[guitar Josh]

We're probably in the early months of a recession. Multiple employment-based inflation indicators are flashing red. The most famous is the Sahm Rule, which hasn't been triggered yet. It's at .37, and the trigger is official at .50. The thing is that historically since the early 50s, .37 and .50 have the same record of calling recessions.

.37 is usually just usually 1-2 months earlier than .50.

[TexasGator]

The Sahm Rule typically triggers three months after the start of a recession.

[TexasGator]

“The thing is that historically since the early 50s, .37 and .50 have the same record of calling recessions.”

According to fed data the only time it reached 0.5 was in 2020 and totally missed the 2000 and 2008 recessions only reaching 0.05.

OTOH, the rule was not designed to predict recession. I was designed to signal when to start fed stimulus.