Posted on 12/05/2005 5:24:54 AM PST by jmaroneps37
There is absolutely no chance that the Democrats can win back the congress in 2006. That’s what this essay is about. If you think otherwise, you’re fooling yourself.
It is time to stop even talking about a Democrat take over as a real possibilty because the energy and time involved would be much better used thinking about how to take more seats from the minority party.
Last Labor Day I posted an essay describing the insurmountable problems the Democrats will face next year and in 2008, as they set about trying to re-take power. This second essay will outline these problems and underscore what, if any progress the Democrats have made in dealing with these problems.
People know the difference
The people of this country recognize that the Democrats are a socialist party. This will not get them election victories in a nation that self identifies as conservative by 35% to 18% ratio over liberal. If this were the only problem faced by the Democrats it would be enough to keep them in their place as the minority party. Fortunately for us, their problems go way beyond this simple disparity.
The Iraq War will not be an issue
Things in Iraq are getting better by the month. The Democrats have adopted the wishful thinking position of: "The war has become increasingly unpopular with the public" They repeated this line over and over again Goebbels style, but they and the old media will NEVER make it true.
The sad truth is that for most Americans the war is neither popular nor unpopular. As an unintended consequence of the volunteer military, people now have about as much emotional connection to the Army as they have to the FBI. This is very evident in the small numbers of protesters that show up at moveon.org managed "spontaneous rallies".
A Thanksgiving weekend “protest” near the president’s Crawford Texas home brought out 200 anti Bush people and about 20 pro Bush people. On a holiday long weekend a genuine “groundswell” against the war should have brought out thousands of protesters willing to spend the weekend in jail to make their point. This “protest” should have been the focal point for thousands of “protests” around the nation and around the world. It wasn’t. Americans have no emotional ties to the military.
That’s actually the extent of the good news for the Democrats on this issue. The bad news here is that while people might not have an emotional or otherwise personal connection to our military this does not mean they wish the military ill as the Democrats want it to.
Consequently, if there was the slightest bit of truth to the lies the pollsters tell us about the level of discontent people feel about the war on terror, Americans would be doing cartwheels in anger in front of their local Democrat congressman's office after the 3 to 403 vote the shut the door on immediate pull out of Iraq. They would be demanding that the Democrats demand an immediate pull out of Iraq.
There were no reports of any demonstrations, not even in front of Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco office. People just don’t care one way or the other and this will not turn into an issue that moves voters to the polls next year or two years from now. The war did nothing to move voters last year when there was arguably more genuine bad news coming from Iraq. Now that there has been a string of huge electoral successes and no civil war as the lying old media said there would be, how will the Democrats excite enough people to go out and vote for them over this issue? The answer obviously is that they can’t. Carrying this issue will only remind people that Democrats should never ever be allowed to run this country.
The Big Labor split equals big trouble for the Democrats
The split in the AFL-CIO is a major blow to the Democrats. The refusal of the media to talk about it stands as more proof that the media are content to play “enabler” to the Democrats fantasies.
The problems this development presents to Democrats are very real.
Over the years the power of Big Labor has been on a steady decline because of many factors. Some were inescapable. Some were self manufactured.
The population growth of states in the south and southwest, where unions never did have much power, certainly was out of Big Labor’s hands. Nevertheless, the reaction to this decline by John Sweeney and his staff at the AFL-CIO has been nothing short of suicidal.
As things stand, unions can deliver no more than 60% of their member’s votes to Democrats. Even this weak number is now in danger.
Concerned that things were getting worse, last spring Al Stern of the Service Employees International Union ( SEIU ) repeatedly asked John Sweeney to make an effort to pull Big Labor back from its death ride with the Democrats. He pointed to the alarming drop of union membership in the nation’s workforce (now down to under 10% in the private sector) and asked the AFL-CIO to help with constructive steps. Stern was howling in the wind.
Sweeney’s response was an open letter pledging his union’s support for gay “marriage” an issue that was a proven wedge between him and his own rank and file members. Think about that. Stern begs Sweeney to pull back from the crazy liberal positions that are killing Big Labor and Sweeney’s response was to publicly back gay “marriage.”
Last summer Stern and others left the AFL-CIO and started their own coalition. It is now impossible for Stern to go back and support Democrats because that would leave him open to charges that he was always only after power for himself.
Stern and his troops know this well. They will not fall into such a trap. At worst Stern’s group will be a neutral for Republicans. At best, to show he is for real, Stern will start to support carefully selected Republicans in certain races. He already did that by supporting Mike Bloomberg’s re-election in New York City.
If Stern thinks Republicans will allow him to use them to beat Sweeney over the head and only give “just enough” to the GOP to make a point he is wrong. Anyway you look at it, the Democrats are big losers in this split.
The end of big labor as an ATM for Democrats means half the extorted union dues money and half the union thug troops. These things mean big troubles for the minority party.
Howard Dean: Raising questions not money
Howard Dean became the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee because nobody else wanted it. That needed to be said. Dean has been, and continues to be, a starkly ineffective leader of a party that is sorely in need of a sure steady hand. His histrionics and bombastic language drive away both new converts to his message and potential donors.
If he was just controversial Dean would be bad enough. Nevertheless, he is losing the fundraising race against Republicans by nearly 2 to 1 and that spells big trouble in light of the aforementioned Big Labor trouble his party is in.
By comparison (RNC) Chairman Ken Mehlman recently announced that the RNC received over $85.7 million in contributions during the first ten months of 2005, a fundraising record in federal funds for a non-presidential election year.
The Democratic Congressional campaign Committee ( DCCC ) reached just about rock bottom in fund raising for October. After all the media’s predictions of the end of the Republican Party, after all the non-stop attacks on President Bush and every prominent Republican in America. After all of Howard Dean’s smugness and condescension, the DCCC raised just 1.6 million dollars in October.
There are several more factors that will work against the Democrats in 2006 and 2008. They will be discussed in parts II and III of this series, which will be posted over the coming days. All of these essays are offered as a rebuttal to the foolishness we hear from the “Beltway experts” who are giving us their own wishful thinking every day without any logical foundation.
Ping.
Dream on. You continue to have delusions of adequacy.
Mike ---
That will NEVER happen. Too many Rats are passionate about gun control.
For those that don't know, talentless "rock star" Moby, publicly said the way for liberals to win is to pretend they are disgruntled conservatives on online conservative forums.
In the 22nd district of TX, the rats are running a former congressman with a history of being progun. It has started.
We don't need Democrats anymore with today's Republicans.
I predict a low turnout.
Not what I'd call an analysis. More like a philosophical musing.
An analysis would lay out each Congressional race and flag those where the margin of victory last time for the incumbent was < 10%. Then present current polling in those "at risk" districts and determine if the numbers add up to enough districts to threaten the majority. Note also that the migration of New Orleans evacuees may affect this. Hopefully the state party organizations in the relevant locales were careful about that. For example, those who went to Utah were hopefully kept in a district where the GOP majority is overwhelming.
Ditto the Senate races.
Snowballs being thrown where you reside(hell)?
And who would that be TXBS.
The day those voters lose faith in the Republican Party is the day the GOP goes back to being a party of country-club liberals from the Northeast.
Yeah especially since today's Republican party is anti-homosexual marriage, pro-life, pro-2nd amendment, and pro-tax cuts.
Nick Lampson. And for the record I will not be voting for either. One is a rat the other is a free traitor who voted for cafta. I am hoping that the republicans cna get a primary challenge to Delay.
They say that in public, but many hear including me are having there doubts. There are still to many rockefeller republicans in the party.
JMO, wiht your rhetoric you have never voted for Delay, the bravest conservative in DC these days, but go ahead TXBS, help out Delay's enemines the liberal mainstream media, no one is stopping you.
At its root, gun control is not a Democrat vs. Republican issue at all. It is primarily an urban vs. rural issue, and it is often viewed along party lines simply because Democrats tend to be stronger in urban areas.
A Republican in an urban area (see Christie Whitman, Rudy Giuliani, etc. as Exhibits 1 and 2) is far more likely to support gun control legislation than a Democrat in a rural area.
IMO, actually not that many, but you already knew that.
I hope you are right, but I still see a fight for the Republicans to be winners in 2006 & 2008.
Too many citizens are unaware of how left the Democrats have gone and vote Dem like they say what religion they are-sort of automatic.
As far as finance, the Democrats can raise lots of cash without much help from organized labor. In Wisconsin, the Democrat gov. has $$ from the Indian casinos, the trial lawyers and the teachers union. Nationally, they have Hollywood and Soros.
Lampson would still be in the congress if he had not been redistricted out
All I am saying now is that it will be closer then Delay would like. He is a sstrong candidate.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.