Posted on 02/02/2024 10:46:04 AM PST by Kazan
There is a slew of reports that Friday will be General Zaluzhny’s last day as the head of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. I don’t know what will happen. I cannot rule out that the press reports are an information operation based on wishful thinking. Then again, it may be real. I plan on doing a podcast tomorrow around noon to talk about what transpired in the Ukraine soap opera. Kudos to Alex Christoforou for dubbing this “Days of Kiev.” An homage to the legendary U.S. soap, Days of Our Lives. There is no one alive and involved in the U.S. Government who was part of the lethal clown show in Vietnam that led to the overthrow of President Diem. Is it possible that the term, Zelensky, is Ukrainian for Vietnam’s Diem? We’ll see.
John Helmer, who publishes at Dancing With Bears, translated an article by Yevgeny Krutikov, a Russian military analyst who served with the GRU. I am providing the full article because it illuminates one aspect of Russia’s strategy in the Donbas.
“ 'The settlement of Tabayevka in the Kharkov region has been liberated,' the Russian Defense Ministry says. We are not just facing the capture of a village: Russian troops are now hacking into the contact lines, which have not budged for a year. Russia is creating a new strategic situation in the Kharkov region, threatening to dismember the Ukrainian defence up to the Donetsk agglomeration.
First, Krakhmalnoye, then Tabayevka – Russian troops have advanced in the Svatovo direction (Kharkov region), pushing the enemy to a new line of defence (to the village of Peschanoye). Slightly to the north, already close to Kupyansk, the enemy’s positions are also gradually moving to the west and southwest.
Along the way, forests are being cleared, which the VSU [Ukrainian Armed Forces] is turning into fortified areas, even giving them names (“Alligator” and “Woodpecker”). The enemy is losing the old lines of trenches, the first line of contact has been destroyed. Something similar is happening directly near Kupyansk, but there the advanced fortified lines in Sinkovka are being held still by the VSU, though the positions on the flanks have gradually begun to sink.
At first glance, we are looking at isolated episodes of positional warfare, since the big, iconic and recognizable geographical names do not appear in the information releases. But this is not quite true.
Firstly, even in this scenario as published so far, strategic threats arise for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for example, in the possible drive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to the Oskol River which has far-reaching prospects. Notwithstanding, it is still impossible to predict when this will become possible in practice.
Secondly, the enemy has been demonstrating a systemic defence crisis in the Kupyansk direction during the past week. The defence of Kupyansk has been under construction by the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the spring of last year, when the decision was made in Kiev on a ‘counteroffensive’ in the southern direction. New brigades with western armoured vehicles were sent to the southern section of the contact line, and Kupyansk and the area around it were designated for defence with the rest of their forces.
In Kiev, they were convinced that Russian troops were forming an offensive group in the Kupyansk direction, and so the VSU began to wait there for a frontal assault. However, as a result, the Russian Army did not undertake anything of the kind in this area. Instead, the Ukrainian units were gradually ground down by the Russian army in positional battles, while the Kupyansk group of the VSU had to be replenished with whatever troops were left.
Now Ukrainian sources are complaining that as a consequence, a combination of lines has formed in the sinkhole areas (that’s the same Krakhmalnoye and Tabayevka). Into these lines the VSU has herded separate battalions from different units, with the result that unified management and command have been lost, and the performance quality of the troops has left much to be desired.
As a result, the VSU is considering the possibility of transferring the remnants of those forces which participated in the failed ‘counteroffensive”’ to Kupyansk from the southern direction. Before that, they had been sent in great haste sent to Avdeyevka.
But this is already a systemic problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since there is trouble in the southern sector. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have gradually regained some of the positions which were left during the so-called counteroffensive, and these forces continue to move forward. We are even talking about possible threats to Orekhov, a rearguard city for the VSU, from which all the communications and command of the ‘counteroffensive’ had been carried out.
Behind the defensive fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an open field for tens of kilometres opens up on a whole group of sites. Kiev’s military reserves are gradually being squandered, and there is practically no human materiel left to plug the holes. Related to these problems there are the panic campaigns in Kiev about total mobilization.
There is another problem: the attrition of officers. Western military personnel cannot replace this crucial resource — they can only be used to service technically complicated weapons systems such as air defence or long-range artillery. Along the line of contact, foreign officers are more likely to interfere due to their ignorance of the language and misunderstanding of the mentality of the [Ukrainian] subordinates.
There are other factors weakening the Ukrainian defence, but they are not directly related to military operations. For example, the Western sponsors are really concerned about the corruption of the Ukrainian leadership. The inspections and audits which are taking place in Kiev on this issue right now are preventing Ukraine from building new defensive lines swiftly enough.
Another non-military factor: political discord among the various factions of the Ukrainian authorities. The premonition of defeat is triggering a drop in morale, not only in the troops, but also in the elites.
All this in general creates a strategic opportunity for Russia to seriously change the situation on the line of contact.
Partial tactical successes must at some point turn into a major breakthrough in the enemy’s defence. Moreover, we are talking about such a breakthrough that will not stop in just two or three days at the next defensive line, but will lead inevitably, precisely, to the collapse of the front. This is exactly what the efforts of the Russian Armed Forces are now aimed at, probing for the weaknesses in Ukrainian defensive positions.
The liberation of Tabayevka is an example of just such an approach. Sooner or later, the VSU will not have time to create a new defensive line behind a particular settlement. And then we will see how the special operation will break the current positional deadlock."
If the comedian Zelensky manages to remove General Zaluzhny and replace him with Intel Chief Budanov we can expect more chaos among Ukrainian forces facing off against Russia. I am not suggesting that Zaluzhny is a great military leader or strategist, but he does understand the complexity of running a combined arms military operation. Budanov does not and will not have time to learn the ropes.
Ukraine confronts two deficits that cannot be remedied for at least one year — 1) lack of trained manpower and 2) lack of ammunition, air defense and reliable combat vehicles. Russia enjoys a clear tactical advantage on both counts.
Helmer succinctly describes Russia’s plan for the near term:
"When the General Staff have been discussing with President Vladimir Putin the timing of the Russian offensive to force the Kiev regime into capitulation, it has been agreed, understood, and repeated that the strategic reserves of the Ukrainian forces should be destroyed first, together with the supply lines for the weapons and ammunition crossing the border from the US and the NATO allies.
This process, they also agreed, should take as long as required with least casualties on the Russian side, as determined by military intelligence. Also agreed and pre-conditional, there should be no repeat of the political intelligence failures of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) which precipitated the failed special forces operation known as the Battle of Antonov (Hostomel) Airport from February 24 to April 2, 2022."
I recommend you read his full piece.
bkmk
Ukraine, by admission of its own officials, needs 500,000 troops. The average age of the Ukrainian soldier is now 43. Where else are they going to troops from other than foreign sources?
Johnson is infinitely more informed and has been more correct than the Zeeper creepers here. Everything you and your ilk spew has been propaganda.
Ukraine has ZERO chance of getting an inch of territory back that is no under Russian control. It can only lose more ground. If you want to make a little wager on that, I'm more than willing to.
That sounds comment straight from the WEF forum.
Western people? Where do you live? In Ukraine?
How is the weather in Kazan?
“That clown Larry said some 700 days ago that the total collapse of Ukraine is a matter of few days.”
Oh this is from him eh? Explains his quoting the Russian MOD.
I bet him and McGregor compare notes....
I wonder at the stupidity of the West in not mass producing drones better than the Iranian and Chines ones Russia is using and flooding the Ukes with more than they can use and use constantly. Anti tank, anti personnel, set fuel depots ablaze, etc.
And the means to strike deep within Russia itself. Take out the (2?) main oil pipelines that Russia uses to ship oil to the East for tankers and sales. Deny them the means to fund the invasion.
100% false...and anyone whose been paying attention knows it.
However, the West wants no part of a direct confrontation with Russia.
Stick to chasing skinnies and arab militias for your own good.
If this was as important as our “betters” say it was then we AND NATO should’ve had boots on the ground and shut this down immediately.
But no… we had to play around and now things are far worse.
You’re absolutely right. Great miss by the west here. I blame it on the past 20 years being policing operations.
Biden has an opportunity to somewhat equalize things here by bombing Iranian factories making these drones since Iran needs to be bombed anyway, but I am not getting my hopes up.
LOL The fact is that Russia is losing about 1,000 men a day and the last big assault the Russians made on January 30th resulted in about losing about 20 AFVs and most of the infantry and crews.
Z was in mucho trouble until Nuland showed up a put everyone back in the US approved pecking order for their graft. Nuland and the other DC bosses reminded all their second tier Uke stooges to not cut in the grifting line. Everyone will get their cut.
But, but...that’s not what UMCRevMom says on her nightly propaganda threads.
Could you find NATO who aren’t stoned?
“All the young men in Ukraine are dead. Bring in NATO troops”!
That’s it. They don’t care how many lives are lost or ruined.
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The problem is no one took seriously to Graham, Austin and senile Joe when they stated “ we will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian “, well, they were serious….and the Ukie Rada and citizens are realizing how they have been used by senile Joe. The current Ukie mobilization fiasco illustrates the Ukies are finally awakening.
I’m a VN combat vet and my oldest grandson is 16. If the draft comes back, I will do all I can to see that he does not enter the present day military which is used and abused for the benefit of the Globalists/Deep State evil bastards.
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Amen, brother. Everything about senile Joe and his corrupted Ukraine has a putrid stench about it.
Betcha they wished they made a deal 2 years ago instead of listening to NATO.
You mean like the deal they made back in 1991 wherein Russia recognizes Ukraine's sovereignty of all of its territory in exchange for Ukraine handing over its nukes? How's that one working out for the Ukrainians?
Expecting honest dealing from Russia is like expecting an abusive man to beat his wife only on alternate Tuesdays.
It can go either way, if Trump wins, you'll see that all the Western aid to Ukraine dries up rather quickly. Russia will demand concessions to sign the cease-fire.
If Biden wins, Ukraine will get continued aid from the West. Putin will be under pressure to withdraw from Ukraine. He'll make the deal as long as Ukraine leaves Crimea alone.
Probably won’t show up on this thread because the news/propaganda isn’t hers.
They may not allow those videos in St. Petersburg, but the Russians on the ground know how it ends for them.
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