Posted on 09/22/2005 4:34:38 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT V HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY PACKAGE #19
Discussion:
[NOTE: This analysis is based primarily on data from the Tropical Prediction Center. As my home office is still not set up, independent track and guidance analysis is not possible.]
RITA has likely peaked in intensity. That is the good news.
The bad news is the peak is at 175 MPH, and the storm has now taken a decided turn to the right. NHC advises the track above is to the left (West) of the guidance ensemble, and that Sabine Pass is the more likely target, as opposed to Galveston.
The model runs are on the following graphic:
New Orleans is likely to receive between 3 and 5 inches of rain.
The eastward shift in track guidance is resulting in RITA staying over the Loop Current longer than previously expected. This will keep the storm at its current intensity for the balance of the day.
Further strengthening is unlikely as an eyewall replacement cycle is underway--this phenomenon generally locks a hurricane at a specific intensity, if it doesn't actually weaken, until the process is complete.
RITA is expected to move off the Loop Current prior to landfall.
CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATES PLACE THE WIND SPEED OF RITA AT LANDFALL AT 150 MPH--THIS IS JUST SHY OF CATEGORY V, BUT STILL STRONGER THAN KATRINA.
The cyclone's central pressure is 897 MB or 26.49" Hg. This makes RITA the third most intense hurricane in history. The diameter of hurricane force winds is 140 miles, while tropical storm winds have a diameter of 370 miles.
RITA is currently about 515 miles SE of Galveston and 615 miles ESE of Corpus Christi.
A HP center over western TX will likely continue steering RITA to the right even after landfall, keeping the system locked in eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
The current strike probabilities are summarized on the graphic that follows:
And a quick snap of Rita from space, in the IR spectrum, with false color enhancement--
Now for this thought...
FULLY 20 PERCENT OF THE UNITED STATES GASOLINE REFINING CAPACITY LIES IN THE PATH OF RITA
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
i'm here
pain not so bad
need to eat a little something before i take meds
going to lurk
What a terrible thing to ask just so they get $$$.
Toby when I get in tonight I'll put up some links so you can listen to Rush and Hannity while you are on the computer.
I wish I was closer, I'd serve you breakfast fit for a recovering lady.
Toby, I think...in fact, I'm sure...that you would enjoy the Tony Snow show thread. There's a place for you to click onto it on the thread. Turn your volume on and you're in for a treat. Tony actually replies to our posts there during the show. He interviews interesting people and talks about everything in the news. Able Danger is not going away if his show has anything to do w/it. He said yesterday that he's been calling Rumsfeldt, his good friend, to come on the show too. If you get mad about some politician and slip up and think of a cuss word to vent your rage, we have a cyber Cuss'in jar that you have to put .25 cents in! It's informative and great fun.....hope to see you there today if you're interested.
Well, my home has been hi jacked by a guest, too, but she wants nothing to do with a computer. Thank goodness.
One of the many best threads. How great is it that he replies during his show.
Back tonight.
Oh, I forgot to ping Tony while I was recruiting another listener to his superb show! Sorry, Tony.
Take care....enjoy. I hope those spasm stop so you can have a good time.
From where did you order that radio? I know you mentioned it before, but I don't remember. LLBean?
Okay. See you later...tonight.
Reports say that 90% of Gavelston have left.
Go to Amazon.com and click on electronics, then put "portable weather radio" in the search bar. Amazon doesn't actually sell them themselves but they connect you to the vendor that does. I can't wait to get to the PO today and get mine.
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