Posted on 07/03/2024 8:37:11 PM PDT by dangus
I created two maps to show who polls are indicating are winning. This is not so much a prediction as it is an extrapolation from currently available data. What I mean by that is that a lot of states don't have the sort of multiple polls published since the debates. So let's say I have only one poll from Wisconsin, showing Trump up by a few. But I find that credible because several polls have shown Wisconsin close before the debate, and Wisconsin has been moving in a way similar to Michigan, Minnesota, etc., so I feel comfortable showing Wisconsin going for Trump despite weak and inconsistent polling. But I'm not trying to guess what will happen between the election and now, so I'm not saying Wisconsin WILL go for Trump, only that it currently IS going for Trump.
Here's the first map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/rdneJ
In this map, if a state has been fairly reliably Republican in recent elections, it's deep red. If Trump has been consistently, significantly leading, it's medium red. If Trump has been winning by an amount where the sum of all polling data (adjusted for recent trends) says he's winning beyond mere chance data, it's light red.
I'm deliberately pessimistic in my poll analysis when it comes to blue states. Polls showing where Trump has pulled even or ahead are still blue. Light blue states show where the race was well established to be tight even before the deate. Medium blue states show where at least one poll shows Trump has pulled even since the debates (or, based on pre-debate data, it seems likely he has.) Only dark blue states are where Biden still actually leads.
This second map shows red where Trump is ahead or even, and Blue where Biden is ahead. You can see that at the current state of the election, Trump could actually romp in the electoral college, even while only being a handful of points ahead in the popular vote. This is because Trump is only utterly routing Biden in a few states, not even including mega-Republican states like Texas, but in so many of closer states, it's hard to imagine Biden winning (although see Arizona in 2020). Conversely, Biden could net 5 million surplus votes in California alone, more than Trump's likely margins in Republican mega-states Ohio, Florida and Texas combined.
Still though: isn't that sea of red a beauty to behold?
https://www.270towin.com/maps/yPe92
I like Map #2.
May it be true.
Happy 4th.
Are you factoring in the voter fraud which will likely occur?
I could potentially see it playing out that way with the major exception of Alaska.
No way it goes RAT.
That said, if Biden is the nominee, I expect Trump to sweep the entire Midwest outside of Illinois.
You think Penna, Mich and Maine are almost unwinnable? Trump has won all 9 of the recent Mich polls, and 7 of the last 8 Penn polls, all before the debates. I take it you’re just cynically presuming the Dems will steal whatever states they need?
Right. Easier to do once they replace Joe Biden with Kamala Harris.
Don’t count your chickens before they’ve hatched.
They will cheat even more than the 2020 Big Steal with millions of illegal ballots from registering illegal aliens. MAGA voting for RFK, Jr. in the Deep Blue states could end the modern Rat Party. It would cause a split which could cost the Rats Congressional seats in this election and the 2026 midterms.
Wisconsin is herd to predict - lot of infighting within the GOP - Conservative voters stay home if there is one little issue they disagree with. The stay on the coach voters were a factor in 2022.
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