IEM Market GAP is closing; "Closer" to reflecting the Polls now

[CSI007]

Kerry is now where he is on most of the polls around 47% Bush at about 54%. The 47% is about where most polls show Kerry's ceiling. While its obvious that the extremely high numbers of the past few weeks for Bush had to come down, where do you all expect it to end up? Did the 2000 election show a change of the leader close to election day? Incidently, tradesports numbers are now very similar to these.

Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average DEM04_G52 0.163 0.165 0.165 0.140 0.165 0.157 DEM04_L52 0.304 0.312 0.311 0.295 0.322 0.306 .476

REP04_L52 0.323 0.324 0.324 0.300 0.330 0.326 REP04_G52 0.209 0.218 0.219 0.194 0.250 0.208 .541

[tdewey10]

Why on earth should the market reflect the polls? The market should > polls.

[CSI007]

Sorry about the formatting above.

Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
DEM04_G52 0.163 0.165 0.165 0.140 0.165 0.157
DEM04_L52 0.304 0.312 0.311 0.295 0.322 0.306

REP04_L52 0.323 0.324 0.324 0.300 0.330 0.326
REP04_G52 0.209 0.218 0.219 0.194 0.250 0.208

[Redmen4ever]

With just a few days to go, the odds in the winner take all contract would either approach 100 - 0 percent, or hover around 50 percent. It looks like we're in the hovering around 50 percent category.

[mlbford2]

Bush is surging in TradeSport.com this morning 13-15pnt gap last I checked.

[CSI007]

Sorry, I have been looking at so many numbers lately. You are correct. Tradesports still has about a 13 point spread.

[finnman69]

CSI007
Since Oct 19, 2004

[elizabetty]

The graph shows it currently at about 56% to 43%
Looks like the typical, after weekend fluctuation.

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm

[sarasota]

Just shows how "powerful" polls are. A poll on the polls on msnbc.com has the majority of pollsters saying that we'll be surprised at how poorly the polls reflect the outcome of the election (paraphrase).