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Pennsylvania General Election, September 2024, Trump 47.5% / Harris 45.3%
www.thetrafalgargroup.org ^ | September 30, 2024 | Staff

Posted on 09/29/2024 6:50:18 PM PDT by Red Badger

Conducted 09/26/24 - 09/29/24

• 1090 Respondents

• Likely 2024 General Election Voters

• Response Rate: 3.89%

• Margin of Error: 2.9%

• Confidence: 95%

• Response Distribution: 50%

• Methodology: TheTrafalgarGroup.org/Polling-Methodology


TOPICS: Government; Military/Veterans; Politics
KEYWORDS:
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1 posted on 09/29/2024 6:50:18 PM PDT by Red Badger
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To: Red Badger

Anything less than 5% can be cheated.


2 posted on 09/29/2024 6:53:02 PM PDT by Mr. Blond
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To: Red Badger

Way too close for comfort.


3 posted on 09/29/2024 6:55:04 PM PDT by VTenigma (Conspiracy theory is the new "spoiler alert")
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To: VTenigma

4.5% ‘undecided’ are either clueless or lying..............


4 posted on 09/29/2024 6:57:11 PM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Mr. Blond

I suspect the 4.5% are lying....................


5 posted on 09/29/2024 6:58:10 PM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Red Badger

Im hoping a good portion of the 4.5 percent undecided are actually closet Trumpers that dont want to say as much to the pollsters


6 posted on 09/29/2024 7:08:42 PM PDT by suasponte137
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To: All

The western North Carolina flooding could depress red turnout. This would be bad. The RNC will have to be aggressive about elevating turnout there.


7 posted on 09/29/2024 7:14:09 PM PDT by Owen
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To: Red Badger

I don’t want to get ahead of myself but PA is looking like Ohio 2016 but they are much more willing to cheat these days. Crazy that GA, AZ and NC are looking less friendly. If the GOPe actually went to bat for Trump I thibk GA and AZ would be easy wins.


8 posted on 09/29/2024 7:19:11 PM PDT by wiseprince (Me)
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To: Owen

They’ve lost everything. Voting maybe isn’t their top priority.


9 posted on 09/29/2024 7:20:09 PM PDT by nbenyo
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To: Red Badger

“within the margin of error” means there’s plenty of room for the Dems to gin up those post-midnight votes in Philly.


10 posted on 09/29/2024 7:24:27 PM PDT by simpson96
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To: Red Badger

Trafalgar underestimated Democrats by 3 points in 2022. So itsy be a tie


11 posted on 09/29/2024 7:25:36 PM PDT by nbenyo
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To: Red Badger

Yeah, there’s not 4.5% of any electorate that’s undecided at this point. The choices are diametrically opposed and couldn’t be more clear.


12 posted on 09/29/2024 7:25:56 PM PDT by Nathan _in_Arkansas (Hoist the black flag and begin slitting throats. )
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To: nbenyo

Trafalgar underestimated Democrats by 3 points in 2022. So it may be a tie


13 posted on 09/29/2024 7:27:04 PM PDT by nbenyo
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To: nbenyo

“Trafalgar underestimated Democrats by 3 points in 2022. So itsy be a tie”

Yeah, but they were one of the best in 2020 battlefield states.


14 posted on 09/29/2024 7:37:21 PM PDT by willk (Local news media. Just as big an enemy to this country as national media)
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To: wiseprince
Crazy that GA, AZ and NC are looking less friendly.

According to whom? Trump is leading in average polls in those states, but actually behind in poll averages in PA, Trafalgar notwithstanding.

15 posted on 09/29/2024 7:44:31 PM PDT by nwrep
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To: willk
Yeah, but they were one of the best in 2020 battlefield states.

Battleground. But may be a prescient Freudian slip.

16 posted on 09/29/2024 7:45:39 PM PDT by nwrep
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To: nbenyo
They’ve lost everything. Voting maybe isn’t their top priority.

They still have their country and freedoms, but if they don't vote, they'll "lose everything".

17 posted on 09/29/2024 7:55:53 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: Nathan _in_Arkansas

I disagree, I think there are enough undecided voters, who don’t care for either candidate, to swing the election. At least 5‰. I know others switching back and forth every week depending on the news cycle.


18 posted on 09/29/2024 8:07:16 PM PDT by nbenyo
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To: FreeReign

Trump should announce that 100% of campaign donations from Monday until Friday will go to hurricane relief in affected areas.

Challenge Hairass to do the same thing

It would win him the election


19 posted on 09/29/2024 8:10:59 PM PDT by Fai Mao (The US government is run by pedophiles and Perverts for pedophiles and perverts.)
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To: wiseprince

>>If the GOPe actually went to bat for Trump I thibk GA and AZ would be easy wins.>>

There is a fairly big deal in pretty much all the polling I have seen, and the turnout models examined.

There is generally no departure of GOP support below about 93% and essentially the same numbers for the Dems. The GOPe have NEVER been more than 1-3% of the vote. I think this remains a source of total astonishment for them. Dem registrants voting GOP are also about 7%.

The media announcements of GOP Harris support is just numerically inconsequential. This is crushing to their spirit, make no mistake. The reverse on the Dem side, the same.

And an interesting item . . . this has always been about the ratio in elections. There is nothing new this year.


20 posted on 09/29/2024 8:14:51 PM PDT by Owen
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