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AMERICA - The Right Way!! (Day 1677) [Remember the Trade Center!!]
Various News Sources and FReepers | August 24, 2005 | All of Us

Posted on 08/24/2005 4:29:11 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society

We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!

Good morning!!

Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY #3

000

WTNT42 KNHC 240857

TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE NIGHT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAT IT WAS 12 HR AGO...ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 75-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 925 MB IN THAT AREA...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM SURFACE WINDS.

HOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...AND NONE OF THE BAHAMAS STATIONS ARE REPORTING MORE THAN 20 KT WINDS... IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/6. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...FORECAST THE WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. S. MOVES EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN 24-48 HR...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS KEEPS A WEAKNESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL OVER FLORIDA AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD BY 120 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO CROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF.

THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE OLD TRACK AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND A POCKET OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT. ONCE THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 55-65 KT AS IT REACHES FLORIDA.

ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL BRINGS IT TO FLORIDA AS A DEPRESSION.

THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE REASONABLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE SHIPS MODEL...CALLING FOR A 60 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER FLORIDA...THE RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA LATER TODAY... POSSIBLY INCLUDING A HURRICANE WATCH IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT PRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005. THIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 24.0N 76.4W 30 KT

12HR VT 24/1800Z 24.7N 77.1W 40 KT

24HR VT 25/0600Z 25.5N 78.0W 45 KT

36HR VT 25/1800Z 25.9N 78.9W 50 KT

48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.0W 60 KT

72HR VT 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER

120HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 65 KT

$$

In other news...

Nine states in the northeastern United States have decided to sip the Kyoto kool-aid. In a regional agreement, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont have decided that power plant emissions of carbon dioxide, in the aggregate, will be frozen at current levels and then reduced by 10 percent by 2020. Most interesting, the deal was done through confidential(!!) memoranda between the governors of those states. THE PEOPLE OF THESE STATES HAD NO SAY!

The mother of Michael Jackson's accuser in the recent trial has now been charged with welfare fraud.

The Secretary of Homeland Security has said that increasing border security along the United States southern border will be a priority.

For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.


TOPICS: AMERICA - The Right Way!!
KEYWORDS: atrw; letsroll
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To: Jemian

SEE...:-)


41 posted on 08/24/2005 5:31:24 AM PDT by Dog (Troll hunter wannabe....of note.)
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To: Molly Pitcher

Baseball I like. I coached 4 & 5 year old T-ball this summer, and I've decided those kids are the ones who should make the millions ... they put on a far better show than the steriod abusers.


42 posted on 08/24/2005 5:32:10 AM PDT by SittinYonder (Nemo me impune lacessit)
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To: Dog

They're still better than the rest.


43 posted on 08/24/2005 5:32:31 AM PDT by Jemian (It's better to be historically accurate than politically correct.)
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To: Jemian

It's responding...I just had to sneak up on her to get it in her ear this morning.


44 posted on 08/24/2005 5:32:42 AM PDT by Dog
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To: Dog
Ah, opening for a Mel pix! Thanks Dog!


45 posted on 08/24/2005 5:34:05 AM PDT by DollyCali (Don't tell GOD how big your storm is -- Tell the storm how B-I-G your s God is!)
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To: lysie
Just about...seems like it was started in summer, and now it's fall!

He's working on some moulding today for the tops of the cabinets, and waiting on some doors that had to be reordered. Painter coming shortly to paint the insides of the cabinets, & the ceiling which was patched...

46 posted on 08/24/2005 5:34:23 AM PDT by Molly Pitcher (We are Americans...the sons and daughters of liberty...*.from FReeper the Real fifi*))
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To: SittinYonder

You have apoint, there. I have found this summer that minor league baseball can be quite good, tho!!


47 posted on 08/24/2005 5:35:46 AM PDT by Molly Pitcher (We are Americans...the sons and daughters of liberty...*.from FReeper the Real fifi*))
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To: SittinYonder; Jemian
Can you dance?

Pay no attention to Jemian. If you COULD dance, she'd run the other way.

Welcome to ATRW. We're just a happy, CIVIL, bunch of Conservatives here. We welcome you to our little community. No need to be embarassed about being singled out.

48 posted on 08/24/2005 5:36:46 AM PDT by Iowa Granny (friends are quiet angels who lift us to our feet when our wings have trouble remembering how to fly.)
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To: Dog
whose birthday is celebrated daily by these kind folks....

Hey...speaking of birthdays, let me check my calendar....

49 posted on 08/24/2005 5:37:28 AM PDT by Molly Pitcher (We are Americans...the sons and daughters of liberty...*.from FReeper the Real fifi*))
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To: Dog

LOL! It is hard to sneak up on a dog. That reminds me of JT when he comes down with malaria. The only reliable diagnosis is done with a blood smear on a glass slide. But he is terrified of needles and could not hold still when he was younger. I would wait until he was sound asleep. Then, I would sneak up, stick his finger and try to get a few drops on the slide before he fully woke up. It sounds horrible now, being sound asleep and then getting stuck, but that was the only way to do it. He knew it and I knew it and the diagnosis needed to be made to properly dose him. It is funny now.


50 posted on 08/24/2005 5:37:39 AM PDT by Jemian (It's better to be historically accurate than politically correct.)
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To: Dog; Bitwhacker

AND...if anyone deserves daily birthday celebrations, it is SURELY Bit!


51 posted on 08/24/2005 5:38:33 AM PDT by Molly Pitcher (We are Americans...the sons and daughters of liberty...*.from FReeper the Real fifi*))
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To: Molly Pitcher

Fav memories from childhood were going to minor league games in the town where I lived. Small stadium with aluminum bleachers, kids running all over the place, throwing the ball in grass beside the field ... I wish there was a nearby team for me to take my kids to see.


52 posted on 08/24/2005 5:39:00 AM PDT by SittinYonder (Nemo me impune lacessit)
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To: Iowa Granny

HEY! I love to dance. I especially like the foxtrot and rumba.


53 posted on 08/24/2005 5:39:00 AM PDT by Jemian (It's better to be historically accurate than politically correct.)
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To: DollyCali

Ahhhhh, thanks.


54 posted on 08/24/2005 5:39:03 AM PDT by kassie
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To: Chairman_December_19th_Society
looking at the projected map chair & the path over Tampa/st Pete. Just put my two aunts on plane yesterday to their new home in Pinellas park. (yes, close to where Terri died). 4 months of getting 93 year old's condo sold, things sold/auction packed. She is moving in with the youngster .. aunt who is 82 in her home there. They really don't need a hurricane .. nor does anyone else. Thanks for your continual updates on the storm systems.

I need to get busy at MY place today now that they are gone & that time consuming situation over the years has ended.
55 posted on 08/24/2005 5:39:12 AM PDT by DollyCali (Don't tell GOD how big your storm is -- Tell the storm how B-I-G your s God is!)
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To: Jemian

Hugs and prayers for you and JT.


56 posted on 08/24/2005 5:39:22 AM PDT by kassie
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To: Molly Pitcher

Wish it was fall here!


57 posted on 08/24/2005 5:39:44 AM PDT by kassie
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To: Molly Pitcher; Bitwhacker
Have I forgotten his birthday? Oooops!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, BIT!

58 posted on 08/24/2005 5:41:18 AM PDT by Jemian (It's better to be historically accurate than politically correct.)
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To: Jemian
I like the latin dances too. Finding partners who are skillful is always the trick. how about dancing with wolves, jemian????


59 posted on 08/24/2005 5:43:35 AM PDT by DollyCali (Don't tell GOD how big your storm is -- Tell the storm how B-I-G your s God is!)
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To: M Kehoe; The Raven; Neets; ABG(anybody but Gore); b4its2late
You know...one thing we could probably safely do is discuss the White Sox...

Apparently Ozzie Guillen is getting more and more volatile, and Hawk Harrelson, the tv play-by-play and one of the print columnists are having a very public feud!

60 posted on 08/24/2005 5:44:01 AM PDT by Molly Pitcher (We are Americans...the sons and daughters of liberty...*.from FReeper the Real fifi*))
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