A View from Israel

Once again, we are sitting on the edge of our seats. Will Trump attack Iran or won’t he? I want to try to share the feelings here in Israel.

On the one hand, most Israelis want a military operation—either by America alone or jointly with Israel—that would result in regime change in Iran. Iran is the proverbial head of the snake. If the Ayatollahs could be replaced with a “normal” regime, it would completely change the face of the Middle East. It would dry up much of the funding, supply lines, and support to Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. It would contribute greatly to bringing peace to the region and would prevent Iran from eventually becoming a threat to Europe, which it will, if it goes nuclear.

Iran is rebuilding its ballistic missile program, which Israel severely damaged in our 12‑Day War with it last year. It has already replenished its stockpile, and it’s estimated that they now have over a thousand missiles. Next year they may have 2,000, and the year after that 3,000. They are also trying to rebuild their nuclear weapons program. The lesson of October 7 for us is that we cannot ignore and allow the military buildup of our neighbors to become too dangerous to us. In Gaza, we let Hamas become a major threat by not paying enough attention to their activities and not reacting in time. So, regarding Iran, it seems better to attack their nuclear program, their missiles, and overthrow the regime now, rather than wait a few years when they may have a nuclear weapon and thousands of missiles that can overcome our air defenses.

On the other hand, we know that if America attacks Iran, Iran will retaliate against us, as they have done in the past. Even though in the 12 Day War our anti‑missile defense intercepted 90% of the incoming missiles, the ones that got through caused a lot of damage. Their missiles were accurate and very destructive. Soroka Hospital in Beersheva took a direct hit, and we have not been able to repair the damage to this very day. The same goes for the Weizmann Institute in Rehovot, an academic center of research and learning. Not to mention the many apartment buildings that took direct hits, causing massive damage to entire neighborhoods and the loss of civilian life. We know the price of a confrontation with Iran, and most Israelis are very worried—and frankly, scared. But again, many feel that the best thing to do would be to take down the regime now and pay the price, rather than confront a stronger and more dangerous Iran in a few years in order to defend ourselves against nuclear attack. The tension here is great.

We are also approaching dangerous crossroads in Gaza and Lebanon. I’ll start with Lebanon. In the war, we pushed Hezbollah back from our border about 20 kilometers. We agreed to a ceasefire on the condition that the Lebanese government would take control of the border area, prevent Hezbollah from returning, and disarm them. The ceasefire was backed and guaranteed by France and the U.S., whose role was to help strengthen the Lebanese government and army. But agreements are one thing and reality is another—especially in the Middle East. Hezbollah is stronger than the Lebanese army, is refusing to disarm, and is trying to return to areas adjacent to the Israeli border. As with Iran, Israel cannot allow Hezbollah to regain the strength and threat level it had on October 6. Things may lead to a military confrontation in the not‑too‑distant future if the Lebanese government and the West cannot get control of the situation.

Gaza is also complicated. Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire—sort of. It was more like Trump announcing that Israel and Hamas had agreed to a ceasefire, and then the parties had no choice but to go along with it rather than upset Trump. The ceasefire was to take place in two stages. In the first stage, Israel was to withdraw its troops and occupy only about 50% of the Gaza Strip (down from over 70%). Hamas was to return all the hostages, living and dead, within 72 hours. Once this happened, the ceasefire would move to the second stage.

In the second stage, Israel would withdraw completely except for a one‑kilometer‑wide buffer zone along its border. Hamas would give up power and turn the Gaza Strip over to a new governing body. They would surrender their weapons. An International Stabilization Force would take military control of Gaza. Israel would open and relinquish control of the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza. Everything that enters Gaza—cars, food, building materials, medicines—goes through the Rafah crossing. But not only those things. It has also been the route for weapons, tunnel‑building supplies, money to fund Hamas, and the movement of terrorists traveling to Iran for training and returning afterward. So control of the Rafah crossing is a big deal for Israel. We do not want to relinquish control if Hamas is still a force in Gaza.

We kept our obligations of stage one. We ended our attack and did our partial withdrawal. But Hamas hasn’t fulfilled their side completely. Hamas is still holding one hostage—the body of Ron Gvilli. They claim they don’t know where his body is. Israeli intelligence believes they do know and are withholding him as a bargaining chip for future concessions. As far as Israel is concerned, Hamas has not met its obligations under stage one of the ceasefire—the return of all our hostages—and therefore we object to moving on to stage two. If we don’t insist Hamas meet its obligation now, we may never get Ron Gvilli back.

The U.S. apparently wants to move on to the second stage of the ceasefire even though Ron Gvilli has not been returned. Trump set up the Board of Peace and other committees to govern Gaza. The problem we have with the committee Trump set up is that representatives of Turkey and Qatar sit on it, and they are supporters and sponsors of Hamas. Turkey, in particular, makes no secret of its hostility toward Israel. Having them on the committee is like having Hamas on the committee.

But most importantly, an International Stabilization Force has not been established. There are not many countries willing to send troops to Gaza to confront Hamas, disarm them, and take control of the territory. As in Lebanon, where the Lebanese government is no match for Hezbollah, Israel doubts that there will be an international force strong enough—or willing enough—to take on Hamas.

Despite Trump’s pressure, Israel does not want to relinquish control of the Rafah crossing and will not agree to withdraw to its border until Hamas is eliminated politically and militarily. Today, it seems doubtful that will happen. In the meantime, Trump wants to move forward and may read us the riot act, forcing us to keep our end of the agreement while Hamas does not keep theirs. In the end, everything may go back to the way it was before October 6. Hamas will still be in power. They will rebuild their military strength. They will begin launching attacks against Israel. (They have already replenished their ranks to 20–30,000 fighters, which is what they had before October 7.) Israel does not want to move onto stage two while Hamas is not committed to fulfilling their obligations – return of Ron Gvilli, disarmament, and relinquishing control of Gaza.

As I wrote above, for Israelis the lesson of October 7 is not to let our enemies gain strength to the point that they threaten not only our security but the very existence of our country. We feel we are moving in the direction where we will have to act and “mow the lawn” before the terrorist armies around us become too strong again.

What I am trying to say is that even after the ceasefires that were signed, it is beginning to look like not much has changed. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are becoming the threats they were before October 7, and the international community is not effective, so far, in stopping this. It will leave Israel with no choice but to act. We came very close to annihilation on October 7. Our enemies did not take full advantage of their strengths and they made a few mistakes. That is what saved us—their mistakes. We cannot return to that situation again.

That is why we think regime change in Iran is crucial to preventing the Middle East from being continuously at war. As long as Iran keeps funding, arming, and training Hamas and Hezbollah, the hostilities will continue. Their terrorist armies are simply too strong, even for the Western world. Do I think Trump will take down the regime in Iran? Personally, I don’t think so. That would probably mean a protracted war in the Middle East that Americans—and Trump—have no motivation for. I think the worst outcome for us would be an American attack on Iran that falls short of regime change and results in a rain of missiles falling on Israel without any decisive outcome. That would accomplish little except endless rounds of retaliation that lead nowhere except continued hostilities.

Whatever happens will happen—or not happen—in the next 7–10 days. Like most Israelis, I’m not really sure what I’m hoping for.

As always, feel free to share this letter with whomever you want. Comments and questions are of course welcome.

Also, important for me to say, that despite the ominous tone of this mail, we are all fine and doing well. We trust our military and our defenses and have confidence that everything will be fine at the end of the day. We can handle anything that happens.

Message from Jim Robinson:

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It’s a good letter, and I think that it reflects the reality over there at the present time. It is a tiny bit outdated, as Ron Gvilli’s body was recovered about 2 days ago - may he finally rest in peace, and may his family finally know the peace of certainty.

Before I state the rest of my thoughts, I wanted out there in plain and simple language: I know that I am sitting 5000 miles away in the cheap seats, and even though I have some family living in Israel, my immediate family is safe here in the US. I appreciate that because of that fact, my opinions carry very little weight. Nonetheless, here they are:

There is no doubt that Israel was taken by surprise on October 7, just like they were 50 years earlier during the Yom Kippur War. I think in both cases that there were signs of an attack that some people were warning about, but those people either weren’t taken seriously, or a policy decision was made to just see what happened. Either way, in both instances Israel paid dearly for letting themselves be attacked. The writer of this email correctly noted that when Israel allows its enemies to get too strong, then not only is conflict guaranteed, but the outcome is decidedly worse for both is Israeli civilians and members of the IDF. It is my considered opinion that while the Iranian regime has been rocked back on its heels, while Hezbollah has been severely degraded, and while Hamas was also severely degraded and revealed to the world for what it really is (not merely a terrorist group, but an unusually sadistic one, at that), Israel must definitely take advantage of its position of strength and continue to “mow the lawn“ periodically. If it fails to do so, no matter how that looks to the rest of the world (not a single one of which would tolerate repeated a tax across its border as Israel has been pretty much forced to do for decades), then Israel is going to suffer a truly harmful combination attack by several or all of its enemies simultaneously. The writer was also correct that October 7 could have been much worse, and the only reason it wasn’t was because it’s enemies did not coordinate with each other. Had Hezbollah also attacked in force on October 7, Israel might have lost 10,000 or more dead, and there would have been very severe damage all across Israel. The government of Israel, regardless of who heads that government, must never allow that to happen again. If they have to go about these things without US assistance, then so be it - that’s part of what being a sovereign country is all about.

To be honest, since Hamas has completely failed to live up to its obligations under the cease-fire agreement, and now that Israel finally has Ron Gvilli’s body back, they should give Hamas a deadline of no more than about two weeks in which to fully comply with the terms of the truce, and if Hamas refuses to do (which is highly likely), than Israel needs to go in and utterly destroy Hamas. No mercy, no prisoners, just destroy them to the last man. Israel also needs to put some of its military and economic strength to work on the diplomatic front by persuading a variety of Moslem nations to accept any of the Arabs from Gaza who wish to leave that godforsaken place. It is time to stop allowing Gaza to continue to be a haven for sick, sadistic terrorists to hide, build up their arms and train - and, yes, that means Israel needs to reoccupy the entire place and annex it. Let that serve as a warning to Israel’s enemies that there are some truly monumental consequences for murdering , kidnapping and torturing large numbers of innocent civilians. Israel needs to make it clear that it is not only not going anywhere, but that it is a strong and potentially expansionist power. Maybe, if that realization ever dawns on the majority of the Arab world, the conflicts will come to an end and Israel will no longer need to be aggressive about defending itself. Israel has wanted nothing more since before it declared independence than to simply live in peace among its neighbors. Israel now has the opportunity to use its strength to ensure that that is the case, and it should use that strength.

A brief recap of our intervention in the Middle East:

1. The Shah a benevolent dictator and partner with the US had the rug pulled out from under him by Jimmy Carter an thus birthed the hideous snake which it the Therocracy of the Mullahs. Thus began almost 50 years of terror by Iran. Jimmy Carter was a democrat and naive.

2. Iran perceived us as weak and captured our embassy and took personnel hostage. It was not students but by direction of the Mullahs of the government. All the way to the top. Jimmy Carter caused this fiasco and failed rescue attempt. Reagan was elected and the Iranians feared they would be attacked and or nuked unless they gave the hostages up. Oddly, they were correct. We had our hostages back immediately. At the same time Iraq attacked Iran and backed by the USA. Saddam was our Allie, then.

3. Then Bush Senior, and a necessary war with Iraq which we won easily. Saddam wanted the oilfields in Kuwait and probably Saudi. Bush Senior totally screwed up the peace. By then Saddam was “Our Bitch’ but insanely we tried to democratize Iraq which was a failure and resulted in destabilizing Iraq. and a second war with Iraq post 9/11 and war in Afghanistan which is on Bush Junior. We needed to go to war in Afghanistan to kill Osama which we did not do. But we inherited the Afghanistan mess which rapidly descended into chaos, death and terror. This is on the Republicans.

4. Then came Obama and Hillary Clinton. The Arab Spring happened and Hillary set the whole damn Middle East and Northern Africa on fire and it still smoulders today, ready to ignite again in death and horror. The democrats own this one.

Sometimes war is necessary for national survival and influence. When one goes to war the reasons must be overwhelming. A plan post victory must be rational and achievable.

If you are not willing to kill your enemy and all that stand with him surrender. He has already defeated you. You must “Cry Havoc and Let Slip the Dogs of War,” least you will lose. “War is serious business not to be considered lightly, as it can get out of hand!”

PS
I am not a fan of Colin Powell due to his politics. However, his most profound statement about war is as follows: “IF YOU BREAK IT, YOU OWN IT.” The actions of the Democrats and in particular Hillary Clinton and Obama broke the Middle East and North Africa and also Bush Senior and Junior. Now we own this horrible mess of death and destruction. As mentioned above, “War is serious business not to be considered lightly, it can get out of hand!”

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