[bitt]

welcome.

[TexasTransplant]

little holes in great big alaska, i typed this very slowly cause i know you can't read fast

[deport]

Welcome..... be proud...... fly your state flag

[hellinahandcart]

I'm experiencing deja vu.

[glorgau]

I'm sure someone in Washington is "burning the midnight oil" looking for a solution. ;-)

[RightWhale]

love all things Alaska

Are you in Alaska?

[El Sordo]

As being well informed is the duty of a citizen, I submit a bit of counterpoint.

http://www.people.cornell.edu/pages/tg21/usgs.html - The Origin of Methane (and Oil) in the Crust of the Earth

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/style/features/daily/heretic110199.htm - More on Thomas Gold

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/fr/596421/posts - The world has more oil not less

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/691074/posts - Potential oil supply refill?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/671542/posts - Oil Fields' Free Refill - More oil than we thought (maybe)

http://www.csun.edu/~vcgeo005/Energy.html - CONSIDERATIONS ABOUT RECENT PREDICTIONS

OF IMPENDING SHORTAGES OF PETROLEUM

EVALUATED FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF

MODERN PETROLEUM SCIENCE



I'm too bloody lazy to do the HTML. I like to think of this as being more efficient.

[Old Professer]

I bought ten of those gas-saving gadgets last year, for the past several months I've been saving my left-over gas in empty milk jugs.

[BroJoeK]

In a previous posting judy willow wrote: "There could be no better or more appropriate time for the ultimate sanction. With just the tiniest bit of guts, we could stop importing oil this very day. We have at least 200 years worth of shale oil in this country and Canada has 1000 years worth of it, and the cost of extracting it has always been given as about $60/barrel."

Perhaps a few facts would help. Using numbers from the June 2004 National Geographic, world oil consumption is about 80 million barrels per day, of which the US produces around 6 million and uses 20 million.

Current US proven reserves of oil represent about 10 years of US production at current rates. Deep water Gulf of Mexico and ANWR, add perhaps another 20 years (again, at current production rates).

Alberta Canada's oil sands, in total, could supply about 200 years of current US consumption. About 10% of that is relatively cheap to extract & process -- $10 per barrel. The rest will, presumably, become increasingly more expensive. But that 10% alone puts Canada in the same proven reserve league with Saudi Arabia, and the total 100% of Canada's oil sands are greater than the entire Mideast by a factor of two.

If I remember from 25 years ago, US western oil shales while in the same general league as Canadian sands, were not considered economical below $40+ per barrel. But that was then, this is now -- I wonder if that question should be reconsidered?

Point is: there will always be "enough" oil, when the price is right to pay for extracting it.

And yes, Mideast oil comes to us with the huge extra "hidden cost" of maintaining a military effort necessary to stabilize the region. But, for sake of discussion, let's suppose the US "eliminated" those hidden costs by eliminating the US military operations in the Mideast. How long do you suppose it would be before Mideast terrorists got the WMD's to make 9/11 look like child's play?

Bottom line: I don't think there is any alternative to defeating international terrorism. In the mean time, the price of oil will rise to where it needs to be to pay for demand -- at least for the foreseeable future.

[gcruse]

Newkular power. And there's plenty of time. Hell, according to Gold, oil is continually being made, anyway. Old wells are indeed refilling.

[combat_boots]

It is the world, not just America, that is junked up on oil -- a supply now possibly a long-term target of the Al Qaeda. Yet most of this vital product passes through choke points whose security is ultimately guaranteed primarily by the American taxpayer. This list of world oil chokepoints illustrates the situation.

Location	Barrels per day
Bab el-Mandab	Location: Djibouti/Eritrea/Yemen; connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea Oil Flows (2000E): 3.2-3.3 million bbl/d Destination of Oil Exports: Europe, United States, Asia
Bosporus/Turkish Straits	Location: Turkey; this 17-mile long waterway divides Asia from Europe and connects the Black Sea with the Mediterranean Sea Oil Flows (2003E): 3.0 million bbl/d (nearly all southbound; mostly crude oil with several hundred thousand barrels per day of products as well) Destination of Oil Exports: Western and Southern Europe
Russian Oil and Gas Export Pipelines/Ports	Location: Russian oil and gas exports transit via pipelines that pass through Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland, Major Oil Export Ports: Novorossiisk (Russia -- Black Sea); Primorsk (Russia -- Baltic Sea/Gulf of Finland); Tuapse (Russia); Ventspils (Latvia); Odessa (Ukraine) Major Oil Pipelines (capacity, 2003E): Druzhba (1.2 million bbl/d); Baltic Pipeline System/Primorsk (840,000 bbl/d) Major Natural Gas Pipelines (capacity, 2003E): Brotherhood, Progress, and Union (1 trillion cubic feet -- tcf -- capacity each); Northern Lights (0.8 tcf); Volga/Urals-Vyborg, Finland (0.1 tcf). Yamal (to Europe, via Belarus; 1.0 Tcf, partly operational); Blue Stream (to Turkey via Black Sea; 0.56 Tcf, construction completed in October 2002) Destination of Oil and Gas Exports: Eastern Europe, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, France, other Western Europe.
Strait of Hormuz	Location: Oman/Iran; connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea Oil Flows (2003E): 15-15.5 million bbl/d Destination of Oil Exports: Japan, United States, Western Europe
Strait of Malacca	Location: Malaysia/Singapore; connects the Indian Ocean with the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. Oil Flows (2003E): 11 million bbl/d Destination of Oil Exports: Japan, South Korea, China, other Pacific Rim countries
Suez Canal and Sumed Pipline	Location: Egypt; connects the Red Sea and Gulf of Suez with the Mediterranean Sea Oil Flows (2003E): 3.8 million bbl/d. Of this total, the Sumed Pipeline transported 2.5 million bbl/d of oil northbound (nearly all from Saudi Arabia) and the Suez Canal about 1.3 million bbl/d total. Destination of Sumed Oil Exports: Predominantly Europe; also United States. Concerns/Background: Closure of the Suez Canal and/or Sumed Pipeline would divert tankers around the southern tip of Africa (the Cape of Good Hope), adding greatly to transit time and effectively tying up tanker capacity.

Except for the Russian oil pipelines and the Panama Canal, which has been excluded from this list, nearly all the oil chokepoints are in regions where groups like Al Qaeda can be expected to operate. But although the dependence on oil is global, the defense of these strategic corridors has not been internationalized. While the US does not use the oil shipped through the Straits of Malacca, it will naturally be the linchpin around which the Regional Maritime Security Initiative, which is expected to secure the Straits, is based. This is not to say that America alone bears the cost of defending the oil supply. STRATFOR's June 8, 2004 briefing (hat tip reader JM) estimates that consumers already paying for terror at the pump. "Stratfor sources associated with a number of oil firms and finance houses indicate that there is approximately an $8 "terror" premium factored into the price of each barrel of oil."

This premium is charged by oil companies to provide 'security' for their facilities. For example, "the Canadian oil company Nexen, which operates the ash-Shihr oil export terminal, agreed in January 2003 to provide assistance to the Yemeni government in improving security" after an attack on the French-flagged tanker Limburg in 2002. Those who would revile the Blackwater security contractors in Iraq as "mercenaries" trading "blood for oil" should consider how this is the least of its manifestations. Yet none of these private arrangements would be of much use without the cover provided by US naval and military forces. A major interdiction of the Straits of Hormuz, Malacca or the Suez Canal would beyond the capability of a private oil company, however large, to remedy.

There is a further price which goes beyond securing existing facilities. As STRATFOR pointed out, the real problem is adding new oil production in areas beset by terrorism threats. Unlike existing facilities which can be run by Saudis, new production or enhanced recovery from mature fields is critically dependent on expatriate expertise and new investment. And it is precisely those expatriates who are being attacked.
See Monday, June 14, 2004 Blood of some, Oil of many

http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/