Ukraine Weekly Update29th November 2024

The White House has finally confirmed that the US will assist Ukraine with ATACMs launches deep into Russia - according to Sputnik. Indeed, there have been a number of attacks on Kursk using ATACMs this week. So, the Oreshnik warning fell on deaf ears and Russia has already begun to retaliate by destroying stocks of these missiles along with large numbers of NATO personnel (see Russian Missile/Drone Attacks below). Commentators have been speculating about Russia’s response in the event that the ATACMs/Stormshadow attacks continue - which is likely. Will Russia take out the Ukrainian grid, will it deploy another Oreshnik or could it decide to attack the US base in Poland? Whatever the Russians decide they will be concerned to retain the support of allies such as China, India and other BRICS countries. There is no legal constraint on Russia’s use of the IRBMs since Trump pulled out of the deal restricting their us back in 2019. Under the circumstances, there appears to be no legal constraint on Russian attacks into Europe which, some would argue, is de jure and de facto at war with Russia. It is not clear whether NATO’s article 5 has an application here (see below).

It is noticeable that Donald Trump has said nothing publicly about Biden’s decision to escalate. This is strange indeed and will lead to lots of speculation which I am not going to pursue here - but some believe that Donald Trump will act no differently from his predecessor in relation to both conflicts.

Meanwhile, the impotent Europeans are making bellicose noises that recall their imperialist past while the crisis of democracy grows and farmers take to the streets.

Finally, Russian Defence Minister Andrew Belousov, is visiting North Korea - that will set tongues wagging.

Screenshot of social media video showing Russia's Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile system targeting a major defense-related enterprise in Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine. - Sputnik International, 1920, 28.11.2024 Oreshnik hits Dnepro Putin - talking to the press:

Russian President Vladimir Putin - Sputnik International, 1920, 28.11.2024 ‘Russia has a stockpile of ready to use systems like the Oreshnik’, Putin declared, ‘they will guarantee Russia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.’ He added:

[We] will continue these tests, including in combat conditions, depending on the situation and the nature of the security threats that are created for Russia.

That’s a bit of a teaser from Putin. Now, if the US wants to see more of what the ‘Hazelnut’ can do they should keep launching long range ATACMs into Russia.1 Putin also explained that the Oreshnik was not developed out of old Soviet technology but represents something new and innovative. Colonel Jacques Baud has compared it with the US possession of the Atom bomb at the end of WW2 in the sense that it is a massive development which is streets ahead of anything the West has (though China posses similar technology). It should be noted that the Oreshnik could hit virtually any city in the US if launched from eastern Russia. It is impossible to stop and carries a destructive force equivalent to a nuclear bomb. Furthermore, it is precise and limits the field of destruction to those areas the Russians want to eliminate: the antithesis of US/NATO/Israeli carpet bombing.

Deputy Foreign Minister, Ryabkov advised that there are no international agreements that would restrict Russia’s use of the Oreshniks. According to the Two Majors:

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) was signed between the USSR and the United States in 1987. It did not allow the deployment of missile launchers, ground-based ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 km. In 2019, the United States withdrew from this agreement at the initiative of Donald Trump.

Ryabkov reminded everyone that the US and Trump, especially, bears the responsibility for this situation.

Oreshnik is fantasy, I tell you - just like the Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus or Victory. Following the Oreshnik attack, many embassies were closed in Kiev, fearful of a Russian strike. The Ukraine parliament is being closed for the same reason and will not open until December - according to Sputnik. Zelensky was disappointed that there was no strong reaction to the Oreshnik and demanded that ‘the world must respond’, otherwise Putin will be given a message that such behaviour is acceptable.

Russia must be forced into real peace2, which can only be achieved through strength, otherwise, there will be endless Russian strikes, threats, and destabilization – not just against Ukraine.

It just gets so boring and repetitive: maybe a new script writer would help. It’s the post-Munich narrative all over again: ‘We should have nipped old Adolf in the bud before he conquered Europe: appeasement can never work’.

Putin has similar Hitlerian ambitions, according to the narrative - and the only thing he will respond to is brute force. But attempts to persuade people with various threats - e.g. ‘North Korean Troops are in Kursk; 100,000 more are on their way - or - ‘The Houthis are coming’ - or - ‘Putin drinks human blood from a wineglass’3 may not work anymore - hopefully. Maybe more people will begin to see through it - hopefully.

Unless he is permanently off his face, surely the once great Z must know that the IRBM strike was a response to the ATACMs and Stormshadows so he will know how to avoid future strikes. Mykhailo Podolyak has refused to believe that the Oreshnik actually exists outside of the minds of Russian propagandists - as you can read here.

How dangerous this war is is shown to us by the latest escalation: Putin used medium-range missiles to strike at Ukrainian territory. A frightening escalation.

He reaffirmed that he will not supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine for fear of WW3.

Redzikowo US Base in Poland - Tempting! In response to the Oreshnik attack, Polish Defence Minister, Mariusz Błaszczak, will be having talks with NATO about ‘expanding the scope of application’ of the US base at Redzikowo. The base is devoted to the detection, tracking and interception of ballistic missiles - which makes it a prime target for the Russians though Błaszczak appears oblivious to this. According to one report, it is not clear whether operations at the base are conducted by NATO personnel. The Poles have very little by way of defence against medium and long range ballistic missiles in the area. Maria Zakharova hinted that this site could be targeted, which appeared a little far fetched but then Gilbert Doctorow suggested that it is a possible target in a recent talk with Nima. It is definitely a possibility.

But would it break NATO’s Article 5? While the lawyers are figuring it out, things will happen on the ground and if there is any sanity left in the Biden Administration it will realise that the West cannot win this time. It may even be possible for the US political system, rancid as it is, to ease Biden’s foot off the gas or render the current Democrat regime impotent. However, it will be difficult to secure this outcome before the Republican dominated Congress takes over on January 3rd. Behind the scenes in the US, a war is being fought out between the Deep State and its opponents. In my view, the outcome is impossible to predict.

Winsor Davies - Welsh Actor "If the British Army was asked to fight [Russia] tonight, it would fight tonight."

Yes, we may fight but our ageing little bulldog, vicious and nasty as he has shown himself to be over the centuries, stands no chance against the Great Russian bear.

Strangling Russian POWs is NOT a red line. French Foreign Minister, Jean-Noel Barrot (pictured), said that France has authorised Ukraine to use its Scalp Missiles to strike targets deep into Russia. There are no ‘red lines’ as far as France is concerned, he suggested. So, its OK for Scalps to be launched at a Nuclear Power Plant, as far as Monsieur Barrot is concerned - what an idiot. Equally, it is perfectly OK for civilians to be targeted - no red line there.

Apparently, the UK and France ‘have not ruled out’ sending troops to Ukraine - which would definitely cross a Russian red line.

This story definitely deserves one of these! Unbelievably, some US officials in the Biden Administration are considering the option of providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine - which were taken from them by the Russians. Such people are completely insane. How does that work, I wonder. Are the Americans going to ask the Russians to give Ukraine its nukes back? Or is it the case that the US has ordained that since the right for Ukrainians to possess nuclear weapons was taken away from them by the Russians, the ‘divine exceptional ones’ are obliged to restore this ‘right’ to Ukraine. This sounds like the attitude of an Empire that has no idea that it is about to fall. You can read more at Zero Hedge.

According to Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s Deputy Permanent Representative speaking at the UN:

We believe we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities in those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities. We warned you about this but you made your choice.

It seems to me that Russia must do something that will halt the West’s escalation because it is not being taken seriously thus far.

I have serious concerns that this escalation is already so tense that some kind of provocation will occur... Therefore, we fundamentally disagreed with the permission for these missiles to be sent deep into [Russian] territory.

A group of anti-Ukrainian saboteurs have been burning down warehouses containing diesel generators and ammunition in Odessa. You can see some footage here.

46 civilians - including 12 children, a new born, a toddler and a wheel chair user, were released from Ukrainian captivity after negotiations. They were to have been used as bargaining chips.

The Christmas Truce 1914 According to this Ukrainian source, a recent poll showed that 78% of Ukrainians want to freeze the war while 64% believed that talks should begin because the country has suffered too many losses. Only 39% want to fight to regain lost territories, including Crimea, while 59% believe this to be unachievable. Many would like to see a ceasefire for Christmas.

Yermak - lurking in the background According to this Ukrainian report, the Trump team has postponed a special meeting with Yermak because Zelensky has continued to launch long range missiles into Kursk.

Former Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who has featured on here several times, has claimed that in 2020 he examined a document while visiting the White House, presumably while no one was looking, stating that Ukraine would inevitably perish in a conflict with the Russians. The document was based on research conducted by US intelligence services and the claim was supported by the military, political analysts and the CIA - according to Kuleba. The West failed to provide Ukraine with sufficient support to win the conflict, he implied - and the US even considered creating a ‘government in exile’ should the Russians prevail.

Kuleba also takes the view that the Ukraine war will escalate under Trump who will not wish the conflict ‘to become his Afghanistan’. I’d be very surprised if Trump continues a war he knows cannot be won - just like Afghanistan where Biden tarried too long. But Kuleba also concedes that Zelensky cannot sign an agreement that gives up territory because this would be in conflict with the constitution and would end his political career (and maybe his life). Some think Kuleba looks like Harry Potter.

nk it is worth remembering - and Maria Zakharova reminds us - that one of the most important issues this conflict raises is the question of language and the right people believe they have to be free to speak their native tongue. I can relate to this because the Welsh half of me is conscious of the way in which our English ‘masters’ punished Welsh speakers in schools with the ‘Welsh Not’.4 This was an effort to eradicate the language. Something similar may have happened here in Scotland with regard to another Gaelic language. But the same thing has been happening in Ukraine over many years as the Zelensky regime began prohibiting, not only the Russian language but the culture that grew up alongside it and the traditions that connected people to the past through the language. Such people were set adrift. Language is part of our heritage and culture, when you steal that, you steal a piece of our selves along with it. You can hear more from Maria at World Pravda.

Overnight, a man was injured by drone attack in the village of Oktyabyrsky (Belgorod). Many other villages were attacked but only one other casualty has been reported. Another man was injured by shelling in Kherson region.

Overnight, 27 drones were destroyed/disabled over Kursk, 4 over Lipetsk, 2 over Belgorod and 1 over Oryol.

Six drones were shot down over Bryansk region overnight. One man was injured by a drone drop in the village of Gruzskoye in Belgorod region where many villages suffered drone attacks and shelling. In the DPR, a young man was killed by a drone attack on his car. Eight drones were also shot down over Kaluga.

24 drones were destroyed/disabled overnight in Rostov Region, four over Byransk Region and 1 over Voronezh. Belgorod suffered drone attacks and shelling overnight which caused some damage. In the village of Shebekino, which has had more than its fair share of attacks, a man was killed by a drone drop.…….

The RFAF launched more than 100 Geranium UAVs at enemy rear facilities overnight, hostile channels reported. There were reports of explosions in Kiev and the region, as well as in Vinnitsa, Cherkassy, Nikolayev, Sumy, Zhitiomir, Zaporozhye and Kirovograd regions.

Governmental/Ministerial buildings in Odessa also came under missile attack overnight. On the outskirts of Chuguev, explosions were reported at a military base. It is thought that NATO personnel were training Ukrainian soldiers at the site.

According to this report, Geraniums were launched towards Kiev. The Odessa ports at Belgorod-Dnester and Ilyichevsk were also attacked overnight. The electric grid in Ternopil (south east of Lviv) was hit causing outages.

During the night, Geraniums were reported operating in Kiev, Zhitomir, Dnepropetrovsk and Khmelnitsky regions. In the evening, the Ukrainian side said that recent attacks by the RFAF had completely destroyed the plant in Drohobych, Lvov region, completely obliterating production facilities.

It is reported that our operational-tactical missile system carried out four missile strikes on storage sites for Hymars and MLRS in the Sumy region. 'Tornado-S' covered the area of the AFU's 21 and 47 Mechanised Brigades' reserve concentrations in the vicinity of the Pisarevka village in Sumy region.

According to Zero Hedge, a total of 188 Shahed and other drones were launched over 17 Oblasts. Air raid alerts lasted 7 hours. According to this report, later on the 27th, a Ukrainian military base was attacked in a suburb of Kharkov - causing much damage to ammunition and fuel: ‘there are many dead.’

….. In the morning, there have been emergency blackouts throughout Ukraine. Strikes are being carried out on many objects, including a gas storage facility in Stryi, Lviv region. Explosions are heard in Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne, Kyiv, Odesa, Zhytomyr. The first Kh-101/555 missiles hit an object in Kaniv, Cherkasy region.

It’s in Russian - but you get the point. According to Slavyangrad, 12 TU-95s and 3 TU-160s took to the air and have launched Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea. Some flew towards Kirovohrad, some hit Odessa while others were directed at Pavlohrad. However, the main group flew towards Zhytomyr. KH-101s flew through Sumy region to Chernigov oblast, according to this report and hit Nikolaev region according to this. The attack lasted 9 hours 37 minutes, according to this report and targeted the electricity grid forcing many outages. Sections of railway have been de-energised.

Ukraine’s Energy Minister, Galushchenko has confirmed that there has been a massive attack on the country’s energy system.

Arrivals were reported in Lvov , Lutsk , Rivne , Khmelnitski , Ternopoi , Ivano-Frankivsk and Vyshgorod . Vyshgorod is home to a Ukrainian hydroelectric power station, and it was presumably the target of the attack.

There are large power sub stations (330 kV) in all of these areas apart from Ternopil where the substations are only 110 kV. You can view a full report of the energy infrastructure attacked at Slavyangrad.

In addition, three HIMARS Launchers were destroyed in Sumy region, according to South Front.

A Russian Army T-90 M Proryv (Breakthrough) tank fires at a training ground in the course of Russia's military operation - Sputnik International, 1920, 24.11.2024 Russian T-90 M Russian Advances in 2024 - Video

These figures are from the Economist. Slavyangrad points out that these are military losses only. 100,000 have been killed and 400,000 injured so badly that they can’t return to the fight.

w/e 15th November 15, 570 Casualties killed and wounded: equipment losses 620 (record high).

The 'North Troops Grouping' reports that there are advances in Novoivanovka and in forest areas near MalayaLoknya, and fierce fighting is taking place at Plekhovo. A large deployment of AFU UAV units was hit by a Tornado-S MLRS missile strike near the village of NikolayevoDaryino.

Fighting continues in Volchansk, where there are battles for every house, and around Liptsy.

The Ruble has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since the SMO began (from 80 - 110) which could be due to sanctions according to this report but Putin has said that this is due to seasonal factors and the price of oil. It is also a consequence of Russia’s reduced trade in the dollar. He is not worried.

Former deputy Minister of Poland, Piotr Kulpa, has claimed that more than half of the money provided to Ukraine has been embezzled. Much of this has gone to Ukrainian officials but US officials have also had their share. He described this taking of money from US and European taxpayers as ‘criminal’ and blames Biden and the Democrats. You can read more at RT.

Calin Georgescu, running as an independent candidate for president, speaks to media after registering his bid in the country's presidential elections, in Bucharest, Romania, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024. - Sputnik International, 1920, 25.11.2024 After the first round of polling, independent, ‘hard right’, ‘pro-Russian’ candidate Calin Georgescu has taken a very narrow lead. You can read more at Sputnik. The second round takes place on December 8th. Dr. Gilbert Doctorow is not convinced that Georgescu is pro-Russian, as he explains here (at the 30 min point). But he is definitely against sending young Romanian men to fight in a war that he believes should end immediately:

I want to state clearly and precisely that the war in Ukraine must stop urgently.

A month ago, The Freedom Party (FPO) won the Austrian Election with 35% of the vote with the Conservatives in second place with 27% of the vote. However, since no other party will form an alliance with the FPO, it is more likely that a ‘coalition of losers’ will form the next government. I doubt that Democracy (i.e. Representative government) was meant to be this undemocratic but the situation in both France and Germany is much the same where the centre parties are trying to cling to power in the face of challenges from ‘ left’ and ‘right’ parties which most people voted for.

Polish farmers protesting against uncontrolled Ukrainian imports in the city of Minsk Mazowiecki, Poland - Sputnik International, 1920, 23.11.2024 Farmers have been out on the streets with their tractors in Germany, France, Poland and the UK. German and French farmers together blocked the Cologne Bridge in Strasbourg, and in Beauvais they distributed New Zealand lamb and Ukrainian chicken, which they took from freight carriers. These cheap products are making it hard for them to make a living. Farmers are blocking French cities and on Monday they will march on Brussels. They are concerned, not only with cheap lamb and chicken but also with the opening of European markets to cheap produce from Latin American countries. This latter involves a deal, between Europe the Latin American trading block known as Mercosur, that will create ‘free trade' zones. This will not benefit European farmers. Apparently, European governments cannot prevent this deal, which has been organised by the EU: such is the state of democracy in Europe. Donald Tusk of Poland has said that he will oppose the deal.

In the UK, 10,000 farmers protested in London against the 20% tax on inherited agricultural land, introduced by Starmer. The Deep State does not want individuals to be in charge of the food supply so is making life difficult for farmers in the hope that they will give up and sell to the likes of Bill Gates. l live in a farming community so I find this especially annoying.

Polish farmers are also out in force and blocking a border crossing with Ukraine. According to Sputnik:

They demand an end to the duty-free import of Ukrainian agricultural products and the rejection of the European Green Deal, which aims for zero emissions by 2050.

Hey - just noticed that net zero has been postponed from 2030 until 2050, by which time, according to Greta - we will have already fried.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zelensky-finally-breaks-willing-to

Worth watching, A Ukrainian energy official explains the extent of the damage to their electricity grid….and much more.

Sometimes when on the path to war, it’s almost as if you know where this is going, you don’t really need to go that way, but it’s like you have these forces in the background that are asking for it.

I personally experienced this with Iraq in 2002 when you could already tell we’re going to war. All our arguments for that war panned out to be BS, but in hind sight it’s obvious these were just rationalizations for a forgone conclusion.

I’m not a pacifist by any means. But war should be for a just cause and last resort. This war should have never happened. It is a human tragedy on both sides. So many lives lost, so much pain, so much wealth destroyed, and for what? Because we want to force the issue with NATO East expansion.

So pathetic is the cause of this war, that we attempt to burry this truth with lies, substituting some made up causes like democray, human rights and Ukrainian sovereignty, none of which descibe Ukraine BTW.

This caused a war: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/

Was it worth it?

“The White House has finally confirmed that the US will assist Ukraine with ATACMs launches deep into Russia”

WIKI

The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS /əˈtækəmz/) is a supersonic tactical ballistic missile designed and manufactured by the US defense company Ling-Temco-Vought (LTV), and later Lockheed Martin through acquisitions.

It uses solid propellant and is 13 feet (4.0 m) long and 24 inches (610 mm) in diameter, and the longest-range variants can fly up to 190 miles (300 km)

Unit cost
M39: $820,000 (FY1998) (or ~$1,476,000 FY2022)
M57: ~$1,700,000 (FY2021)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATACMS

Rob Campbell, Pro-Russia, Pro-Hampshire, Anti-Israel

Rob Campbell, Pro-Russia, Pro-Hamas, Anti-Israel

UKranians are terrorists

Israelis are terrorists

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