Posted on 09/22/2005 4:34:38 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT V HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY PACKAGE #19
Discussion:
[NOTE: This analysis is based primarily on data from the Tropical Prediction Center. As my home office is still not set up, independent track and guidance analysis is not possible.]
RITA has likely peaked in intensity. That is the good news.
The bad news is the peak is at 175 MPH, and the storm has now taken a decided turn to the right. NHC advises the track above is to the left (West) of the guidance ensemble, and that Sabine Pass is the more likely target, as opposed to Galveston.
The model runs are on the following graphic:
New Orleans is likely to receive between 3 and 5 inches of rain.
The eastward shift in track guidance is resulting in RITA staying over the Loop Current longer than previously expected. This will keep the storm at its current intensity for the balance of the day.
Further strengthening is unlikely as an eyewall replacement cycle is underway--this phenomenon generally locks a hurricane at a specific intensity, if it doesn't actually weaken, until the process is complete.
RITA is expected to move off the Loop Current prior to landfall.
CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATES PLACE THE WIND SPEED OF RITA AT LANDFALL AT 150 MPH--THIS IS JUST SHY OF CATEGORY V, BUT STILL STRONGER THAN KATRINA.
The cyclone's central pressure is 897 MB or 26.49" Hg. This makes RITA the third most intense hurricane in history. The diameter of hurricane force winds is 140 miles, while tropical storm winds have a diameter of 370 miles.
RITA is currently about 515 miles SE of Galveston and 615 miles ESE of Corpus Christi.
A HP center over western TX will likely continue steering RITA to the right even after landfall, keeping the system locked in eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
The current strike probabilities are summarized on the graphic that follows:
And a quick snap of Rita from space, in the IR spectrum, with false color enhancement--
Now for this thought...
FULLY 20 PERCENT OF THE UNITED STATES GASOLINE REFINING CAPACITY LIES IN THE PATH OF RITA
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
I appreciate your weather posts. I have given up trying to follow the live threads.
1780 -- Deadliest storm on record hits Caribbean ---
The Great Hurricane of 1780 claimed an estimated 22,000 lives in the Caribbean and destroyed the British and French fleets. This remains the deadliest hurricane in recorded history.
Good morning! Prayers for those in Rita's path, and who are struggling to survive Katrina.
Thanks, Sweetie.
I've got several things to do to finish up before I take my bath in anti bacterial soap.
.How you feeling?
IG, thinking about you this a.m.
Thinking about and praying for all those in Rita's path, and especially our kassie, will keep me busy today.
Iowa Granny, I know waiting around until 10:30 must be tough, but it'll all be over today, and we will rejoice w/you.
Wouldn't you know it.....Millions facing the most monstrous hurricane in history along the Gulf Coast and CNN is still on "Road to Recovery" in NO.
It's George Bush's fault.
I hope you get your office set up before hurricane season is over. You and Dennis Miller (Ch. 28 meteorologists here) are the best predictors on the paths of hurricanes in all of CONUS.
I never thought I'd wish November 30th to get here quickly.
Prayers for the Texas gulf coast going up...
5.56mm
It's reported, via Rush, that the polar ice caps are melting ON MARS. This, too, is Bush's fault. If he had only signed the Kyoto Protecals. Darn!
Yes, global warming is now so bad it is affecting other planets.
Like I got hit by a truck. I'm gonna have to call in again...
My democrat sister started telling me last night about how she was sure global warming was causing the hurricanes. I very politely told her that hurricanse go in cycles, and while I am certain there has been some global warming (that was a fib made so as not to start an all-out war), hurricanse go in cycles and we are in an up cycle.
No news yet if my niece has made it to Dallas. She and fiance were in traffic jam last night, according to my brother. They have their kitty with them, as all people of my family take pets along in situations like this.
Got to go babysit. Will be thinking of you and will check in later today.
Storm names for systems past the 21st named storm, in case they're needed...
22 - ALPHA
23 - BETA
24 - GAMMA
25 - DELTA
26 - EPSILON
27 - ZETA
28 - ETA
29 - THETA
30 - IOTA
Molly, my next door neighbor is a rabid Indians fan (I may have told you this). He's got his Indian's flag out, and has been giving me crap about the Yankees all season long. Well, well lookie here...
The Big Unit pitches Yankees into FIRST place...
5.56mm
Thanks...I think...sheesh.
5.56mm
Mike, I think you have mentioned that looney smart neighbor of yours....;^)
ony, I was tired last night...worse today, but that's another story...
When I wrote "flat" I really meant "low"...the mainland n. of Galveston is flat, but it's very low, with criss-crossing bayous, plus the Galveston Bay area to the east....lots of water IOW...
That's right! Some scientist...some report about the heat of the sun is up! That accounts for us - the Earth - and Mars....
Okay, it's 7:30. I am suppose to go off clear liquids NOW.
I think I will cheat a little and finish the cup I'm working on.
Gotta tend to details. bbl
The Senate Jud. Cmte. votes on Roberts this a.m.: 9:30 ET carried on CSPAM III
Though, I admit, that's small comfort with a 25-foot storm surge rolling in to the right of the center of RITA.
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