The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia 2006 Update
Posted on 09/01/2006 6:36:27 PM PDT by Jeff Head
I have been keeping a major web site up regarding the growth of the Chinese NAvy for the last four years. This is the 2006 Update.
Throughout 2005 and 2006 the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has continued its unprecedented modernization and buildup, working on and procuring twelve seperate classes of major combatants. Increasing numbers of new guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, fast attack craft, very modern and quiet diesel/electric attack submarines, nuclear attack submarines, nuclear ballistic missile submarines, logisitic support craft, amphibious assault craft, and the infrastructure and aircraft to support them are being built. The PLAN has now settled on several classes of vessels to be built in serial production after several years of testing and evaluation of initial production runs of two each of those vessels.
By way of comparison, since 2000, the Chinese Navy has added an additional 72 new, major combatants...a net growth of 72 major combatants. In that same time the US Navy has built 39 major new combatants, but also decommissioned 45 major combatants, most of them with ten or more years service life remaining in them according to their original construction plans, for a net of -8 major combatants.
Now, while the overall numbers, technology, and strategies are still signifcantly in favor of the US Navy, the trend is disconcerting because future construction plans call for projecting similar trends.
We must, IMHO, adopt very soon, an attitude and policy towards the government of the PRC that is similar to what Reagan did to the Soviets in the 80s. We can still avoid the worst, IMHO, if we do so soon. If we do not, then there is is a growing potential for an hellacious war at some point, far worse than World War II in my opinion.
Thanks for the heads up, this certainly bears watching closely.
The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia ping.
You, as well as anyone on this forum, may know if our technological advantage can keep us ahead of the curve. Our lives may depend on it; toe to toe is out of the question.
May God's wisdom be upon our leaders.
Thanks for the update.
Very well stated.
Picture 1937 through half of 1939 and in American stores shelves were overflowing with a multiplicity of goods labeled "Made in Germany" & Made in Japan" (In relation to "Made in [Red] China".
In relation to the late 1930's I am not precisely sure where we are in comparison in 2006, however but the hour is very late. The next major international explosion will either be Iran and or Syria, with their cohorts in the extended Axis of Evil making the problem worse. Then there's Putin, one of the principal heavy arms dealers to the Axis, waiting in the wings like a vulture while the anti-Western proxies continue their wars wars of terror against US and Israel.
It could be an rather expensive heating oil season coming up.
You're welcome.
Somthing along the lines of the Spanish civil war IMHO.
Excellent analogy! That's precisely the era.
Iran's deadline has passed. With each passing day the Iranian Islamic brutes mock and laugh at the inability of a united Western front.
The question is will Washington allow further appeasement & UN foot-draging relating to a swift, enforceable, long over due reciprocity for Tehran's belligerency on the jihadist enemy's drive for offensive nuclear weapons (not to mention Iran's biological weaponry arsenal)?
Previously we went down an elongated "diplomatic" dead end with Saddam, until President Bush had had enough and correctly acted, regardless of France, Russia and other nations refusing to enforce the countless UN referendum's the Iraqi régime repeatedly & brazenly violated, all due to very lucrative interlinked Iraqi oil deals (most of which were paid to the Saddam clan in Euros - not US $$$.
It's time to react to the Iranian Islamic terrorist and economic threats, not repeat the insanity of the UN's Iraqi joke.
We should never have entertained such an organization, and should even now cease our membership in it, all funding for it, and eject its headquarters from our shores. It is an abject and misbegotten drain on each and every American taxpayer and the gains it receives from us are put to ill use against our very interests.
It's time we had American statesmen who will go beyond the much needed slap in the face that President Bush gave them over Iraq, and give them a swift boot in the back side out of our pocket books and off of our soveriegn soil.
(/rant)
Ed Dames said China will become the dominant superpower fairly soon by purely economic means and won't have to fire a shot.
We may not be able to avoid conflict with them to some degree at this point...but it will be much, much worse if we wait. In any case, even if they do continue their economic rise without abate, that will lead to confrontation as they expand their sphere of influence and seek to ensure and vouchsafe their sea lane access to resources.
At some point something will go wrong with their economic miracle; odds are heavy in that direction. That is when the danger of military adventurism would be greatest. So long as things go their way economically they will ride the wave--they have the political maturity to stick with the program.
At some point something will go wrong with their economic miracle; odds are heavy in that direction. That is when the danger of military adventurism would be greatest. So long as things go their way economically they will ride the wave--they have the political maturity to stick with the program.I believe that they do have the maturity, and that maturity has produced the current circumstance through their own planning and skillfully manipulation to encourage over decades and ultimately create the wave they are riding.
While it is certainly true that the wave can and may well crest before they want it to...I believe we should take an active roll in helping it do just that, as Reagan took an active roll in bringing down the Soviets. I do not believe we dare allow them to ride that thing right into shore.
It's just my thoughts on the matter, but I believe the PRC, with its current government and fascist-like economic models is a long-term greater threat to world peace and prrosperity than the Soviets or the tyrannies of last centruty.
They are fascist and were even while they were also somewhat communist. There has been a lot of discussion of fascism lately on FR thanks to the Presidential mention of islamic fascism, most off the discussion off the point and on peripheral issues, but China is an actual example of real-world fascism in action.
The Nazis of the 1930s and 1940s, a relatively small nation in size anbd numbers of people...but very industrious, got that mindset and it took the entire free world and Russia combined to put that genie back in the bottle. Red China is large in land area and large in population, already has nuclear weapons, and poses a threat to world peace an order of magnitude greater (IMHO) than the Nazis did.
As Napolean (I believe) is rumored to have said...
"When China awakens, the world will tremble."
Well, they're now awake.
They continue to build very modern, new combatants at a break neck speed. By comparison, since 2000 they have added 72 new major combatants to their fleet. We have added 39, but also decomissioned 45, about 30 of which had ten or more good years of service life left in them.
Anyhow, I would be interested in your thoughts.
It kind of depends on what "decommissioning" actually means. I think we've "recommissioned" a few of the Ohios to be SSCNs. It also depends on how quickly they can be refurbished. My view from WW II is, if it can be made to work at all, the U.S., if enraged, could put to sea 2,000 combat ships in six months.
They have that no doubt about it and in spades.
Same with the USS Belleau Wood, LHA-3, recently decommisioned , large Amphibious Assault ship with maybe 20 years service left in her. We sank her on July 13, this year.
Those four being decommissioned and then recommmissioned net out.
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