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The GOP Is Raising Big Bucks for the Mid-Terms, but Is a 100-seat House Gain Really Feasible?
Red State ^ | 08/29/2025 | Adam Turner

Posted on 08/29/2025 12:43:59 PM PDT by DFG

Yesterday, President Trump announced that he and his various campaign groups, including his Super PACs, have raised an unprecedented $1.5 billion dollars for the coming 2026 mid-term elections.

This is all part of his campaign strategy to hold both the U.S. House and Senate. Of course, the former chamber, where the GOP currently has a 220 to 215 edge, is the one that is really in danger of flipping. Remember, this strategy includes: 1) push GOP redistricting; 2) minimize retirements; 3) spend big; 4) take primary challengers off the table; 5) raise gobs more money; 6) ramp up recruiting; and 7) push certain salient issues.

Trump has also set a numerical goal for the GOP in the House – picking up 100 more seats! He believes that the re-redistrictings, plus stopping the use of mail-in ballots, will lead to a yuuuuuge victory.

Thanks to Wikipedia, we have a list of the elections for House seats since 1856. (One normally should be wary of Wikipedia, but this list seems to be correct.) Only twice has one party picked up 100 plus seats – in 1894, when the out-party GOP won because of the Panic of 1893, and in 1932, when the out-party Democrats won because of the Great Depression. (Also, twice, in 1874 and in 1890, the out-party won close to 100 seats because of scandal and economic issues.)

Re-redistrictings are not going to be able to produce a 100-seat gain for the Republicans. And it is impossible to know how a change in mail-in ballot laws – if it could be accomplished – will impact the elections:

How many illegal ballots are cast in every election cycle? No one knows. Liberals assure us that the number is close to zero. But how could we know that? The hallmark of a successful fraud is that it is not discovered. And in most places, little effort is made to detect voter fraud, even when that is possible. Nevertheless, there are a large number of successful prosecutions of illegal voters.

Perhaps we should look at the ‘100-seat pick up’ as Donald Trump making an aspirational goal. Remember, as my old Santorum 2000 colleague Salena Zito has written, we should take Donald Trump “seriously but not literally.”

The President really just wants to hold onto power in the House. And let’s not forget that all the GOP needs to do is to avoid losing three or more seats in the House. That’s it.

So, how is their grand strategy to maintain the majority in the House going?

The re-redistrictings are coming along. Texas has passed its plan, which has shifted five seats toward the Republicans, assuming the GOP gains with Hispanic voters continue. Ohio will happen, too. Also, Florida, Indiana, and Missouri are still strongly considering it. The Democrats are trying in California, but that is far from guaranteed. Assuming all occur, however, the starting point for the elections will leave the Republicans with roughly a 220 to 207 advantage, with 8 toss-ups. There might be other possibilities as well, especially if the Supreme Court revisits Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. So, the re-redistricting is probably going to be a net benefit for Republicans.

There has been no further word on redoing the census, however.

The fundraising part, as mentioned above, is going gangbusters for the GOP. The RNC, in particular, has a yuge edge over the DNC, the latter of which is still paying off Kamala Harris’ debts.

The President and the GOP are also constantly and aggressively moving to embarrass Democrats on the "80/20" issues, which Ed Morrisey at our sister site, Hot Air, calls the “cornering strategy.” The Democrats, because of their hatred of Trump and their messianic ideology, just can’t stop politically dying on these unpopular hills. Most recently, the Trump administration has made news with its popular crime-fighting actions, especially the federal takeover of Washington, D.C., which is lowering crime. Also, by threatening federal funding when Democrats promote "trans issues," as recently happened in Virginia. The administration is also still trying to deport the gang-banging, illegal alien criminal "Maryland Man," now to Uganda, and presumably will try again to remove the terror-supporting, crazed Arab antisemitic to somewhere else, soon. Then, there are the administration's high-profile efforts to combat antisemitism on college campuses and elsewhere.

And in a "member berry" to the 1988 George H. W. Bush campaign, President Trump signed an executive order on flag burning, which, contrary to the conventional wisdom, is not unconstitutional or illegal.

Oh, how well I remember that 1988 presidential campaign, the first national campaign I followed in any great depth. The Democrats were still complaining about the Bush campaign and its "despicable" use of ‘wedge issues’ like flag burning all the way into the 00s.

And there are other factors of importance to consider:

Donald Trump’s approval rating is pretty much hovering where it has been during the second term, now at 45.3 percent approval to 51.5 percent disapproval, with the same mix of good and bad polls in the RCP.

The economy still seems to be growing – “The Gross National Product has just been revised upward… and it’s a robust number.”

The realignment is proceeding at pace, and on the whole, things look better for the GOP than the Democrats. For example, as the New York Times ruefully reports, “(o)f the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot. That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from.”

The House is evenly divided, and has a boom or bust cycle, and the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties in the House. The Democrats won 41 seats in the House in 2018, then lost 14 and 9 seats in successive elections in 2020 and 2022, losing control during the latter year, only to pick up two seats in the 2024 elections (after endless, and almost surely tainted, counting in California). So, in the grand scheme of things, the GOP is not in big danger in 2026.

We know that both parties understand that control of the U.S. House is up for grabs in 2026. We know this because both are thinking outside the box – see the possible mid-term conventions being floated – and preparing for a tough and long campaign.

"We'll (Just Have to) See What Happens."


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: elections; fundraising; gop; house

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1 posted on 08/29/2025 12:43:59 PM PDT by DFG
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To: DFG

When the Ds are no longer able to cheat with voting machines, illegal aliens and mail in ballots they will not get more than 40% of the vote, give or take.


2 posted on 08/29/2025 12:46:39 PM PDT by reasonisfaith
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To: DFG

Dream on. The GOP are experts in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.


3 posted on 08/29/2025 12:48:35 PM PDT by Huskrrrr (Alinsky, you magnificent Bastard, I read your book!)
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To: DFG

It’s possible but that still won’t give us enough votes to repeal obamacare.


4 posted on 08/29/2025 12:52:08 PM PDT by fruser1
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To: Huskrrrr

If we hold the House in 2026 by one seat that would be an impressive accomplishment.


5 posted on 08/29/2025 12:55:02 PM PDT by cgbg (It was not us. It was them--all along.)
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To: DFG

100 plus seats is delusional.

But, I like the fact that some people are thinking big and trying to find ways to hurt a potential democrat comeback.


6 posted on 08/29/2025 12:56:50 PM PDT by unclebankster (Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel. )
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To: DFG

Just what has the GOP done to deserve any seats? All I see out of them is obstruction and cowardice. At least the Dems whine, pit fits and make a noise like they are doing something. I guess anything is possible when the alternative is completely unacceptable.


7 posted on 08/29/2025 12:58:16 PM PDT by BigFreakinToad (All she is, is cackles in the wind.)
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To: DFG

Money is good to have but 2024 taught everyone that it has its limits. Develop a good ground game now, not next year. Recruit good candidates that have a realistic chance of winning. Don’t let the Dems screw with the GOP primaries. If a GOP candidate has skeletons in the closet, get them out in the primaries.


8 posted on 08/29/2025 1:03:56 PM PDT by Opinionated Blowhard (When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.)
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To: DFG

Newt Gingrich said we would pick up 10 or more. He’s got good instincts. I agree.


9 posted on 08/29/2025 1:10:11 PM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: Huskrrrr
The Dems are screwed.
Their main sources of free money like USAID plus other recycled US tax payer dollars through ActBlue are gone.
Plus Trump is going to send ICE to voting areas in deep blue areas during the next elections to take care of illegal alien voters.
10 posted on 08/29/2025 1:11:34 PM PDT by SmokingJoe (Nope.)
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To: BigFreakinToad

Just what has the GOP done to deserve any seats?

*********************

“Not Much.”

I’ve been saying this since 1989 when I turned 18 & registered as a Republican.

I’ll still be saying it until I’m on my death bed.

“Not Much.”


11 posted on 08/29/2025 1:12:07 PM PDT by unclebankster (Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel. )
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To: SmokingJoe

The Dems are far from screwed, especially if our side doesn’t turn out to vote.


12 posted on 08/29/2025 1:12:30 PM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: dfwgator

They are screwed.
They are losing on all fronts.
Can’t see any big issue they are winning on.


13 posted on 08/29/2025 1:23:25 PM PDT by SmokingJoe (Nope.)
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To: DFG

No. Next question.


14 posted on 08/29/2025 1:27:51 PM PDT by Fledermaus ("It turns out all we really needed was a new President!")
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To: DFG

The writer has failed to add Fractal into his equation.
Fractal developed by Jay Valentine and his team finds fraudulent voter registrations in real time. FRACTAL cannot be defeated as it matches voter registration data with real estate data that is very hard to manipulate. Fractal is what enabled us to win all of the swing states. It will destroy rodent plans for packing districts with tens of thousands of ghost voters and kill the rodent plans to cheat.
Let Newscum try to redictrict; Fractal will crush him.


15 posted on 08/29/2025 1:27:52 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Freedom is never free. It must be won rewon and jealously guarded.)
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To: dfwgator

Like 2022. Red wave became Red trickle.


16 posted on 08/29/2025 1:29:29 PM PDT by Fledermaus ("It turns out all we really needed was a new President!")
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To: jmaroneps37

Oh I forgot have a nice weekend Surrender Monkeys so you can figure out how to screech about this which you cannot.


17 posted on 08/29/2025 1:30:32 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Freedom is never free. It must be won rewon and jealously guarded.)
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To: unclebankster
But, I like the fact that some people are thinking big and trying to find ways to hurt a potential democrat comeback.

We have plenty of the black-pilled.

We need more of the red-pilled.

18 posted on 08/29/2025 1:35:40 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Democrats are the Party of racism, anger, hate and violence.)
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To: SmokingJoe

House candidates don’t run on “issues”.


19 posted on 08/29/2025 1:38:19 PM PDT by Jim Noble (Assez de mensonges et de phrases)
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To: dfwgator

The Dems are far from screwed, especially if our side doesn’t turn out to vote.

*********************

That’s why the idea is being floated of a mini convention.

Many voters if not engaged, will simply choose laziness over voting in a midterm election.


20 posted on 08/29/2025 1:38:50 PM PDT by unclebankster (Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel. )
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