One Last Time: Wargaming the Senate 2024 Race

With a little over a week to go, there is one major federal issue I have not recently wargamed: The United States Senate. The Senate is vital to the implementation of any presidential agenda; not only does this upper house have an up-or-down on all legislation, but they are also responsible for the "advise and consent" function for executive branch officials and, perhaps most important of all, federal judges - including Supreme Court justices.

If Donald Trump and JD Vance win this election, which is looking increasingly likely, they'll need a friendly Congress. So, let's take a look at some key Senate races and how the balance of the Senate is liable to turn out. My friend and colleague Jennifer Oliver O'Connell took a look at the Senate races a couple of weeks ago as well:

Let's look at how things stand now, nine days before the election. The RealClearPolitics average compilation of the Senate has the GOP already holding a two-seat lead, 51-49, assuming current polling holds. The toss-up states are Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

This gives the GOP a non-filibuster-proof majority of 52-48. Workable, but more would be better.

Much will depend on turnout, which so far is looking pretty good, and on Donald Trump's coattails. If his coattails are as long and broad as we hope, that could easily drag Ohio, Pennsylvania, and maybe Wisconsin over, which would give the Republicans a 55-seat Senate majority - much more comfortable.

Hang in there, folks. In nine days, we'll have a pretty good idea. And don't overlook the chance to sign up for a VIP account; a Gold-level account gets you access to all of our sister sites in Townhall Media: PJ Media, Twitchy, Hot Air, Bearing Arms, and Townhall.com, and the new Platinum-level gets you access to all of that plus access to a catalog of feature-length films, and a credit to the new Townhall store. Use promo code SAVEAMERICA for a 50% discount. Don't miss out!

The ‘Rats have tried to knock off three GOP incumbents: Ted Cruz of Texas; Rick Scott of Florida; and Deb Fischer of Nebraska.

In the latter race, the ‘Rats didn’t nominate anyone but have gotten behind a labor union leader, Dan Osborn, who is running as an independent. Deb Fischer is somewhat of a RINO and has to be one of the least known of the 100 senators, even though she has been in office 12 years. The ‘Rats have dumped a ton of money into Omaha to try and win the 1 electoral vote there; however western Nebraska runs about 80/20 GOP (Fischer is from Valentine NE in the northwest part of the state) and CD1 which includes Lincoln is probably 60/40 GOP, so hopefully this one won’t be too close.

I think Scott will get re-elected, but who knows what will happen with Ted Cruz. I happen to love the guy, but he is abrasive, has more than a few enemies, and there may be RINOs in Texas out to punish him. His opponent, former football player Collin Allred, appears to be a total zero, but Chucky Schmucky Schumer has dumped more than $100 million into this race.

Looking at the other senate races where the GOP has at least an outside shot, Virginia may be the most intriguing, with the outstanding career Navy officer Hung Cao as the GOP challenger against baby-killing Catholic in name only Tim Kaine. Cao debated Kaine and kicked his hind end; some of this debate went viral. If the military come out and vote for Cao in great numbers, this could be a real shocker, and given VA’s excellent election system (I lived there between 2011 and 2021), we’ll know a great deal about this one by 10 pm EST.

Another race few people are talking about but could produce a shock is New Mexico, where the daughter of six term US Senator Pete Domenici, Nella Domenici, is running against apparatchik ‘Rat two term incumbent Martin Heinrich. I think DJT has an outside shot at winning New Mexico due to the border crisis, and, if he does, Nella might be right on his coattails. People seem to have forgotten that NM used to have razor thin margins, with Gore beating Bush here by a shady 500+ votes in 2000.

Finally, think about Kari Lake. People seem to have forgotten about her and conceded the race to hammer-and-sickle boy congresscritter Ruben Gallego, but she hasn’t gone away. If Trump is pulling away in AZ, then Kari can’t be that far behind.

We might get to 57 senators with a little luck. Then we have the RINO’s RINO, Larry Hogan; could he possibly win against a Muriel Bowser clone in Angela Alsobrooks.

Sadly, it doesn’t look like we can beat two real jerks, Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar and Rhode Island’s Sheldon Whitehouse, who is the ‘Rats house bigot.

57. Why not 70? :)

I’ll be thrilled with 51 or 52.

VA is a lost state full of lost souls.

I do hope Cruz pulls it off, I like him a lot.

Numbers gor all races are getting ridiculous here as they usually do the week before.

As long as everyone votes and gets everyone they know to vote, we have a good chance of winning.

I am more sanguine than the author.

I believe the emerging trend for Trump is so quickly accelerating that he will have more coattails than the averages of the polls would suggest. Moreover, I believe the races in the various states are not nearly as close as these polls would lead us to believe because, as has been noted, outliers of unreliable leftist polls have skewered the averages.

In recent cycles it is apparent that the electorate has been disinclined to split their tickets and I would expect as Trump accelerates to victory in these states that those who vote for him will be very disinclined to split their tickets in favor of a Democrat party that on the whole has been deceitful on behalf of Biden and has been presiding over a wave of inflation.

Therefore, I optimistically believe that the Republican candidates will take Senatorial offices in: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio with a real chance in Nevada.

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