Posted on 06/10/2024 1:43:12 PM PDT by CFW
Small businesses are citing the highest levels of uncertainty since the COVID-19 pandemic, a concerning economic indicator.
The National Federation of Independent Businesses released the survey of small businesses, which found that small business uncertainty spiked last month.
NFIB keeps an “Uncertainty Index” which spiked 9 percentage points last month, hitting the highest level since November of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic was raging and businesses were shutting down across the country.
“The small business sector is responsible for the production of over 40% of GDP and employment, a crucial portion of the economy,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a statement. “But for 29 consecutive months, small business owners have expressed historically low optimism and their views about future business conditions are at the worst levels seen in 50 years. Small business owners need relief as inflation has not eased much on Main Street.”
(Excerpt) Read more at thecentersquare.com ...
Why would anyone want to own or invest in a business right now with all the ..........................
For us the free COVID cash was a boom. People buying cars from our car lot and parts for their projects from our junk yard.
Then when the money ran out and Biden assumed office it turned in to a bust
Every month we barely scrape by now. The cash we set aside during the boom is long gone. Holding out hope they let trump win.
Small business votes republican so you see why the democrats wouldn’t care.
.37 is usually just usually 1-2 months earlier than .50.
Manufacturing is in deep recession.
“Every month we barely scrape by now. The cash we set aside during the boom is long gone. Holding out hope they let trump win.”
That’s what every small business is suffering from right now.
BTW, I watched a video today from a used car dealer as he walked through a car auction law. The cars hitting the auction block right now, are those repo’d from “buy here-pay here” lots. Those are car lots with 20 to 25% interest rates and the cars are pretty much junk since the owner took little care of the vehicles. Cracked windows, peeling paint, dents, broken tail lights, etc.
He said those types of lots are seeing more buyers because with inflation people are behind on their bills and their credit rating is taking a hit. That, combined with tighter bank lending, is forcing consumers to buy at high interest rate dealers. Then, they can’t make the payments so off to repo the cars go.
It’s a spiraling cycle. The former middle-class consumer is moving to the lower-class rung and having to do without things they normally took for granted. Extra-curricular activities for children are being cut, vacations are off the calendar, and parents are having to learn to cook since restaurant prices are so high. Middle class consumers who in the past traded in their vehicle every five years are now hanging on to them. Therefore, new cars aren’t moving of the dealer’s lots and those used trade-in vehicles aren’t hitting the used car market.
I think by this fall, you are going to see more bad economic news hitting consumers. The media tries to hide it and boost “Bidenomics” but voters look at their own monthly budget and know they are in a lot worse shape than they were four years ago.
The Sahm Rule typically triggers three months after the start of a recession.
I got a mind boggling 6000.00 ppp loan that was forgiven (thank you btw) and a 10k disaster loan (100 a month payment minimum) the two combine covered 1 month of business and home expenses.
Thankfully catalytic converters held their value though COVID (now they are worth about what they were 5 years ago) so that helped too.
I think I know who you are talking about. Has a lot in North Carolina and specializes in 5k and less.. I can’t remember his name.
The auction here is full of repos too. The bank we had that would take anyone with a pulse citizen or illegal won’t touch most people now.
I could empty my lot if I did tote the note but I’d probably not see a payment after the down payment.
We are seeing an uptick in parts for older (2000-05s) that normally wouldn’t sell like Transmissions and engines. Thankfully during COVID we stocked up on those types of cars. The big yards around us crushed everything 2010 and older so if you want something it almost has to come from me.
“The thing is that historically since the early 50s, .37 and .50 have the same record of calling recessions.”
According to fed data the only time it reached 0.5 was in 2020 and totally missed the 2000 and 2008 recessions only reaching 0.05.
OTOH, the rule was not designed to predict recession. I was designed to signal when to start fed stimulus.
Amy klobuchar has been touring the state and its small businesses. She is a Democrat and she’s up for reelection. That’s the only time they care about us.
Not that she’s attempted to but I will not let her in my business if she shows up.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=910571&rn=34
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