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To: David Noles

Bush has a real problem, even electorally, that emerged after the disastrous first debate and hasn't yet been corrected. If he loses Ohio and its 20 electoral votes (I think this likely), he has to hold New Hampshire and Nevada (I really don't think Colorado is in play), which gives him 258, 12 short of what he needs. In such event, he has to carry either Wisconsin and Iowa or Wisconsin and Minnesota and all three states have been trending away from him. Given Bush's prospective southern and western margins, he is more apt to win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote to Kerry. I have no idea who advised him on the first debate but he should never again have a role in Republican politics.


15 posted on 10/13/2004 9:18:55 AM PDT by laconic
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To: laconic

You will have to get the RNC to buy that. Good luck.


18 posted on 10/13/2004 9:20:53 AM PDT by chalkman (Three can keep a secret if two are dead.)
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To: laconic
You are so wrong. The first debate, nor the second, has effected this election. And the third sans a major gaffe on the part of either candidate, will have no effect.

Go out and gas up your car, when you pay the tab, you will know what has turned this election in favor of hanoi john.

26 posted on 10/13/2004 9:24:14 AM PDT by AxelPaulsenJr (Pray Daily For Our Troops and President Bush)
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To: laconic
Bush has a real problem, even electorally, that emerged after the disastrous first debate and hasn't yet been corrected.

What are you smoking?

30 posted on 10/13/2004 9:28:41 AM PDT by Southflanknorthpawsis (FR = A pajama party 24/7)
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To: laconic

If Bush wins the popular vote but loses the EC I wonder if conservatives will change their minds and support doing away with the EC. I tend to think that is the right thing to do. With all the biggest states trending Dem lately (except TX and possibly FL) it looks as if in the future the Repub. candidate for president will be at a disadvantage. Maybe even in this election, sad to say.


39 posted on 10/13/2004 10:04:20 AM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: laconic

He can win without OH. He is ahead in both WI and NM. That would do it.


40 posted on 10/13/2004 10:10:18 AM PDT by ultima ratio
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To: laconic
Not true...

Bush continues to hold the lead in Wisconsin.

I know... believe me, I know.

46 posted on 10/13/2004 6:48:50 PM PDT by Northern Yankee (Freedom Needs A Soldier!)
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