Posted on 09/22/2005 4:34:38 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT V HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY PACKAGE #19
Discussion:
[NOTE: This analysis is based primarily on data from the Tropical Prediction Center. As my home office is still not set up, independent track and guidance analysis is not possible.]
RITA has likely peaked in intensity. That is the good news.
The bad news is the peak is at 175 MPH, and the storm has now taken a decided turn to the right. NHC advises the track above is to the left (West) of the guidance ensemble, and that Sabine Pass is the more likely target, as opposed to Galveston.
The model runs are on the following graphic:
New Orleans is likely to receive between 3 and 5 inches of rain.
The eastward shift in track guidance is resulting in RITA staying over the Loop Current longer than previously expected. This will keep the storm at its current intensity for the balance of the day.
Further strengthening is unlikely as an eyewall replacement cycle is underway--this phenomenon generally locks a hurricane at a specific intensity, if it doesn't actually weaken, until the process is complete.
RITA is expected to move off the Loop Current prior to landfall.
CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATES PLACE THE WIND SPEED OF RITA AT LANDFALL AT 150 MPH--THIS IS JUST SHY OF CATEGORY V, BUT STILL STRONGER THAN KATRINA.
The cyclone's central pressure is 897 MB or 26.49" Hg. This makes RITA the third most intense hurricane in history. The diameter of hurricane force winds is 140 miles, while tropical storm winds have a diameter of 370 miles.
RITA is currently about 515 miles SE of Galveston and 615 miles ESE of Corpus Christi.
A HP center over western TX will likely continue steering RITA to the right even after landfall, keeping the system locked in eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
The current strike probabilities are summarized on the graphic that follows:
And a quick snap of Rita from space, in the IR spectrum, with false color enhancement--
Now for this thought...
FULLY 20 PERCENT OF THE UNITED STATES GASOLINE REFINING CAPACITY LIES IN THE PATH OF RITA
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
Good early morning.
Glad the back problem wasn't more serious, UG.
How ya' doin', "Lefty?" Hope the drugs made you sleep a really long time and you're feeling no pain.
Take good care of self today, Neets.
I'm worried about Rita affecting you, Toby. What are you hearing from the local weatherman?
Prayers for your safety continue........Shana and girls, too!
I hope today brings less pain and more healing your way, Neets and Iowa Granny.
Waiting for the coming landfall and attendant destruction of Rita is getting to me even though I am not in her path. My fervent prayers are with all who are. Kassie, you and your family are at the top of my prayer list. Gulfcoast6, just thinking about the possibility of you and your family experiencing anything more than you already have is disquieting. Both of you keep in touch w/all of us here as soon as you are able.
LBKQ, looks like we're the early birds this morning.
Most times I feel like the ONLY early bird. Was happy to see you were up at 2AM yesterday. How sick is that?!!
;o)
If you lose power, Toby, please call lysie right away.
Please take extra special care of self!!!
I mistakenly estimated their weights as being 16 lbs. each. The vet weighed them yesterday, and the aggregate weight of my protectors is 25 lbs. Bo weighs 15 lbs. and his little brother, Toot, weighs in at 10 lbs. No intruder will ever get by THEM. LOL
I'm opening the dept this morning so I'm up early.
Good morning.
It's supposed to come today, and I'm waiting to see for myself if it's as good as they've said. If so, I thought these would make good Christmas gifts for a few of those on my Christmas list.
I had a lab mix....Trudy..who did the same. In the fall when the leaves dropped it was awful. She was a good dog, tho.
You must be the kind of person my son's boss told me that he was, Dog........"the last of a dying breed"! Dependable!
Good morning, friend...big bro. ;-)
:-)
Toby does your computer have speakers?
If it does....you can listen to the radio thru the computer.
Just saw your sign and clicked my SUV computer to skid into the drive-through window for coffee and donuts! (Now that they've done their morning "duty", Bo and Toot are fast asleep on my feet...gotta stay close in to their mama, you know.)
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