[Paradox]

That is the conventional wisdom, however in the last Presidential election, the undecided broke more for Gore.

[flashbunny]

Trolling today????

[asgardshill]

The dolts over at DU keep talking about how late-deciders inevitably break heavily for the challenger. This is the one thing that has me worried.

I would simply consider the source, and let not your heart be troubled. Its in the bag.

And, welcome to FreeRepublic.

[kesg]

The undecideds will essentially break in accordance with the President's job approval rating -- the single best predictor of a President's vote on election day.

[Keith in Iowa]

Pat Cadell has said exactly the opposite is true in Presidential elections, as the undecideds go for the safe choice - the incumbent.

[jbarkley]

I thought I heard Pat Cadell mention several times that undecideds usually break for the challenger, except in Presidential elections where they break for the incumbent.

[go star go]

it's going to be a bush landslide. that's why ther have been no major kerry people on tv since the last debate.

[quidnunc]

Libertarian Nationalist GOPr wrote: The dolts over at DU keep talking about how late-deciders inevitably break heavily for the challenger.

That's true for congressional races but not presidential races.

[Jeff Head]

Can't say about the undecided. Sounds like they are grasping for straws. Don't think there are too many undecideds at this point anyway. either way...

I'm calling it for Bush

[Nova]

It's a good cover for voter fraud

[exit82]

"Is anyone else hearing this?"

What's the frequency, Kenneth?;)

[Thickman]

This is unconventional wisdom. It is congressional races that tend to break for challengers when the undecided vote exceeds the gap between the two candidates. In presidential races undecideds tend to vote for the incumbent (I remember this from poly sci classes in college). I would venture to guess that the actual CW of undecideds breaking for the incumbent would hold even truer in a time of war.

[eyespysomething]

LOL, hello obvious.

Troll.

Don't worry, November 2 is coming up fast, then you can all have a good cry when Kerry loses. Don't forget to stock up on the anti-depressants, you're gonna need 'em.

[Southflanknorthpawsis]

[Zebra]

This is a pre-9-11 phenomenon. The undecideds will break for the firm and strong on security and against the flip-flopper globalist. Bet on it.

[eyespysomething]

What, no replies to anyone?

[nathanbedford]

Yes, KESG has it right, the vote will pursue the approval rating.

More, Dales, believes the opposite is historically true, the undecideds break for the incumbent. Dales blog is very much worth your time and he frequently contributes to this forum. Dales also confirms the importance of the (Gallup) approval numbers.

Welcome aboard.

[eyespysomething]

[JRandomFreeper]

I was surpised at the support I have seen for Bush here in NC. Even my co-workers that one would expect to stay on the liberal plantation are fed up with the rich Kerry Ketchup-boy. Big (arrogant) money doesn't play well with folks that do a lot of service work.

/john

[Question Liberal Authority]

The "undecideds break for the challenger" is mostly true in local elections. In presidential elections, undecideds usually break for the incumbent.

Al Gore surged late in 2000 not because of undecideds breaking for him, but because of the DUI thing. It's estimated that as many as 4 million evangelicals stayed home on election day because of that.

This time around, the evangelicals are pumped for Bush. It seems unlikely the Dems could pull off an "October Surprise" because Bush is a known quantity and they've been throwing the kitchen sink at him for 4 years.