US Senate Elections:2004 Predictions So Far

14 Oct 03 | Stephen Boyd

[sboyd]

Here are just some observations I've made so far. Last year I only missed the South Dakota race, but Thune may have gotten cheated on that one. The unsaid rule is that you do not challenge close elections (Nixon/Kennedy/LBJ in the 1950's senate race) unless you’re Al Gore. I am not going to mention all, but the ones I am really watching.

FLA: Bob Graham blew it. There are probably many Floridians who are puzzled by some of the comments he has made. He will probably retire. If he does not, he will squeak by another term. But I think he will retire. This seat is definitely a toss up with a somewhat Republican lean. Foley would have been a very good nominee. If the Democrats nominate a true liberal or an idiot like the mayor of Miami, this seat is toast. By the way, Bob Graham was not a moderate in any shape or form. He has a very liberal voting record. I do believe that the president will do better in Fla this time and any Republican challenger should be able to raise a vast amount of money. Katherine Harris would have been a great pick, Crenshaw, Mica or even Ros-Lehtinen. Florida is loaded with qualified Republicans.

GA- I am almost certain this seat is going Republican. I like all of the candidates in the Republican primary race, but Isakson is going to get the nod. Who are the Democrats going to run? Could be Sam Nunn's daughter who lives in Atlanta and does not have any connections with middle or south GA like her father. I believe she has a kid and is not married. That is not going to go over well with some. Squires is the "other" candidate and she is a joke. I live in this state and it is going Republican. The Democrats in this state put the US Senate race third on their priority list. They want the state senate back more.

SC- Another easy one. Republican pick up. De Mint will probably get the nod and will beat Tenebaum if she is the nominee. She may be great in the education spot, but she will have to say whether she is for abortion, gun control, low taxes, and all that stuff in a real election. She will be to far to the left for the home of Strom Thurmond. Fritz Hollings was another "Bob Graham" and I am glad to see him go. Republican pick-up.

NC- Burr is going to get the nod easily. He is loaded with money and if the Democratic nominee is Bowles, then this should be a Republican win. No one likes a loser and I do not see Bowles coming back better than last time. Burr should get Dole to campaign with him. Edwards is gone! He is a sneak and a bit of a phony. He might do well in the Southern Democratic primaries, but it will not be enough. This seat leans Republican.

South Dakota- Will it be the return of Thune? I hope so. He is a strong contender and he should definitely remind South Dakotans of some of the horrible things Daschle has said in the last couple of years. Daschle is not Johnson and could not even hold his jockstrap on morals. The Democrats are going to have to spend some money on this race. This one is a tie right now. Last time I picked Thune and lost. But he could do it. Janklow is another story. He is in real trouble.

Nevada- Gibbons, you could have had it all. And you let us down! Gibbons would have beaten Reid. This race will still be close especially if the Republicans get a constitutional office holder to run against him. This race should be about taxes, taxes, and taxes. Nevadans are getting screwed on taxes. This race leans Democrat right now, but this could change quickly with a low-tax well known Republican.

Alaska- This will probably be the closest race in the nation. Alaska is very Republican, but Murkowski's father is not doing so well as governor. Knowles is a viable candidate, but he has escaped narrow defeat in 1994 and 1998 (Because of too many candidates in the race!)This one is hard to predict right now, but I believe that she can still beat Knowles. He will have been out of office for two years and that might hurt him some. This one will be a nail biter.

Honorable Mentions:

Illinois: Sorry, freepers, this seat is toast. Southern Illinois cannot out weigh Chicago.

Oklahoma- There should not be a probably here. Keating and Watts would be the best candidates, but I hear Watts will not run. If Istook changes his mind, it should be a pretty easy win. He may have gotten a phone call and that is why he dropped out of consideration for now. We will see. I am optimistic.

California (Kalifornia)- I really believe that Boxer can be beat. Marin may not be the most conservative, but I believe overall, that she could give Boxer a run for her money. This seat very much leans Democrat thanks to San Francisco and LA. Hopefully one day, Arnold will run.

LA- If Breaux retires then this could be a great race. I would like to see Foster run because he would probably win. If Breaux runs, then he is safe. LA Republicans need to focus on getting Jindal elected and getting that seat back from Rep. Alexander. That should not have happened.

Ark- Lincoln is unimpressive and unheard of. That will probably help her in the long run because there is no single issue to hit her on. "Flip-flop" Clark should have run as a Republican against her and sat in the senate for a while. But he was not smart enough for that. This one will go Democrat.

ND and Wis. are so disappointing that it upsets me. ND should not be ignored. Where are the real heavyweight candidates for these states? It is a shame in places like ND where there are obviously more Republican voters than Democrats and the Republican Party cannot find a top-notch candidate. Both are going Democrat easily right now. Feingold should be targeted though.

The rest of the seats seem to be stable even Colorado.

[sboyd]

2-3 pick-up for Republicans as of right now. But things could change for the worse or the better.

[Support Free Republic]

"Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be our
wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions,
they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
- John Adams -

Make your statement.

[Impy]

I think we'll get GA, SC, NC and FL and lose IL(:( ).

Burr will get the nod very easily as he has 0 primary opponents.

SD is a possible win and AK a possible lose as is PA if open although I think Toomey would win and hope he does.

LA if Breaux quits is a tossup unless Foster runs. He's not my favorite person but I'd support him cause he'd win. Rep. Vitter is the more likely candidate. This won would be harder than the other southern states though.

There's a chance in Nevada if a Statewider runs.

There is an outside chance in WA and in CA if someone strong emerges.




Too bad strong candiates passed in NV (biggest disappoinment) ND and WI. Luckily though even worst case a rat majority looks highly unlikeley.

[Clintonfatigued]

I wouldn't write off Illinois yet. Republicans have some interesting candidates running (especially Jack Ryan), and the 'Rats have a multi-candidate that could turn nasty.

[Amish]

I agree on Illinois. And I would not write off Nethercutt in Washington State.

[Abram]

Sorry to disappoint you, but Nethercutt has a snowballs chance in H--- to win this one. I am neighbors with Patty and she is a screwball, but Murray is tolerated by the Capital Hill/Queen Anne nuts. Washington is trending more and more leftist...

As for NC, a poll just came out that has Bowles ahead of Burr. All the numbers before had Burr running away with this. Any NC posters have a take on this?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/003218.html

[Abram]

I agree with you about Foley...he would be a great Senator and a great leader for the Republican Party, but the right-wing of the party would never go for it. I am friends with Congressman Kolbe, he is pretty convinced that Foley is indeed gay. To me that is not a big issue, but with some of the right wing of the party...that was enough for them to withhold support and cost the party the seat.

OK is going to be tough. Carson seems pretty tough on paper. I am not from OK so I can't say for certain. Largent may be good (I know him from when he played for the He-Hawks in Seattle). We wish that he would move back up here and run against Murray.

Georgia, unless the Ds get their ducks in a row, is going to switch parties.

IL will probably do the same, but Ryan is pretty impressive on paper, but will the voters be able to figure out there is no relation between this Ryan and former governor (soon to be wearing stripes) Ryan?

NV is a loss. I agree about Gibbons...it is too bad that he refuses to run. That is just too bad. Any other hopefuls out there? I understand Gov. Guinn is pretty unpopular.

[WFTR]

I can't imagine Governor Foster running in Louisiana. I think he's reached that point in life where he wants to enjoy what he's accomplished without having to squabble about politics on a daily basis. Furthermore, he's said that he's not interested in living in DC or spending much time there.

With her recent loss for the attorney general race, Suzie Terrell is considered a lost cause in Louisiana politics, but she still has supporters. If no one else runs, she would have enthusiastic support from some and the unenthusiastic votes of others.

If Bobby Jindal doesn't win the governorship, he'd be the strongest candidate for the Senate seat. He would have enthusiastic support from the conservatives, and others might help him just for the novelty of electing someone so young.

If Breaux decides to run again and no strong Republican enters the race against him, I might look into filing as a candidate. I would have zero chance of beating him, but I'd love the opportunity to have a campaign website and say mean things about him for being loyal to the Democrats. No one who is loyal to Bill Clinton and Mary Landrieu has any integrity, and he needs to be criticized for supporting them.

WFTR
Bill

[Reagan79]

Well Kolbe would probably be the expert on who is gay and who is not. I am inclined to support Foley because at least he is keeping it in the "closet" and not flaunting his lifestyle. No need to run around and make an idol out of your sexuality.

[Abram]

Thanks for your post. Unfortunately, Foley has dropped out and that is not option to "support him". I supported him until that announcement. I am not sure who to support...

[CPT Clay]

You were right about Graham!!!!

I hope the Dems are tied up trying to defend NY,CA,and picking up IL.

They are definitely on the run in the Southeast.

Dems have to be battled in SD,Wash state and NV.

Alaska and Oklahoma have to be defended!!

Maybe with the dems being tied up in expensive states(NY,Ca,IL, FL) the Gop can steal one in AR or ND or Wi or SD,NV or WA.

[zebrahead]

My top 10 races to watch:

1)Illinois - seat that is almost certain to switch parties, especially if Hynes wins the nomination. He's run and won statewide previously and will have the money and party machine behind him. I like Jack Ryan but it would be a minor miracle for him to hold this seat.

2)Georgia - not quite as certain as Illinois but it's getting there. Republicans have three big-name candidates in Johnny Isakson, Mac Collins, and Herman Cain. Either of the three should be the favorite to win unless the Dems magically find a big-time candidate.

3)South Carolina - its looking like DeMint versus Tenenbaum. While I expect it to be hotly contested, the Repubican slant of the state gives DeMint the edge.

4)North Carolina - Burr versus Bowles or Blue, most likely Bowles. Burr has the edge in fundraising and party support. Bowles is rich and has better name recognition. The state favors the GOP, especially in a presidential year. Advantage Burr.

5)Florida - a wide open free-for-all that will be fun to watch, Dems seems to have the bigger-name candidates at this point led by Deutsch and Penelas. McCollum is the arbitrary GOP frontrunner at this point. Let's hope he does a better job this time around if that is the case. A true tossup at this point.

6)Alaska - it's sad to say but this seat is very much in play. Knowles is the best candidate they best could have found. Murkowski has limited experience and the smear of cronyism against her. She will have cash and ANWR on her side. I say this is more or less a tossup that ever so slightly favors Murkowski.

7)Oklahoma - just appeared on the radar screen with Nickles retiring. Looks like it will be Carson versus Humphreys. You give the edge to Humphreys based on the make-up of the state and the fact that its a presidential year, but Carson should not be underestimated. He is one of the dangerous Dems that talks right, votes left, and nobody seems to notice.

8)Pennsylvania - a tossup if Toomey wins the nomination, strong advantage Specter is he is the nominee. Hoeffel isn't that great of a candidate but they could have done worse.

9)Washington - Nethercutt versus Murray. Dunn would have been better but Nethercutt is a top-flight candidate in terms of experience and fundraising. Much has been written about Nethercutt's underdog status in this race, but I feel he has a chance if Murray gives him something to work with, i.e. she opens her mouth. Bush must maintain his campaign in the state and pull in 46-47% for Nethercutt of have a real shot. This race gets my vote to be Georgia 2002 all over again with Nethercutt making a late surge due to some gaffe or controversy caused by Murray.

10)California - it may be a stretch we'll see. Former Sec. of State Bill Jones is probably the best positioned candidate right now to take on Boxer. He's run and won statewide before (the last Republican to do so prior to Arnold) and has solid conservative credentials. Must fundraise like a madman and be willing to take Boxer to task for her extremist positions on most issues. He seems to be more Tom McClintock than Matt Fong and that is why I give him a shot.

The GOP missed several opportunities this cycle. Arkansas, Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisonsin, and New York could have been made races if the right candidates had stepped up. The Dems probably could make a strong run agaisnt Bunning in Kentucky and Bond in Missouri but haven't been able to field good challengers as of yet.

10)California -

[spintreebob]

totally wrong on Illinois. This seat is up for grabs with no favorite. Turnout will win it. Who ever gets his supporters to the polls on election day wins. That means organization wins.

If Republicans cannot put together a grassroots army, ala the Moral Majority army of '94, the Republicans defeat themselves, not the Dems.

Remember nobody gave Fitz a chance in '98.

[nospinzone]

Here's my two cents:

Pennsylvania: If Toomey wins the primary, I'd peg him as a slight favorite to win the seat. He's won election three times to Congress in a district that went for Gore and I believe he could replicate his appeal statewide. Plus Pennsylvania is hardly hostile to Republicans, with 2 GOP senators and 12 out of 19 GOP congressmen.

Nevada: Yes Gibbons is not going to run. No he is not the only Republican in Nevada capable of running. Until we hear from Heller or Krolicki there is no reason to slam the door shut on this race.

South Dakota: Thune may run, he is probably just keeping a low profile to cool the jets after the Johnson race. If he runs we have a race, and he may well win.

Louisiana: Breaux seems to be leaning toward retirement, but until he makes it offical this seat stays Dem. If he does retire this seat will be in play but will be the most difficult of the southern seats to capture after NC, SC, FL, and GA.

Oklahoma: I sense this will be a close contest. Humphreys will probably be taken across the finish line provided he runs a good campaign and doesn't make too many mistakes.

Alaska: I wonder how much of a pickup this seat actually is. All of the talk about this race has quieted in the past few weeks. Perhaps the anger over the Lisa Murkowski appointment seems to have cooled.

Wisconsin: I still think we will have a race out of this.

Arkansas: Unfortunately, I can't say the same here. A shallow Republican bench killed the chance for a pickup here.

North Dakota: This one's dead in the water, too.

Washington: Nethercutt will give Murray a run for her money and if Bush wins in a landslide, he'll ride in to victory with him.

California: Depends on the candidate. I think we'll get a good race out of this state too.

Illinois: I hope spintreebob is right about this one, because Illinois has turned frighteningly Democrat over the past few years.

[zebrahead]

Just one man's opinion. I don't like the way the state has been trending since Fitzgerald won in 1998 and I don't like Bush's odds in the presidential race. He lost Illinois pretty handily last time (by something like 12%). Hynes is a big time player in Illinois state politics because of his father. He will have the entire state party machine behind him. If somehow Obama or Hull is the nominee we might have a chance. Like I said, I think Jack Ryan, if he is the nominee, would be great. He's an outsider to the state party and that will probably hurt him. Unless he self-finances most of his campaign I think he will have trouble matching Hynes in campaign funds. I just have to be the pessimist on this one.

[CPT Clay]

I think wisconsin will be the georgia suprise in '04.

[SC MOOSE]

Since we are in 2004 now and we have the FEC reports ending the 2003 year, and new predictions on these races? I saw some articles on the IL race and it looks like Ryan will take the Rep nod. Both the Rep and the Dem have the money to spend, the demo states he is willing to spend 40 million of his own money. I would like to see some head to head polls on this race.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Hey, it's been a months. I'm willing to modify my original predictions.

Pennsylvania: If Toomey wins the primary, I'd peg him as a slight favorite to win the seat. He's won election three times to Congress in a district that went for Gore and I believe he could replicate his appeal statewide. Plus Pennsylvania is hardly hostile to Republicans, with 2 GOP senators and 12 out of 19 GOP congressmen.

Still believe it.

Nevada: Yes Gibbons is not going to run. No he is not the only Republican in Nevada capable of running. Until we hear from Heller or Krolicki there is no reason to slam the door shut on this race.

Well, since then Krolicki has taken himself out of the race, leaving it to Heller and Woodcock. Unfortunately the GOP is taking way too long to settle on a candidate and is in serious danger of throwing this winnable race away altogether.

South Dakota: Thune may run, he is probably just keeping a low profile to cool the jets after the Johnson race. If he runs we have a race, and he may well win.

Hallejuah! Thune decided to run after all! If the recent polls are any indication, Daschle is extremely vulnerable.

Louisiana: Breaux seems to be leaning toward retirement, but until he makes it offical this seat stays Dem. If he does retire this seat will be in play but will be the most difficult of the southern seats to capture after NC, SC, FL, and GA.

Breaux did decide to retire, so the seat is in play. Given recent GOP defeats in Louisiana however, winning this seat is far from a sure thing.

Oklahoma: I sense this will be a close contest. Humphreys will probably be taken across the finish line provided he runs a good campaign and doesn't make too many mistakes.

Former Rep. Tom Coburn is weighing a decision to run for the seat. If he does, we keep it no sweat. If he stays out, it'll be a horse race.

Alaska: I wonder how much of a pickup this seat actually is. All of the talk about this race has quieted in the past few weeks. Perhaps the anger over the Lisa Murkowski appointment seems to have cooled.

Indeed, this race has gone awfully quiet. I have no idea which way it's leaning.

Wisconsin: I still think we will have a race out of this.

It's looking more and more like we will. The GOP candidates are raising a lot of money and Feingold is a polarizing figure. If it's close come election day, Bush's coattails could sweep in our nominee.

Arkansas: Unfortunately, I can't say the same here. A shallow Republican bench killed the chance for a pickup here.

Yep, this race is as dead as a doornail.

North Dakota: This one's dead in the water, too.

Still is.

Washington: Nethercutt will give Murray a run for her money and if Bush wins in a landslide, he'll ride in to victory with him.

Nethercutt strikes me as a smart guy. He seems to know what it'll take to win. Like Wisconsin, I think this can be won if it's close and the country breaks Bush's way.

California: Depends on the candidate. I think we'll get a good race out of this state too.

Um...I'm afraid I don't have a lot of confidence in that statement. Senator Boxer is a wolverine. She'll tear any opponent to pieces.

Illinois: I hope spintreebob is right about this one, because Illinois has turned frighteningly Democrat over the past few years.

News on this race have proven to be quite favorable considering this seat seemed ready to slip out of our hands. It seems to be a tossup now anyway, if it's a Jack Ryan/Blair Hull race.

As of now, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Louisiana are very good opportunities for pickups. In addition, South Dakota, Washington and Wisconsin look like good chances to knock off incumbent Dems. Unfortunately, California and Nevada seem to be slipping out of reach.