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Linux vs. Windows Vista vs. Leopard
Technology News ^ | 1 May 2006 | Rob Enderle

Posted on 05/02/2006 5:49:36 AM PDT by ShadowAce

2008 will be a critical year for Apple, Microsoft, and the Linux contingent. If Apple can't significantly expand its presence by then in the PC market it is likely going to be finished with this segment. Its likely path in that case will be to focus more aggressively on the consumer electronics market it currently dominates.

I mentioned last week that I was planning to attend the Linspire-sponsored Linux Desktop Summit where the discussion would include reasons the folks who build PCs Smart Buys from CDW. The Technology You Need When You Need It. don't want to do Linux. Indeed, some of the commentary at the event related to Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and its vulnerability when it comes to large business and government accounts because:

There was also a lot of discussion about what Linux should become, with some of the most interesting commentary coming from Geoffrey Moore, author of "Crossing the Chasm," who was right on in stating that Linux is going in the wrong direction with respect to the desktop.

There was little mention of the Mac OS at the conference, yet, given the success of Linux against Unix (the Mac OS has Unix at its core) you would think that platform might make a better first target for Linux than Windows would.

Windows' Past Could Offer Lessons for Linux's Future

It was as fascinating to learn that Moore was an avid Linux supporter as it was to learn that he felt strongly it was on the wrong path for the desktop. He went into great detail as to how he felt that Microsoft was, like many of the large companies that hire him to consult, a dinosaur trying unsuccessfully to be fast moving and trendy again. He clearly felt that the company was vulnerable -- but not to Linux, considering what this system's desktop path seems to be.

Moore pointed out that things move slowly and that a good place to look for ideas for future products is among kids and young people -- and what they are currently using. Today kids are using devices like cell phones and iPods, often juggling several gadgets running at once. These devices are not all-in-ones, rather they're specialized to whatever the user wants to do. In short, they're nearly the opposite of what Windows currently is. What does that mean? It means Windows might be a poor model for future products. Future products probably won't be running on anything that looks like today's Windows.

All of this reminded me of the way in which Windows came about. Back in the 1980s, IBM's (NYSE: IBM) dominance was based on mainframes, and this firm was more powerful in its day than Microsoft is today. Companies like Fujitsu, Hitachi (NYSE: HIT) and Digital tried to make a better mainframe product than IBM. Digital even changed its name to "DEC" so it kind of looked like "IBM." Several firms actually attempted to steal IBM's proprietary technology so they could build competing products that they'd offer at lower prices.

Often people seem to think that just because they can sell something cheaper they have a major competitive advantage. For software, in particular, price is just one factor -- but it's often far from the most compelling.

As a result of focusing intently on price and IBM these folks fought over about 10 percent of the market. Some were successful in peripherals or emerging markets, but IBM actually remained dominant in mainframes.

In contrast, Microsoft, Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) grew, not by making a better mainframe, but by helping to create and ride the next wave, personal computers. This was a wave Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) started but couldn't ride itself. IBM couldn't move fast enough, often crippled its own products to protect existing revenue streams and recently exited the PC market after admitting it couldn't compete.

Seeing Clearly

Recall that Microsoft not only didn't initially target IBM as a competitor but partnered with it in order to gain faster entry into the market. In fact IBM still maintains one of the largest Microsoft services organizations in the world. While it may be hard to remember now, Microsoft at one time focused on the opportunity and the customer -- not Netscape, or Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), or internal politics. As a result, Microsoft benefited when IBM's geriatric behavior caught up with it.

For the Linux set, focusing on Microsoft and Windows might mean those players will mirror the experiences of IBM's traditional competitors like Digital and face a similar end. To win, they need to focus not on where the market was, but where it is going, and they should do everything in their power to get there first even if that means finding a way to partner with Microsoft.

Shortly after the show last week I saw this post on the Groklaw Web site which advocates a boycott of Linux distributions and the hardware vendors who use them when FOSS (Free and Open Source Software) rules are not followed to the letter. This smacks of religious elitism -- and boycotts scare the hell out of hardware vendors, IT buyers, and consumers alike. As a result I have to wonder if it is even possible for Linux proponents to stop the infighting long enough to even think about the future, let alone get there first.

Mac OS Leopard: Feature Complete Vista?

No one seems to talk much about Apple Leopard, the next version of the Mac OS. This is primarily because Apple, unlike Microsoft, is not talking about this next generation platform publicly. Based on comments by Apple chief Steve Jobs it was slated to roll out about the same time as Vista originally was, but if what I'm reading is right, it too has run into problems and won't show up until late 2007. This OS was largely modeled after what Vista was going to be. However, unlike Microsoft, Apple did not cut features to make the 2006 date, a date that Microsoft has now missed anyway. As result, Leopard may look a lot like what Vista was promised to be and, based on how Apple developed the iPod, it may also be capable of building a media center offering that works.

One of the interesting features expected to be included in Leopard is a true hardware virtualization layer, probably at least partially leveraging Intel's (Nasdaq: INTC) LG technology which should be nearly fully cooked by that time. Virtualization was supposed to be included in Windows Vista but it too slipped out of the product. As many have pointed out, virtualization could be a vastly more palatable way to gain Windows compatibility than Apple's Boot Camp now is.

One lesson that may come out of this is that removing a feature to make a deadline is a bad idea because there are dependencies that break -- and this breakage can dramatically reduce, if not eliminate, the time savings such a decision was expected to create. In addition, it makes the product look crippled -- and crippled products don't sell well. If the right people observe and learn this lesson it may result in better and timelier software products going forward from a lot of companies.

Despite all this, if this Leopard vs. Vista scenario plays out this will place the most competitive Mac OS in history -- on aggressively designed Intel based hardware -- against what may be the most competitively exposed Microsoft desktop OS since Windows Millennium Edition in the market, in the fourth quarter of 2007.

If Apple can't at least double its small share during this unique event it should abandon the Mac OS as a dead end, because this kind of opportunity will never come again.

If it does double share, which it could do by cutting a broad swath through the consumer market with a well designed media center-like product, it could dramatically change the market and remind the Linux folks that the desktop isn't about FOSS -- it's about selling the products consumers want to buy.

Looking Ahead: 2008

2008 will be a critical year for Apple, Microsoft, and the Linux contingent. If Apple can't significantly expand its presence by then in the PC market it is likely going to be finished with this segment. Its likely path in that case will be to focus more aggressively on the consumer electronics market it currently dominates.

If the Linux set can't get over its internal problems it will be bypassed, likely by something else that better blends proprietary and open source components into solutions that more accurately meet the emerging needs for appliance-like products real people want to buy. If Microsoft can't find a way to become agile and customer focused again it will clearly be on the long slow path that IBM blazed -- and that Sun is already reaching the end of.

There is potential for 2008 to be a year of change, both positive and negative, for Microsoft, Apple and Linux. This is history in the making for all three entities and we are getting a chance to witness it.

The outcome will have a great deal to do with the quality of the decisions all parties make this year. The first decision all should make is to focus unwaveringly on their customers -- if they can figure out who they really are. Of the three entities, the only one that appears to clearly understands this, so far, is Apple.


TOPICS: Computers/Internet
KEYWORDS: linux; mac; microsoft; operatingsystems; windows
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To: Golden Eagle

Someone's getting cranky!


141 posted on 05/03/2006 3:37:49 PM PDT by FLAMING DEATH
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To: FLAMING DEATH

Here's a short list of just the recent lies from you open source lunatics. Starting with the flaming dude from hell, who still refuses to admit his lies after months.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1609606/posts?page=302#302

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/1612495/posts?page=82#82

And of course, his lies are always in defense of communists and other leftists, since he refuses to ever address actual facts.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x665385

http://europa.eu.int/idabc/en/document/1736/531

http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1759,1617712,00.asp?kc=EWNKT0209KTX1K0100440

http://ianmurdock.com/?p=54

http://weblog.flora.org/article.php3?story_id=552

http://zgp.org/linux-elitists/p05210612bb7d87639a93@[192.168.1.101].html

http://www.linuxlinks.com/portal/news/article.php?story=20050624042207848&mode=print

http://www.linuxpipeline.com/42700029

http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/wlg/5279

http://www.linuxjournal.com/article/7239

http://asia.cnet.com/news/software/printfriendly.htm?AT=39146335-39001094t-39000001c

http://slashdot.org/articles/99/11/10/1457205.shtml

http://linux.slashdot.org/linux/05/05/19/1213245.shtml?tid=106&tid=219

http://slashdot.org/articles/03/10/30/1435248.shtml

http://www.iranian.ws/cgi-bin/iran_news/exec/view.cgi/2/3822

http://linuxtoday.com/news_story.php3?ltsn=2002-08-30-011-26-NW-LL-PB

http://slashdot.org/articles/03/05/01/1148227.shtml?tid=103&tid=99

http://www.zdnet.co.uk/print?TYPE=story&AT=2133230-39020381t-10000002c

http://www.pcworld.com/reviews/article/0,aid,104039,src,ov,00.asp

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/techpolicy/2003-10-20-open-source-mass_x.htm

http://www.newsforge.com/business/04/02/27/2329240.shtml


Here's a sample of the BS threads and comments these losers have come up with lately.


http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1607069/posts - Lies claiming Windows only has 40% market share and VMWare kernel is linux based

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1608956/posts - Lies that Windows systems need to be rebuilt after compromise but not linux ones

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1605189/posts - Lies that the Kapital program in linux has nothing to do with Karl Marx's "Das Kapital"

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1604720/posts - Lies that Osama Bin Laden doesn't get a free copy of linux if he wants, and that stallman isn't a central figure in the OSS community, and that I work for Microsoft

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1601565/posts - Lies that Beowulf clusters couldn't exist without free software, and that American citizens can't have access to free software unless the chinese, cubans, russians, iranians, etc do too

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1527747/posts - Lies that open source was designed to co-exist with proprietary software, that I don't support companies that use some open source in their proprietary operating systems like Apple and Sun, that stallman doesn't oppose patents, that Microsoft shared source has the same dangers as open source, and ridiculous claims that I'm the one that whines to the moderator around here

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1602047/posts - Lies that *nix can't get viruses spyware or trojans, that it's easier to setup and run linux than windows, etc

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1592292/posts - Follow up lies to the original threads that Dell is offereing linux on their desktop models when they aren't, that stallman's following is small, and of course the flamer denying he ever posts on the linux lie threads

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1592494/posts - Lies that IBM is not going to ever use Microsoft Vista but only linux

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1591595/posts - Lies that it's easy to deploy linux even though IBM can't do it themselves

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1590132/posts - Lies that most open source zealots don't approve of stallman, that our government should always use the lowest cost option even if it came from foreigners

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1591021/posts - Lies that a fully patched Windows box can be hacked by anyone in minutes

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1585665/posts - Lies that Dell is going to announce linux on home desktop computers, that I'm the one that always whines to the moderators, that the original article wasn't retracted by the author, that other articles don't indicate it's almost impossible to get a Dell desktop with linux, etc

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1584107/posts - Lies that open source doesn't equal open borders, that "copyleft" has nothing to do with politics, that open source is more capitalistic than proprietary software LOL, that n3wbi3 cared that 75% of all open source uses stallman's license, about how large linux's market share is, that the free software foundation didn't confiscate code from its users, that stallman isn't anti-capitalist and the leader of the open source movement, that Torvalds didn't do a 180 when confronted by Stallman on GPL3, etc

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1578925/posts - Lies by some foreign rag that linux is easier to manage than windows, that it's safe to go to hacker sites for your security updates, that microsoft.com doesn't almost always have longer uptime than linux companies, etc

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1573697/posts - Lies that Red Flag is based on Asianux and not Red Hat LOL, that no one in china is a communist at all which is amazing

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/1573397/posts - Lies that Teddy Kennedy's various sites run on Microsoft IIS and not linux (several whoppers), about linux's market share size, etc

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1571222/posts - Lies that n3wbi3's "open source" ping list was actually open source, that free software for russia is no more dangerous than free software for germany, that it's somehow worse to sell technology to adversaries than to just give it to them for free, etc

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1568785/posts - Lies that you have to upgrade Office for legal protection, that linux and other open source provides equal legal protection to proprietary software LMAO that was funny

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1568067/posts - Lies that good eyes verses bad eyes can ever be quantified,

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1568848/posts - Lie that Google is releasing a linux operating system, that Microsoft is hurting and not recording record profits, that quality of open source exceeds that of proprietary software, that Google Earth is compatible with linux, that I referred to the Cert vulnerability database as "linux" problems, that these guys don't live their lives by stallman's principles, etc


142 posted on 05/03/2006 3:40:33 PM PDT by Golden Eagle
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To: dennisw

I've never been a fan of Ubuntu myself. Try Mepis 6.

This week, we helped a guy on here install it on his laptop...he got everything working with Mepis right out of the box, including wireless.

And, if you want to install new software in Mepis, just click Start>System>Synaptic Package Manager. After entering your password, you can search for software and install it point-and-click.

IIRC, the nVidia drivers are included with Mepis too, so you just go to the Mepis OS center, click on Mouse and Display, click the "Nvidia" tab and make sure "Official Nvidia Driver" is checked (you might have to restart your computer afterward). But, chances are, Mepis will detect and configure your video automatically and you will have to do nothing. Regardless, it is a live CD, so you can try it out before you install.

Mepis is way easier than most distributions, in my opinion.

If you need help, ping me. I'll let N3WBi3 or somebody know and we'll get a Tech Help thread going.


143 posted on 05/03/2006 3:49:08 PM PDT by FLAMING DEATH
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To: dennisw
So I say Windows 95 was more consumer friendly than Linux 2006

You have given it every possible chance, as we both know. But the problem with Linux though is not just the software, it's these lunatics like FLAMING DEATH who are always goading you into wasting more time every year trying it.

You're just starting to figure out what I learned several years ago, that the "free" software movement is a bunch of ridiculous hype, pushed by kooks that will do anything to make software free. Sure some free utils are always good, but running your O/S on welfare is a big mistake.

144 posted on 05/03/2006 3:49:09 PM PDT by Golden Eagle
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To: Golden Eagle

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1609606/posts?page=302#302

How many times you gonna beat this dead horse? Not get spanked enough over this one yet?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/1612495/posts?page=82#82

Your post, not mine. But, you're right about it being a lie.

As for the rest, I don't care to visit sites such as DU, your second favorite hangout (Stallman.com is the first).


145 posted on 05/03/2006 3:53:07 PM PDT by FLAMING DEATH
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To: Golden Eagle; dennisw

Just ignore the resident fud-flinging troll. He's cranky today because he misread something.

If you want, you can freepmail me if you decide to try Mepis. I'll help you any way I can.


146 posted on 05/03/2006 3:55:11 PM PDT by FLAMING DEATH
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To: FLAMING DEATH

Keep linking whatever you want Flamer, because practically anyone outside your cult who follows any of your links will confirm what a raving madman you are. You've already once again proven it on this thread, but linking other instances of your insanity is always appreciated!


147 posted on 05/03/2006 3:55:51 PM PDT by Golden Eagle
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To: FLAMING DEATH

Look at this one, from your link. LMAO! And that's one of your better ones!

To: FLAMING DEATH

I got post 300.

300 posted on 04/06/2006 9:03:36 PM CDT by FLAMING DEATH


148 posted on 05/03/2006 3:59:01 PM PDT by Golden Eagle
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To: dennisw
I'll help you any way I can.

Beware flaming dudes bearing "gifts".

149 posted on 05/03/2006 4:10:15 PM PDT by Golden Eagle
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To: Golden Eagle

Yep, that was me, having a bit of fun, as human beings do.

Love ya, sweetie.


150 posted on 05/03/2006 5:16:12 PM PDT by FLAMING DEATH
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To: Golden Eagle

I've maintained for some while that you have a crush on me. Now, you're showing signs of jealousy...

Bless your pea-pickin' lil' heart.


151 posted on 05/03/2006 5:17:33 PM PDT by FLAMING DEATH
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To: ShadowAce

You sure this is satire? So they make fun of God too?

http://shelleytherepublican.com/

TheInquirer.net

Whilst this site is of concern to any decent minded webmaster; I am more worried by a British news-site called "The Inquirer"; Anybody who works in the computer industry will recognize this publication; It's distinctive red-top confirms it's association with Marxist traditions of journalism.

Since The Inquirer was founded; it's mission statement has always been to provide misleading left-wing propaganda with a view to causing harm to the American IT industry.

They never have a single nice thing to say about American products; and everything they publish is written with a disgusting Limey sneer. I suppose you could call them "Activist Journalists", but that would be too high-praise for this site; I am sure they make it all up as no manufacturer with any sense would be willing to talk to their operatives.

So now you know who are sending these illiterate, godless mobs to harass us. Our old enemies, the Marxists and the Democrats who in turn are being led by their traditional puppet-masters the British. These are the people who want you to stop reading Shelley's site.

But I have news for you crazy Europeans; This is America, land of free-speech – and no matter how many Linux hackers try to shut down our site, we intend to keep telling the truth no matter what it takes. As Christ is our example, this is what we promise!


152 posted on 05/03/2006 5:36:20 PM PDT by Golden Eagle
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To: ShadowAce

Now I am starting to get it. This is a liberal whackjob site, and they try to mock Republicans and Christians for their beliefs. No wonder you guys love it so much. It has a distinct intent to attrack international attention, and portray Republicans and Christians and basically all Americans in the worst possible light. Well, from their point of view that is. Being those that don't like the fact that most Republicans don't care for druggies, homosexuals, and all the other stuff they lampoon on there including foreign freeware like Linux.

http://shelleytherepublican.com/



153 posted on 05/03/2006 5:55:59 PM PDT by Golden Eagle
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To: FLAMING DEATH; Golden Eagle

I'm a glutton for punishment. Today I downloaded the mini-install of Mandriva 2006. Very quick installation. This is not a live CD. I can tell it got my screen resolution correct. Only problem is i can't log on. I'll look at Mephis6. Thanks

Here's another computer savvy guy frustrated by Linux --->

http://www.linuxforums.org/forum/linux-newbie/59661-incredibly-frustrated-noob.html?highlight=mandriva


154 posted on 05/03/2006 7:23:34 PM PDT by dennisw (http://www.immigrationshumancost.org/)
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To: dennisw

Take a look at that "shelleytherepublican" website and the forum comments on it before you try any more Linux.


155 posted on 05/03/2006 7:42:38 PM PDT by Golden Eagle
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To: Golden Eagle

Shelly is a comedian/clown. What relevance does he have?


156 posted on 05/03/2006 8:08:27 PM PDT by dennisw (http://www.immigrationshumancost.org/)
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To: dennisw

Read the comments, you'll see how anti-Americans from overseas love Linux. Which of course makes perfect sense, considering our current and long time dominance of the software industry.


157 posted on 05/03/2006 8:30:14 PM PDT by Golden Eagle
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To: Golden Eagle
The GPL does not require you to release your modified version. You are free to make modifications and use them privately, without ever releasing them.

Do you have to distribute the source code if you don't distribute the Linux OS itself? Nope, you don't. That's the truth, and that's exactly what I posted in the first post.

Both of those statements are factually true. Why do you call them lies?

As far as the rest, I've already destroyed several of your points, yet you continue to post this drivel. At least you stopped claiming China runs Red Flag on all of its supercomputers, I guess that's progress.

158 posted on 05/03/2006 8:43:54 PM PDT by antiRepublicrat
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To: Golden Eagle; dennisw
Sure some free utils are always good, but running your O/S on welfare is a big mistake.

One of these days you'll be brave enough to tell your opinions directly to the owner of this site.

159 posted on 05/03/2006 8:45:30 PM PDT by antiRepublicrat
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To: Golden Eagle
http://shelleytherepublican.com/

I would tell you your link's not working, but you wouldn't believe me, as usual.

160 posted on 05/03/2006 8:47:44 PM PDT by antiRepublicrat
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