deliver!
Tressel was humiliated last night, as was the entire OSU squad. It was sweet! Football played Southern style..
The Gators deserved it tonight. Like Mom and I say, "In college football, any team can win on any given day." It's the nature of the beast of college football, and why I love watching it so much, even if the team I'm rooting for doesn't seem prepared. I guess it also helps that I was raised a Gator, and have cheered on the Gators every season. As I have mentioned earlier, this game was win/win for me.
What a nice young man! Congrats to my Gator brethren! (and cyn- Gator bait? Indeed!) ;-)
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/rankingsindex
Voting.....
AP
1.Florida
2.Ohio St
3.LSU
4.USC
5.Boise St
Coaches
1.Florida
2.Ohio St
3.LSU
4.USC
5.Wisconsin
Seeing as how OSU only scored 17 against the Illini, I think Zook knew some things about Troy and probably talked with Urban a few times about how to play against him.
Your mom is a very smart lady, Ohioan. The same can be said for anything from grade school basketball, to pro football, and every sport in between.
This is a sad night (morning) for me, but I'm trying very hard to take a page from Coach T's book, and be as gracious in losing as in winning. Darn it's difficult, but that's the way it should be.
So again, congrats 'Gators on your NC. You deserved it.
Winding down down, and going to tuck myself into bed, a little bit (actually alot) sadder, but knowing it's just a game, and that there are more important things in this life.
The only bad thing about tonight, is that now every year, the Gator Nation is going to have to sweat it out, as numerous NFL teams try to court Urban Meyer. Florida will pay to keep him happy, but it's a question of does he want to go the NFL.
I'm still proud of our Buckeyes, too! I didn't read the comments after halftime, so I could get caught up on packing, but I thought Troy showed real class when he congratulated Chris Leak after the game. He has grown into a fine young man!
OFF
Goodnight, Lisa! Yes, there are more important things, and right now, SLEEP is one of them!! ;-)
Goodnight. Troy will get over it. He's a good guy and I wish him all the best. Ohio State will be back.
1. Ohio State wasn't as good as their record would indicate, especially in light of the fact that the best team on their schedule (Michigan) lost by a wide margin in their bowl game.
2. In college football today, it's difficult to realy know how good a team is unless it plays in a conference championship game after the regular season ends. The long layoff for Ohio State couldn't have helped, either.
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