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The Microsoft malaise ~ Eight signs that the software giant is dead in the water...Dvorak
MarketWatch ^ | May 3, 2006 : 1:19 PM ET | JOHN DVORAK'S SECOND OPINION

Posted on 05/03/2006 11:31:31 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

BERKELEY, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- For the past year or so, this is what I've been telling people in private. Now that there appears to be some sputtering by both the stock and by those who defend Microsoft I think it might be high time to explain my position.

Let me preface by saying that Microsoft (MSFT :
Microsoft Corporation
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) is not about to stop making gobs of money. It's just that there is virtually nothing interesting or exciting happening (with the lone exception of the X-Box360) with anything the company is doing.

To make matters worse none of the upcoming upgrades to the operating system or Microsoft Office appear to have any 'must-have" qualities needed to boost sales in a meaningful way.
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Compare what is going on at Microsoft to Apple (AAPL

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) . And now Apple is piling on with new TV commercials ridiculing all the viruses and security issues you buy when you buy a Windows-based PC. Microsoft advertising ironically highlights dinosaurs.

Let's just look at a casual status report of Microsoft's bed-ridden condition:

1. Vista OS. It's now so delayed that its consumer version will miss the 2006 Christmas season. It's now supposed to arrive in early 2007. Even when it does, all of its promised cool features have been removed and it appears to be little more than a gussied-up version of Windows XP. It appears as if it is going to be a great disappointment. This should have been the company's number one priority.

2. Office 2007. There is nothing in this new suite that is going to do much more than sustain the product as a dominant office suite. Unfortunately seven different versions are going to be released which will just confuse things. A new enterprise version has been added which appears to have a Lotus Notes-like element called Microsoft Groove. This is being sold as some sort of solution for online collaboration. If it is anything like Notes it will create a lot of anguish with users.

3. MSN. Microsoft should have abandoned MSN a decade ago. There is a lot of talk about Microsoft becoming more of a publisher and selling advertising. Microsoft should be buying advertising not selling it. This is not a media publishing company; it's a software publishing company. Why people keep encouraging Microsoft to go in this direction is baffling.

4. MSN Search Engine. Again more of the same and pointless. Selling ads

5. Xbox360. The potential to become the dominant game platform and an eventual and enviable profit center. Unfortunately the company did not foresee the Sony delays and failed to manufacture enough units to satisfy the demand. This was an exhibition of poor planning and bad business intelligence gathering.

6. Pad-based computing. According to Gates just a few years back this was to become the dominant form of computing by now. What happened?

7. Dot Net initiative. The .Net framework that many believe is an example of how Microsoft can actually put together elegant and powerful architectures when it wants to, is being killed by Open Source systems that are free and almost just as powerful. Microsoft has been unable to cope with Open Source except to complain about it.

8. Preoccupation with Google. Microsoft is too easily distracted by successful companies who are not competitors. There is a deep-rooted belief that if a company like Google is successful, then they are an enemy per se. So the company obsesses on what Google is doing rather than concentrating on important Microsoft projects. Now Microsoft is about to do a deal with Yahoo to flank Google. This old-lady-like skittishness is unbecoming for a company this size.

This only scratches the surface of the Microsoft malaise. Now if the investment community sees light at the end of this tunnel good for them. I sure don't see it. I see a company that has settled in and has become big, profitable, and unexciting, lacking real focus or spirit. End of Story

 


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Computers/Internet
KEYWORDS: convictedmonopoly; lowqualitycrap; microsoft

1 posted on 05/03/2006 11:31:36 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: rdb3; chance33_98; Calvinist_Dark_Lord; Bush2000; PenguinWry; GodGunsandGuts; CyberCowboy777; ...

2 posted on 05/03/2006 11:32:26 AM PDT by ShadowAce (Linux -- The Ultimate Windows Service Pack)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
3. MSN. Microsoft should have abandoned MSN a decade ago.

I told MSN's product manager in 1993 that it was stupid idea that would be eclipsed by the Internet and the WWW.

He was no fool, and it was pretty clear that he "got it," even as he advanced the party line (that was his job, after all). But Bill didn't.

Now MS is trying to suck new members into MSN by tying it to the otherwise excellent MS Money. Problem is, most users don't want anything to do with MSN -certainly they don't want private financial data stored on it - so they're rejecting MS Money as well (read the cnet or epinions reviews).

What a disastrous farrago MSN has been. MS apparently can't take a lesson from observing the demise of AOL.

3 posted on 05/03/2006 11:44:41 AM PDT by angkor
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I'll file this right alongside his prediction that the internet will crash from overload in 1998.


4 posted on 05/03/2006 11:47:39 AM PDT by js1138
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Apple has problems also...
5 posted on 05/03/2006 11:47:42 AM PDT by Echo Talon
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Microsoft just put a new program on my desktop yesterday. They said they had an update to their anti-spyware beta and I said fine. It turns out it is now named "Defender" and shows a fort icon. It also wants you to join something called "MS SpyNet" (I declined) to help it ferret out spyware quicker. The only problem so far is that it detects as spyware one of my specialty programs and I had to tell it to ignore it.


6 posted on 05/03/2006 11:48:35 AM PDT by CedarDave (Gen. McCaffrey: "There is a rapidly growing animosity" among U.S. troops in Iraq toward the press...)
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To: angkor

Another disaster for Microsoft was purchasing WebTV for $400 million, although I'm sure the inventor of the product isn't complaining.


7 posted on 05/03/2006 11:50:48 AM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist (FR's most controversial FReeper)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

> 2. Office 2007. There is nothing in this new suite ...

Does it even support the just-adopted ISO/IED 26300
XML Open Document Format?

Sure, it will support the closed MS XML format, but
the market is starting to realize the hazards of MS
formats, particularly over many years ... and MS
would love to maneuver everyone into a position where
if they don't have an on-going paid-up subscription-
based licence, a day will arrive when they can't even
open their own documents.


8 posted on 05/03/2006 11:52:02 AM PDT by Boundless (Democrats have fuel prices right where they want them.)
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To: CedarDave

Windows Defender is the second beta release of the program that in the first beta release was called Microsoft Antispyware (which was actually bought from a company called GIANT). So in that sense, it is an upgrade. It's still a beta - I have a recurring issue with a phantom definitions update download on one of my computers that seems to be fairly common - but at least on my systems it works completely silently and in the background. Never had it pick up anything real or false although I don't have many unique applications on my computers.


9 posted on 05/03/2006 11:53:43 AM PDT by Turbopilot (Nothing in the above post is or should be construed as legal research, analysis, or advice.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
The .Net framework that many believe is an example of how Microsoft can actually put together elegant and powerful architectures when it wants to

Although there are several things in .NET that rub me wrong (although a lot has been fixed in 2.0), I see it exactly that way. It's like a nice little environment wrapped in the kludge of Windows.

10 posted on 05/03/2006 11:56:09 AM PDT by antiRepublicrat
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To: Boundless
May want to check out this blog article. Some good points are made: if every open-source and non-MS commercial office product can already read MS formats, and they're more efficient than the XML, who needs open-source just for the sake of open-source?
11 posted on 05/03/2006 11:57:49 AM PDT by Turbopilot (Nothing in the above post is or should be construed as legal research, analysis, or advice.)
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To: Turbopilot

> ... if every open-source and non-MS commercial office
> product can already read MS formats, ...

Legend has it that Open Office can open some old MS .doc
files that current MS Word can't. But it's risky to
assume that the history of reverse-engineering MS
file formats will be the future of r.e. of MS files.
MS didn't put a binary header in their XML format to
make it easy for the other office suites to read it.
And if they'll sue people over the FAT fs ...

> ... and they're more efficient than the XML, ...

For most of what people create, .txt or .RTF suffices.
I want a document standard for full pre-press page
composition, and at this point in history, only XML
makes sense as the underlying markup language.

My DTP app today can create .xml, but it can't
interchange with it; heck, it can't even round-
trip it. Same is true for PDF, which otherwise
might have become a round-trip DTP standard.

If performance (or file size) is an issue, a binary
variant of ODF is sure to arrive, along with compilers
and uncompilers (for when you need to read the tags,
or to load in an app that doesn't support the .bxml).

> ... who needs open-source just for the sake of
> open-source?

I never said that. But open-source assures archival
interchange (worst case - you write your own reader),
and eliminates the expense (and any legal risk) of
reverse-engineering proprietary.


12 posted on 05/03/2006 12:33:10 PM PDT by Boundless (Democrats have fuel prices right where they want them.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

While Dvorak has become something of a joke for his offbeat and often-wrong predictions, he does raise a few good points here.


13 posted on 05/04/2006 6:49:10 AM PDT by steve-b (A desire not to butt into other people's business is eighty percent of all human wisdom)
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To: angkor
Problem is, most users don't want anything to do with MSN -certainly they don't want private financial data stored on it - so they're rejecting

I thought I was the only one.

MS Money 2002 is the same way.
I used my older version to run amortization tables, etc.
Money2002 requires me to go online, sign in to do simple tasks such as that.
I never use it.

Back to Money 97.

14 posted on 05/06/2006 4:58:56 AM PDT by Vinnie
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