I could potentially see it playing out that way with the major exception of Alaska.
No way it goes RAT.
That said, if Biden is the nominee, I expect Trump to sweep the entire Midwest outside of Illinois.
You think Penna, Mich and Maine are almost unwinnable? Trump has won all 9 of the recent Mich polls, and 7 of the last 8 Penn polls, all before the debates. I take it you’re just cynically presuming the Dems will steal whatever states they need?