Update from LS on politics, films, etc

Hi everybody. Normally I'd send a Freepmail but I LOST all your contacts for those of you on my freepmail list. If you want to be on---and this is the first mail I've sent in months---reply below & I'll assemble a new list. I've been posting elsewhere, but I wanted to give you some #s updates as well as personal updates.

*Since Nov. 2024, Republicans nationally have NET added about 1.4 million voters over Ds. Excepting the last 2-3 months, this movement has been almost universal in states we can track. Several big states---including TX, GA, WI, and MI do not register by party, so we can't follow registrations there. But in all the rest---and if you want more details, follow Seth Keshel ("Cap'n K's Corner" on substack or my own Larry Schweikart substack---there are both free and paid subscriptions). I also provide ongoing updates in my www.wildworldofpolitics.com "Today's News," but here are the cliff notes. *FL is a juggernaut, not at R+1.537 MILLION in a state Trump won by 1 point in 2016. I wish we could package about half those Rs and ship them to GA, which remains iffy (will discuss later). *OH is totally safe now, no longer even remotely a swing state. *NC has gone from over D+175,000 just six years ago to R+10,000 today, but Rs have an active voter edge of 17,000. HOWEVER, that said, I think Michael Watley will lose the senate race to pop gov Roy Cooper. Not enough name recognition. *AZ has gained over 224,000 NET new Rs since 2024, for a total lead of around 324,000. At this point, I think Biggs ousts the Hobbit, but we don't have a candidate in the absolutely crucial CD1 right now with the R race between Scheikert (no relation) and Jay Feely, fromer NFL kicker and CBS sports announcer. THIS WILL BE THE MOST EXPENSIVE HOUSE RACE IN THE COUNTRY. Ds absolutely must have this seat or they cannot take the House. We hold it, I think we hold the House. *NV has bounced around, swinging from R+3,000 lead a couple of months ago to D+7,000. Now, much of this---as in PA and IA---has to do with DemoKKKrat primaries. The incumbent R gov in NV, Lombardo, has no real party competition. Basically, NV is now, despite the latest number, trending slightly R. *PA ran solid red in its shifts until last Nov. when DemoKKKrat big city primaries started. The state is still +30,000 better than in 2024, but Seth thinks virtually all of the gains came from Philly in D primaries. The two key Trump flip blue-collar counties he watches are Erie and Northampton, and neither has moved toward Ds at all. Seth thinks (and I agree) that if Ds were to run PA gov Josh Shapiro for pres, they'd have a shot, but they won't because he's a "joooooooooo." *Virtually ALL other states from RI to NM to IA to NH have overall trended with R gains. IA last reporting period had a D net gain, again largely because of the D primary there for the gov seat. *Oregon saw a voter roll purge of 800,000, as did Kollyfornia. This is why the CA races were closer and why one OR poll shows the Rs in a tie for the governorship---and no, I don't think the R will win. But inch by inch.

There are other really, really big factors at work, though, that I think ensure the DemoKKKrat extinction as a national party (with rumps remaining in CA, WA, OR, & northeast): *Homeland Security says it has deported nearly 4 million already and are not shipping them out at a rate of 3,500 per day. That would put the total at around 9-10 million gone by the time Trump leaves office in 2029. Say, Vance is the winner & continues, we could see nearly 20m gone by the end of his first term. FOLKS, THIS TRANSLATES TO ABOUT 7-8 million DemoKKKrat "voters" gone. *Voter roll purges have been brutal to DemoKKKrats. Judicial Watch, which is responsible for these suits, claims 2m are off the rolls with a target of 3m more. Again, overwhelmingly these are DemoKKKrats. I estimate another 1.3 or 1.4 mlilion Ds off the rolls (i.e., dead people). Kollyfornia alone saw over 800,000 removed and that was without LA or San Diego Counties reporting. *Above noted D-R registration shifts are 1.4m. All of that totals to a minimum of 3m DemoKKKrat "voters" removed at worst and close to 4m at best. This is a massive reduction in "voters," and slams the door on fraud. The old "order mail-in ballots for dead people in nursing homes, fill them out, and send them in" is over. *Money. The GOP, with Trump's and Elon Musks's slush funds, has about an 8:1 advantage. Ds LOCALLY are still doing ok, but their national fundraising is kaput.

The other ongoing saga is the Trump two step. First, the administration introduces an exec order or policy; next, some analpimple judge blocks it with a TRO; then the judge is overturned (90% of the time) by a higher court. (BTW, for as bad as he is, John "Can't Carry a" Thune got ALL of Trump's judges confirmed, so that trend above will continue). Look for the postal envelope order to eventually be upheld, essentially sealing off most of the mail in fraud. Even Barrett's decision said all USPS (!!) envelopes must be post marked before election day. That's nearly impossible to do with the Covid-era cheat process.

In my view, those trends alone would prevent them from ever holding national power again. But it gets better: DemoKKKrats now have SIX civil wars under way, and they can't win any one of the six. *Hamas Murder Pirates/Hezbollah v. Jews/Israel *Illegal criminal alien invaders v. inner city residents *Biden legacy (he was just fine v. yes, he was a doddering rheetarded Dementia patient and we knew it) *Green v. AI (data centers and climate change are antithetical positions. We WILL have AI---and yes, we must control it so it does not steal land or drive up energy costs, and yes, it can be done---and we MUST beat the ChiComs on this, so windmills and solar are gonna be dead soon. *War against men. The Ds v Men hasn't abated. If anything, it only took a minor turn with Ds nominating pansymen like Talcumpowder Talarico and Graham Potted Platner. These guys will be unsuccessful (I have Collins holding, Paxton winning easily). They are NO the cohort of former military people and intel people the DemoKKKRats ran in 2006. Like Buttplugs, they can only run homosexuals or hugely compromised white men---but those "men" won't attract middle-of-the-road real men. *Now we have a new civil war over the DemoKKKrat Fascist/Socialists of America v. the "establishment" of Chuck SpewMore and Row Row Row Your Khanna. Either way, we win. If the DFSA wins, voters will reject them big time. If the establishment wins, the nominee will be Cackles a second time.

I've said this before folks: they really, really, REALLY want to run the Amazing Moron Zohran for the presidency, and NO, the Constitution does not matter because DemoKKKrats don't care what it says and it would fall to a heavily RINO-ish GOP or to courts to stop him. I don't think either would. So be prepared. I've already seen headlines touting him as "vice president" under Cackles. NO. He's too arrogant for @2.

All of that would be wonderful for MAGA/GOP as the likely nominee, J.D. Vance, will be Cackles with a pretty solid right now 320 EVs---but it could go as high as340 if they nominate Zohran. Vance in that case would win the popular vote by about 2.5%.

I think all this points to the GOP holding the House at 222, the senate at 52---lose NC, hold TX/ME---but an upset is absolutely possible in either MI or NH. (NH has moved more to the right by about half a point since November 2024, and can't tell on MI cuz they don't register by party.

Once that prediction comes true, the DemoKKKrat Party is officially extinct. It will still run a candidate in 2028, but has no chance. After the new census takes another 8-10 seats from D states in 2031, they're finished forever.

Historically, this isn't unusual. The Federalists were quite similar; the Whigs and Liberty Parties somewhat similar. Fraud failed in 2024, but worked just enough to deny the Rs four more senators in NV, AZ, MI, and WI. We will start to pick those off too.

Anyway, that's my take. My latest book, "American Biographyy," a history of the United States as told through the lives of 94 prominent Americans, all linked together in six degrees of separation, is out.

https://www.amazon.com/American-Biography-History-Ninety-Four-Americans/dp/B0H62ZKDHC/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2T6R49W8S3XFQ&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.3CfxQzXZIxg4ksPwKfphA5T2h6aL2EuMj2aDklgWrip3hBYbsMXNuHIWaa-S3Ukz-VDgjpoOYM0EBUefFIk3m2MraRBDMtlcj0SzVYApEXrVn3DNXke5BMfL5XLzvfZM61Ra-yjP0qEbjNi3hZiqG5yNZOijkCGuDMQTGDLDvTEUk2LgdkTrI89M5VSduK_DqonJTBtuugTKCXvfPJTgnQ8ssxSjTJlR6uBVLYH81ms.yNdlt0-UvCGXqlhH9Ettyucm_X3xJsSla5FzfKz1hfo&dib_tag=se&keywords=american+biography+larry+schweikart&qid=1783260523&sprefix=%2Caps%2C237&sr=8-1

"Patriot's History of the United States" is now in its 46th printing and has been approved for a 6th edition, the "25th Anniversary Edition" coming out in 2029. We now have over 600,000 copies in print.

It is probably the last book I'll write, given the market for poor book sales these days (down 8% from four years ago). Instead I'm at Larry Schweikart substack (many columns are free, some are subscription---mostly those with #S and political analysis) and on my www.wildworldofpolitics.com, if you subscribe to my "Insider," you not only get the substack subscription, but you get my podcast video three days a week.

Finally, we are making GOOD progress in our "Torch" video for the Angel Studios cohort, "Patriots: The Pilgrims," which we hope will be the first of a season-long series following one family from Plymouth to the present. We are using all AI, which is 20x cheaper in some cases than live action, and it looks fantastic. We hope to have the Torch ready by October.

Finally, a GREAT movie is "Young Washington." See it in a theater and support Angel. "Pressure," with Brendan Frasier as Dwight Eisenhower, struggling to predict the D-Day weather with Capt. Stagg, is also very good. Believe it or not, "Devil Wears Prada 2" was pretty good as well. Obviously "Project Hail Mary" was fantastic. I didn't bother with "Disclosure Day." Jason Statham's latest, "Shelter" isn't very good---nothing like "Beekeeper."

3 posted on 07/05/2026 7:30:43 AM PDT by MtnClimber (For photos of scenery, wildlife and climbing, click on my screen name for my FR home page.)

4 posted on 07/05/2026 7:34:16 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The quickest and easiest way to untold riches is to be elected to national office.)

11 posted on 07/05/2026 7:57:12 AM PDT by chajin ("There is no other name under heaven given among people by which we must be saved." Acts 4:12)

Mamdani for president?

As much as we debate the nuances of natural born citizenship here on Free Republic, his case would seem to be very clear cut. He was born in Uganda. He only became an American citizen as an adult.

Please add me to your ping list.

Thanks.

And as allendale noted, election fraud cannot be overlooked. It’s accountable for probably 30% of Biden’s “votes”.

14 posted on 07/05/2026 7:59:28 AM PDT by cpforlife.org (Abortion is the Choice of Satan, the father of lies and a MURDERER from the beginning.)

15 posted on 07/05/2026 7:59:40 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too ( * LAAP = Left-wing Activist Agitprop Press (formerly known as the MSM))

Your analysis fails to recognize the power of election fraud.

Yes, I do believe he said AZ was safe in 2020 as there would be little election fraud.

"...Finally, a GREAT movie is "Young Washington." See it in a theater and support Angel..."

I agree, I saw it on the day it came out, we enjoyed it. I thought it was VERY well done.

As an aside, I had a discussion with a freeper who didn't care for it and he thought the battle scenes weren't done well, that it was historically inaccurate and didn't like that at the end of the movie all the troops shouted "Virginia!" instead of "Liberty!" and I had to gently remind him that in 1755, "Liberty" was not even on the menu, they were all loyal British subjects of the King at that time!

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