Posted on 09/16/2003 9:59:09 AM PDT by Dan from Michigan
Edited on 05/07/2004 7:09:31 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
A lively six-candidate Republican primary shapes up for the seat of U.S. Rep. Nick Smith, R-Addison, who does not plan to seek a seventh term next year and is considering a 2006 challenge of Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat.
There are some sharp ideological contrasts but no clear front-runner in the field that includes two term-limited state representatives and two candidates who last year unsuccessfully sought other offices.
(Excerpt) Read more at detnews.com ...
Nick Smith was a maverick congressman. He got on my nerves with his unpredictable gun votes at times. He DID however vote for getting out of the UN, and was the only one in Michigan to do so. I give him a lot of credit for that.
So far we have declared:
Paul DeWeese - Formerly a State Rep from Williamston, but moved to Eaton Rapids where he has his medical practice. He has a bit of an independent streak in him. Solidly pro-life and pro-2nd Amendment. Real nice guy too.
Tim Walberg - Former State rep. I'm unfamiliar with him. I think he was term limited in 96 or 98. He's from Tipton in Lenawaee County. Sounds conservative.
Brad Smith - Nick Smith's son. I don't know where he stands on issues.
Anne Norlander - Calhoun County Clerk, ran for Sec of State in 02 - Seems like a nice lady from when I met her. I don't know where she stands on the issue, but I've heard she's conservativer.
Clark Bisbee - State Rep from Jackson. Very pro-business, but he's anti-gun. He voted against Shall Issue Concealed Carry.
Gene DeRossett - State Rep from Western Washtenaw County. He's pro-2a and pro-life, and is most known for writing the law repealing the helmet law. Good guy.
Three others(haven't declared) I'm watching on the GOP side is Mickey Mortimer who is a real good guy, Frank Fitzgerald, who is anti-gun, and the UBERRINO Joe Schwarz. Schwarz is pro-abort, pro-tax, a McCainiac, and makes Jenny Granholm look pro-gun. That's bad. I would hate to see either Fitz or Joe win.
On the dem side, Mark Schauer scares the hell out of me. He's slick and is a veteran of tough campaigns. Doug Spade is the other dem. Spade voted for CCW. Schauer voted for CCW, but voted for all the bad amendments, and also cosponsored a gun grab. He wants it both ways and would likely vote 100% anti in the house. He's..well, a RAT!
By the numbers
Eaton County - 49272 voters - Bush won by 1592, 50%(Granholm won it)
Jackson County - 61946 - Bush won by 3906 - 52%
Calhoun County - 55080 - Gore won by 1021 - 50%
Branch County - 15783 - Bush won by 2052 - 55%
Hillsdale County - 17473 - Bush won by 3988 - 60%
Lenawaee County - 40093 - Bush by 2316(dem state rep) - 52%
Washtenaw County(approx) - 42548 - Bush by 2214 - 51% (The real bad areas are in Dingell's district - only dem areas here are Scio(Next to Ann Arbor) and Sylvan townships(maybe).)
Bush won the district by about 15047 votes. This is not a gimmee, especially since Schauer has a 'moderate image', a lot of money, and is a ruthless campaigner, combined with a major GOP primary. I saw his commercials on Lansing TV(30 miles from Jackson) almost as often as the Mike Rogers ads. This was for state senate, not congress.
Jackson:
Jackson City by 2172 - 58%
Leoni Township by 229 - 51%
Calhoun:
Albion by 1238 - 70%
Battle Creek by 1718 - 53%
Bedford Township by 328 - 53%
Springfield by 280 - 57%
Lenawee:
Adrian City by 821 - 54%
Clinton Township by 25 - 49%
It's mostly a city vs suburb vs Country.
My guess is that the more rat part(the Ann Arbor border) is in Dingell's district. However, most of the rest of Washtenaw is marginal anyway. DeRossett won by the skin of his teeth last time(although I think he has Ann Arbor Township in his state rep district). The GOP calhoun townships will balance it out.(although I don't know which ones they are - probably marginal if near Battle Creek)
If the dem isn't Schauer or Doug Spade, this one is over before it starts. I don't think Spade will pull off the win. His brother ran for state senate, won Lenawee and got crushed out west(although it's a solid GOP seat because of that) in Branch, Hillsdale, and St Joseph counties. Schauer however held his own in Jackson against Mortimer and won BIG in Calhoun.
Bisbee's gun votes will cost him big throughout the district. Especially Eaton and Calhoun. Schauer ran as a "pro-gun dem"(talk) in 96 or 98 against an anti-gun GOP'er and won. I do expect business to line up behind Bisbee though. He's been great to them.
I wish I knew more about Walberg. It's been a few years since he was in office, and they still seem to like him in his area if the poll numbers are even remotely accurate. I don't know is 2a stance, but Lenawee is a big gun area. I have to wonder one thing. If Walberg's a minister, will that matter with the Catholic vote? I don't THINK it will in the general, because I think in this day in age, many Catholics would be happy just to see a Christian in office.
This is going to be an interesting race to say the least.
I asked a couple of insiders. Joe Schwarz may or may not run. Same with Mark Schauer or Doug Spade. Those aren't finalized, but I expect the dems to try and run someone strong for this spot. Al Widner I never heard of.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.