Posted on 09/22/2005 4:34:38 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT V HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY PACKAGE #19
Discussion:
[NOTE: This analysis is based primarily on data from the Tropical Prediction Center. As my home office is still not set up, independent track and guidance analysis is not possible.]
RITA has likely peaked in intensity. That is the good news.
The bad news is the peak is at 175 MPH, and the storm has now taken a decided turn to the right. NHC advises the track above is to the left (West) of the guidance ensemble, and that Sabine Pass is the more likely target, as opposed to Galveston.
The model runs are on the following graphic:
New Orleans is likely to receive between 3 and 5 inches of rain.
The eastward shift in track guidance is resulting in RITA staying over the Loop Current longer than previously expected. This will keep the storm at its current intensity for the balance of the day.
Further strengthening is unlikely as an eyewall replacement cycle is underway--this phenomenon generally locks a hurricane at a specific intensity, if it doesn't actually weaken, until the process is complete.
RITA is expected to move off the Loop Current prior to landfall.
CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATES PLACE THE WIND SPEED OF RITA AT LANDFALL AT 150 MPH--THIS IS JUST SHY OF CATEGORY V, BUT STILL STRONGER THAN KATRINA.
The cyclone's central pressure is 897 MB or 26.49" Hg. This makes RITA the third most intense hurricane in history. The diameter of hurricane force winds is 140 miles, while tropical storm winds have a diameter of 370 miles.
RITA is currently about 515 miles SE of Galveston and 615 miles ESE of Corpus Christi.
A HP center over western TX will likely continue steering RITA to the right even after landfall, keeping the system locked in eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
The current strike probabilities are summarized on the graphic that follows:
And a quick snap of Rita from space, in the IR spectrum, with false color enhancement--
Now for this thought...
FULLY 20 PERCENT OF THE UNITED STATES GASOLINE REFINING CAPACITY LIES IN THE PATH OF RITA
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
I'm home
hunting & pecking
I cna't thank everyone personally for prayers
The meds are good
make me sleepy
t'will be a long night
Thinking of you and hoping all went well today.
So, are you going to cover for him or not?
I love those meds.
Thank you for laboring to peck out a post to let us know you're home. Hope the meds help minimize the pain. Prayers continuing. ***HUGS***
pain not any worse than before
just differe t
hard to freep with left hand
first round of kids arriving shortly to assist.
Tagline change
Let them spoil you.
Hi, friend!:)
Try not to over-do it for the first few days.
I don't know what to believe anymore with this crazy storm.
Going to be an interesting couple of days............
Off to teach. bbl fer sure.........
No.
I have to go. The youngest is being inducted into her school's honor society. BUT, before I go, how did the meeting with the real estate agent go?
I'll read your reply when I get back.
He'll get wet. There will be some wind. But the trees in San Antonio don't get that tall. Ev will be fine.
BBL
It's hard to capitalize with just one usable hand, I see. Hugs.
Thanks for checking in! So glad you're home and feeling sleepy. Let those 'kids' pamper you for a really long time.
How are you feeling, sweetie?
I went to work, but should have stayed home.
Will stay home tomorrow.
Pushed too much not realizing I was worse than i thought.
I'm so glad to see you back and that it's over. Now, on w/the healing. Why don't you pass up the Dawn Patrol tomorrow morning and sleep in? (We can talk about you then. LOL)
I was afraid of that.
Can you go in for just a little bit tomorrow?
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