Posted on 11/21/2025 4:29:13 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
In short, the draft is widely seen in Kyiv and Europe as a forced settlement that rewards Russian aggression and permanently weakens Ukraine, while Zelensky walks a tightrope: dependent on U.S. support, battered domestically, and unwilling to accept the proposed concessions without major changes and real security guarantees. A final deal remains distant.
A leaked 28-point U.S.-drafted peace plan, negotiated directly between Washington and Moscow without Ukrainian or European involvement, has caused alarm in Kyiv and European capitals. Key elements of the proposal include:
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The leaders of Germany, France and Britain have stressed that the Ukrainian military must remain capable of defending the country's sovereignty. In a joint phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky, they assured Ukraine of their continued and full support on the path to a lasting and just peace. A new U.S.-backed plan to end Russia's war on Ukraine would require significant military concessions from Kyiv that experts say would leave Ukraine unable to defend itself against further Russian aggression.
The plan was drawn up by U.S. and Russian officials with no apparent input from Kyiv. In a matter of seconds, Russian strikes tore through this residential district in Ukraine's southeastern city of Zaporizhia. Over a single day, Russian forces carried out nearly 400 attacks across the region, hitting 16 such settlements.
Several people were killed and scores of Ukrainians left without a roof over their heads, just as winter sets in. As Ukrainians face daily bombardments, negotiations far from the front line are circling a possible peace deal. In Kyiv, U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll met President Volodymyr Zelensky to brief him on a 28-point peace plan, reportedly hammered out with Moscow, behind closed doors, without Ukraine in the room.
When we, the Army, look and see how well you guys have done, it's remarkable. Thank you so much. We try our best with your support.
We are thankful to President Trump. Zelensky wants to negotiate further, insisting any talks must involve European leaders and must keep Ukraine at the table. I expect to speak with President Trump in the coming days.
We are aware that America's strength and support can bring peace closer in reality, and we do not want to lose that. But we also understand that Russia has no real desire for peace. Otherwise, they would not have started this war.
Nearly four years after Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion, Russian forces now hold large parts of eastern Ukraine, including most of the Donbass region around Donetsk and Luhansk. The U.S.-backed draft peace plan would lock in much of that control. It would require Ukraine to formally cede the Donbass to Russia, keep Ukraine out of NATO with Allied fighter jets instead, based in Poland, to protect Ukrainian airspace, and cap Ukrainian armed forces at 600,000 troops, in exchange for security guarantees and sanctions relief for Russia.
In Europe, many fear the draft could leave Ukraine, negotiating from a position of weakness. I still consider it to be a list of issues that urgently need to be discussed between Ukraine and Russia, not a final plan. It will be Ukraine that has to decide what compromises to make, just as Russia has to make such decisions on its part.
EU leaders say a workable peace plan needs buy-in from both Ukraine and Europe. Zelensky, meanwhile, has been careful not to publicly reject the proposal, cautious of straining ties with Washington. But with none of the key players on the same page, a deal to end the war still appears distant.
I think there could be three reasons for that. One, Zelensky is still hoping to renegotiate that peace plan, so he's going to talk to Donald Trump personally and persuade him to change it. He's also going to get support from Ukraine's European partners, also from Germany.
And we should remember that the Coalition of the Willing, so-called Coalition of the Willing, so countries that are ready to do more for Ukraine and support Ukraine strongly, they have their own peace plan. And Ukraine would like to discuss that plan with Donald Trump. It is not quite clear, as we speak, if that could succeed.
The second reason is, of course, Ukraine is very much dependent on the U.S. military help, so it cannot allow any strong language. And the third reason is, I think, his past experience of President Zelensky already knows that criticism, public criticism of Donald Trump is not a good way to talk to him. What are the chances, Roman, that Ukraine will accept the kinds of concessions that the plan calls for? Well, it is difficult to predict anything at the moment, but I don't think Ukraine is ready for major concessions.
For example, Ukraine, it's a red line for Zelensky and for Ukraine to just hand over territories that are under Kiev's control. So where Russia wants to have those territories, especially in the Donetsk region, which is the biggest chunk of that part of Ukraine that Russia wants to have. So I don't think Ukraine is ready to go anywhere near a concession there.
On the other hand, a lot will depend on the security guarantees for Ukraine. It's a key issue for Kiev. And what we've seen in that plan so far has been very vague.
It is not clear what will happen if Russia attacks again. So I could assume that if there are really strong security guarantees, and there are some options on that part, that Ukraine might do some concessions. But at the moment, it doesn't look like that.
The U.S. proposal, let's be honest about it, it echoes many of Moscow's maximalist demands. You mentioned territorial concessions already. It essentially strips Ukraine of its sovereignty.
It was developed without any input from Ukraine or Europe. Why would the U.S. think that approach would be acceptable? We don't know. We can only speculate.
It looks like it could be that Russian President Vladimir Putin has promised something to Donald Trump, maybe some business opportunities. We see some hints on that in that peace plan about business opportunities for the United States in Ukraine and with Russia as well. Russia can, of course, offer much more than Ukraine can.
And we should not forget Russia is at the moment winning on the battlefield. And that might be an issue as well. So Vladimir Putin could have said to Donald Trump or his representatives, look, we are winning.
We are going to win. We are pushing forward. Ukraine is weak and getting weaker, weaker every day, every week.
You are not ready to support Ukraine more. So you can either accept this deal or wait, and then you will have to accept it three or four months later. I think this could be the calculation.
What does this plan mean for President Zelensky personally? He's under tremendous pressure now, isn't he? Indeed, he's probably under the strongest pressure since the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. So he's under pressure because his army is losing territory. The Ukrainian army is lacking personnel.
It's not much about the weapons, but it's about personnel. This is the reason why Russia is advancing in the east, but not also there, also in the south, which is very dangerous for Ukraine, because it looks like they don't have enough structures of concrete and metal and minefields. Things like that to stop the Russian advance in the south, in the region of Zaporizhia.
On the other hand, he's, as you've mentioned, under pressure domestically, politically, because of that corruption scandal. And of course, pressure is growing also from the outside because of that scandal. So Zelensky is in a very dire situation.
But on the other hand, I do not see that his position might be catastrophic. So I think that he still might find a way out of this. He's under pressure to hold elections, which is one of the points of that plan, one of the issues.
And for that to happen, Zelensky might... I think he might consider that, but there is a precondition. So Zelensky needs a ceasefire, a longer ceasefire. And he needs to be sure that Russia will not use that ceasefire to advance.
So some options he has, but as you've said, he's in a very, very difficult situation under enormous pressure. Roman, thank you very much. That was Roman Goncharenko from DW's Russia, Ukraine and Eastern European Department.
Well, the plan is asking for major concessions from Ukraine. But so far, at least, Zelensky appears reluctant to criticise or reject it. DW's Kyiv correspondent, Maria Muller, has more.
President Zelensky doesn't want to come across as intransigent. He wants to signal to the Americans he's open for dialogue. He wants to listen to their proposals.
He wants to engage with them on a serious level. Now, apparently, they have moved on to the technical level and working on these proposals. So you really have to read between the lines here, because, of course, people are surprised.
And this morning, Ukrainians woke up thinking, oh, their president will reject these demands and these proposals strongly. But yeah, as you mentioned, I mean, he put out statements saying that he's willing to talk. But nevertheless, he has also reiterated to work on the plan in a way that would bring about a just end to the war, a dignified peace that respected Kyiv's sovereignty.
And also, the Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council also just put out a statement saying, these are Ukraine's unchanging principles. Sovereignty, safety of the people, a just peace. So they still reiterate on these points.
It just really remains to be seen how much of that and what is the interpretation of that, you know, where are the red lines now? Because they've always said, we have clear red lines. And it seems like with this proposal, with this draft, these red lines would be crossed. Do you think that Ukraine will make big concessions then this time or will be forced to, to Russia? Yeah, it's really difficult to say at this point.
I mean, we have to see what comes out of the talks between President Zelensky and President Trump. What is clear that these draft proposals, I mean, that's also what, you know, Ukrainians and the Ukrainian government has been saying, these basically reflect the Kremlin's maximalist demands. And there's nothing the Ukrainian side, but they couldn't say, you know, we have a win out of this draft because they are making all the concessions according to this plan.
It's not the Russians. Lots of Ukrainian concessions. What concessions, if any, has Russia had to make or would Russia have to make in this plan? I know none really at all.
I mean, it would be only on the Ukrainian side, the only security guarantee that, according to a US official who was familiar with this draft, would be that European fighter jets would be stationed in neighbouring Poland in case Ukraine gets attacked again by Russia. They would, you know, respond to a possible attack. This would be like a security guarantee that is modelled on a NATO rule.
So this is basically the only thing that Ukraine has as kind of a security. But of course, Ukrainians say we have, we cannot believe Russia. You know, they have made so many, we have had talks.
They have made promises in the past. They've broken them. Why would we believe them now? What does this mean for President Zelensky personally? He's been under a lot of pressure.
How does he stand, you know, going into these negotiations, do you think? Yeah, that's absolutely right. I mean, he's been dealing for over a week now with this massive scandal, corruption scandal here in the country. People are angry and furious and upset.
It involves a $100 million scheme involving kickbacks and money laundering. Also implicating some of his top officials and one of his former business partners and former friends. So the Ukrainian parliament just dismissed two ministers of his cabinet and they have also, sanctions have been put on several close associates.
So President Zelensky is under a lot of pressure. This US proposal, this draft couldn't have come, you know, at a worse timing. And he is now facing the task basically to restore trust, public trust here among Ukrainians and also having to deal with the Americans and, you know, coming across as open for dialogue.
And we really, you know, have to see what comes out of that. Yeah, really, really, really tough time in the negotiations and in the situation there. Mariel, thanks for that.
Mariel Muller for us in Kyiv. Well, now let's bring in our political correspondent, Matthew Moore. Matthew, Europe was sidelined from these plans.
Have there been any reactions from the German government to this peace plan? Rebecca, it's probably worth just starting with the kind of the on the record response before we get into the background. So far, the foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, is the highest ranking member of the government here to speak out. And he's essentially welcomed this, the initiative in this principle.
But looking at the proposal, he said it was essentially, it was a list of issues that urgently need to be discussed rather than a final plan. And that, he said, he got from Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, with whom he held a phone call. And so there is the sense that this is not anything nearly done, but there's a broad consensus here among political and security officials that this 28-point plan is really a capitulation for Ukraine, particularly concerning for Europeans or really the territorial concessions, which many here, I think, would essentially just embolden Vladimir Putin.
In that respect, there is a broad alarm here, alarm not just at the contents, but also the process that you mentioned, sidelined. Johann Wadephul admitted that none of the Europeans were aware of this, these proposals were in the work. So just, again, it leaves Europe looking very isolated.
The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, was due to speak to US President Donald Trump last night. That call never took place. This morning, Merz has cancelled a public appointment at a school.
And we understand from sources that he is on the phones, making calls to allies, maybe even Vladimir Zelensky. And we also understand that his official is really hoping to rearrange that phone call with Donald Trump. It didn't take place at some point, hopefully in the near future.
And then I suspect we'll have a public statement from Friedrich Merz. All right, Matthew. Thanks for that update.
Matthew Moore in our political studio.
(Transcribed by TurboScribe.ai. Go Unlimited to remove this message.)
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He knows he’s already lost, right?? The problem is...if he signs it...they may call an election...and he is like so out...
He’s waiting for the Russian ‘nyet’.
“$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine”
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia
That’s as likely as the US paying $2 trillion over to Vietnam.
The Russians aren’t going to pay to replace ~60-year-old Communist era Day 1 slum buildings in Kiev-governed Ukraine.
He’s not silent on it.
He just has not said yes or no before the deadline.
He will say yes.
Sarah Palin quit. Zelensky is being told to surrender. Both come out as losers.
“these are Ukraine’s unchanging principles. Sovereignty, safety of the people, a just peace. “
He’ll give up 2 of the 3 because he has no real choice.
Putin has already said nyet.
He’s on the phone with mycushyexile.com
There is no Russian nyet.
The entire draft was crafted by Witkoff and Dmitriev. Dmitriev was acting under the direction of his superiors and certain Witkoff was, too.
The $100B is gone. It will be transferred to the US for US administration rebuilding.
If the EU fails to spend $100B of its own, then the agreement is violated and to pressure them not to fail in this, Trump can threaten to return the Russian assets that would at that point be in a US escrow institution like JPM.
I do not know why people are wandering around saying Russia made no concessions. They are obviously not demanding a pro Russia government in Kiev. They were willing to accept merely an election within 100 days. Huge concession, and they may regret it.
Here is the pressure Trump has. Long range drones into Russia likely require guidance from US AWACS, which have a satellite link. The Brits do not have this.
There is also the matter of Russian troop concentrations in the Donbas (and apparently, soon, Kharkiv) that they will not know about without US satellite recon.
Trump gave him until Thursday. For his own good. Gabbard’s satellites have told him the state of the battlefield.
Since when do losers draft peace plans? I believe it’s the winner that drafts the terms of surrender, no? This plan has all kinds of surrealistic non starters like “Russia will “lease” the territory it conquered and pay Ukraine a fee to occupy it temporarily. Lol! Also Russia forgets about 100 billion dollars the US and Europe stole and they are suppose to agree to have the west formally steal it and hand it over to Haliburtan et al to rebuild Ukraine. Fat chance on that!
Guys, $100B is about 14 months of augmented oil sales when the sanctions are disabled. That doesnt even count gas.
It’s pieces of paper printed by central banks (of which Russia has one). 14 months of infinite Russian oil is not going to stand in the way of this Russian victory.
also Russia forgets about 100 billion dollars the US and Europe stole and they are suppose to agree to have the west formally steal it.
There needs to be an IQ test to post on this forum, I swear.
Because his life is at stake. Neocon goons won’t forgive him for accepting the terms.
Trump left out the Biden vlause that would have let him keep all the money he stole...
Sounds more like it was negotiated in Munich in 1938.
He’s packing for Tel Aviv before Azov gets him.
fair bet
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