Video games a key battlefield in DVD war

Reuters ^ | Fri May 5, 2006 8:51pm ET14 | Sue Zeidler

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LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - A major video game conference next week could prove pivotal for a multibillion dollar war over high-definition DVD standards brewing in Hollywood.

While most gamers are heading into the Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) hoping to view the latest and greatest in video games and consoles, a key subplot will be Sony Corp.'s plan to use the PlayStation 3, the newest version of its market-leading video game console due late this year, to get its Blu-ray high-definition DVD standard into homes.

By offering DVDs with far more capacity than current standard DVDs, studios hope to breathe new life into the $24 billion home video market. But their failure to use a unified format has paved the way for a costly battle similar to the VHS/Betamax war that caused widespread customer confusion in the late 1970s through mid-1980s.

There are two rival next-generation DVD standards, including Sony's Blu-ray and HD DVD, championed by Toshiba Corp..

While Blu-ray has drawn more support among Hollywood and electronics firms, HD DVD has garnered an ally in software giant Microsoft Corp., which plans to offer an external HD DVD drive for its Xbox 360 game console that will turn it into a high-definition DVD player.

The Xbox 360 hit stores late last year, and is the first of the next generation of game consoles offering high-resolution graphics and more realistic play.

DFC Intelligence, a market research firm based in San Diego, California, forecasts that the worldwide video game market will grow to around $42 billion in 2010 from $28.5 billion in 2005.

"The next move in the Blu-ray/HD DVD competition will be in the game industry. What Sony and Microsoft decide to announce publicly or to dealers at E3 next week will be key," said Richard Doherty, an analyst with research firm Envisioneering.

Microsoft has not given a shipping date or pricing for its HD DVD add-on disc drive, while Sony has not yet announced pricing for the PS3, which is due in November.

A widely expected price of $499 for would make the PS3 competitive with or cheaper than most stand-alone HD DVD or Blu-ray players. Toshiba has released an HD DVD player priced at $499.

"If Sony says it will sell the PS3 for $499, then people may wait until November to buy a PS3. If it doesn't give a price, then it might help in the sale of HD DVD players" in the mean time, said Doherty.

The high-end Xbox 360 package currently costs about $399 without a next-generation DVD player.

HD DVD titles have been trickling into stores since mid-April along with the first HD DVD players, while the arrival of the first Blu-ray format titles and hardware are now expected in June.

Video game analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities sees the DVD standards war determining the winner in the current video game console battle instead of the other way around.

Sony's decision to allow Microsoft to grab first-mover advantage with its Xbox 360 launch in November was "almost certainly" the result of Sony's desire to dominate the high-definition DVD market, Pachter said in a recent report.

Based on his assessment that Sony will win the high-definition DVD war, Pachter predicted that the PS3 would again be the dominant console at the end of this console cycle, although he predicted Microsoft would capture about 42 percent of U.S. and European combined next-generation hardware sales through 2007.

Microsoft's much-anticipated Vista operating system, to be available in early 2007, is also slated to support HD DVD, which will boost the installed base of HD DVD technology in PCs.

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Posted earlier:

E3 2006 Preview: The showdown between consoles and PCs

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fyi

[Terpfen]

The console market will only give a boost to Blu-Ray, via the PS3. The 360's HD-DVD add-on will go nowhere.

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And there is this:

Video game industry gears up for annual show
New generation of consoles get serious about online services

**************************AN EXCERPT **********************************

By Matt Slagle

Updated: 2:36 p.m. ET May 5, 2006

The new generation of video game consoles from Sony Corp., Nintendo Co. and Microsoft Corp. have more than zippy processors and flashy graphics in common: They’re also getting serious about online services.

Although earlier models also provide the necessary plugs to enter most online worlds, they’ve done little to capitalize on them.

That’s changing with the upcoming PlayStation 3 from Sony and the Wii from Nintendo, as well as the Xbox 360 released by Microsoft late last year.

[Sofa King]

Video game ping!

If you want on or off this list, Freepmail me

Not quite worth posting a thread about right now, but I think this supports my statements that Cell processor yeilds were the real force that kept the PS3 from being on time. Between this and the Blu-ray, the PS3 is going to be pretty costly to produce.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I think that processor is going to be a real powerhouse....

[Sofa King]

Everything I've read about it so far has indicated that it's performance is more theoretical than real, below what even a mid-range AMD PC processor can do.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I don't know how they measure,....got to get the parallel action going...will require some real programming.

[Sofa King]

This article is a good read.

[Terpfen]

As far as multi-threaded performance goes... IBM's compiler supposedly reconfigures single-threaded code into multi-threaded code. I don't know how well it works at this point, but it'd be quite the boon to development.

Regarding Cell yields... it's The Inquirer. Believing their non-sourced stories is like believing The Weekly World News.

[RadioAstronomer]

I still wish the PhysX PPU made it into this round of game consoles. Sigh!

I am currently running an Asus P5WD2-E Premium with an EVGA GeForce 7900GTX (512), an Intel 965 Presler, and an X-Fi Fatal1ty.

The PhysX cards are supposed to be out this month. Will add to my machine when they are avilable.

However, I do enjoy the consoles as well. :-)

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

This rational?

Here's an early look at a sample board

[ECM]

PhysX is out BUT, having run through GRAW on it, I'd strongly suggest waiting since it actually degrades overall performance and only adds more detailed exlposions (does nothing to the actual gameplay.)

[ECM]

I'm no fan of Sony, but I believe the Inq was referring to the move to 65nm away from 90nm (at which IBM has previously stated yields are good) which, naturally, is something Sony needs to do ASAP to avoid bleeding to death on hardware costs.

[RadioAstronomer]

Thats the one. There is also an AI CPU in the works:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_zdext/is_200509/ai_n15325223

[RadioAstronomer]

Ouch. Is the PhysX really that bad? Thought it would be cool to have my machine with:

CPU (965 Presler)
GPU (7900GTX)
PPU (PhysX)
AIP (AIS-1)
SPU (X-Fi)

I would have all but the AIS. - Too bad the PPU is not living up to the hype darn it.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

6-May-2006
AGEIA will be showing the following PhysX-accelerated game titles on the show floor( In Los Angeles ):

• Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter™
• City Of Villains™
• Bet On Soldier: Blood Sport™
• CellFactor: Combat Training™
• Alpha Prime™
• Monster Madness™
• Stoked Rider™
• Switchball™
• Taiser (CellFactor Mod)

[ECM]

Yes, the performance hits, in spots, is actually severe (I believe Anandtech has a story on it) and the system I demo'ed it on had a dual-core 4400/x1900xtx/2 gigs of fast RAM and it was pretty apparent that the technology and/or implementation isn't there yet.

Tha said, I think that if the company can last long enough, we'll get some amazing games, but we're a long way from a. games that requires the card (e.g. Cell Factor) and b. it being cost-effective for the end-user to purchase which will lead to more of 'a'...ye ol' chicken and egg, *sigh*.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

On Page 8 of the latest June 06 MaximumPC is a writup on the PhysX card...says a Demo was impressive...