Threat Matrix 2024

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.

Getting a bigger pile of firewood split as low temps on Sat, Sun and Mon are forecast to be -27, -31 and -26 respectively; all before adding in wind chills that could reach -55.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****

Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry is going to lead the US delegation to Davos with other selected main team players -

- United States Special Representative for Ukraine’s Economic Recovery Penny Pritzker
- Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien
- United States Agency for International Development Administrator Samantha Power
- Senator Chris Coons

Others, including REPUBLICAN congress critters are also scheduled to attend.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Upcoming events of importance

- Jan 13th - prohamas March on DC
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed

****

See Ecuador below as a harbinger of potential illegal issues here in the US.

***
Journalists covering Trump’s federal appeal case were caught on a hot mic making jokes about him being assassinated.

OBSERVATION - I’ve been noting for at least the past year the increase in ‘talk’ by the left of assassinating Trump. Of course the faithful leftist “journalists” are part of that ongoing level of discussion. They seem to glorify the action.

***
Ray Epps sentenced to 1 year probation, $500 fine after telling J6ers “we need to go into the Capitol”

OBSERVATION - When a tyrannical govt sets up two tiers of justice and does so in such an open manner, bad things are going to be happening sooner than later. This ‘sentence’ takes all question away - Epps was a govt plant/agent provocateur. He sure better hope the country doesn’t break down into open civil war because he has a big target on his back.

Economy-

Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.

*****

(FO) Apollo Asset Management warned in a recent research report that U.S. banking conditions are worsening as interest rates remain high.

Apollo concluded that several banks – including Morgan Stanley, HSBC, Ally Bank, Regions, and about 30 others – are likely to start reorganizing their balance sheets. This process could get disorderly and spark another banking crisis. Also, banks are the most important funding source for U.S. small businesses, and nearly half of Americans are employed by small businesses. A widespread banking crisis could impact small business growth and hiring.

OBSERVATION - Key observation by FO. There are many factors that are not commonly in the calculations of recessions and current weaknesses in the banking sector are some of them. Besides reorganization issues, many banks are still hurting from the drastic changes in the bond market and have spent last summer / fall restructuring that to firewall the same issues that took out Silcone Valley Banks.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The scandal grows as the Pentagon reveals that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had prostate cancer surgery. This is not a ‘simple’ elective surgery that he initially reported.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS

More evidence that ‘excess deaths’ are linked to the jab.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Dates of importance
January 19 - funding for federal transportation programs, housing and food plans and other resources will expire.
February 2 - funding for Departments of Health and Human Services, Commerce, Labor, State and Defense will expire
****

House Freedom Caucus members are considering a motion to vacate Speaker Mike Johnson for his collusion with Democrats, following his negotiations on a budget with the democrats that was essentially the same as that his predecessor was working towards. Such a motion will throw the congress and in particular the republicans in the House into serious turmoil. There have been several recent losses of Rep congressmen due to resignations and expulsions, so the margin of majority is even slimmer. A motion prior to passage of the budget bill would increase the likelihood of at least a partial govt shutdown as things would likely hit the breaks during the struggle for a new speaker takes place. The budget ‘compromise’ is the latest in backtracks on his promises, another being the release of the J6 tapes - delayed to blur the faces of participants and essentially hiding all the govt plants (at least 200 FBI provocateurs in one case).

Johnson for his part spent Tuesday answering criticisms, he said it’s “the best” Republicans could hope to get with a narrow chamber majority and a Dem-controlled Senate.

OBSERVATION - The extreme danger that did rear its head the last speakership marathon is the nasty rumor that some republicans threatened to cross the isle and vote the democrat minority leader into the speakership role. That would create great chaos as then with two houses and the presidency, the leftists democrats would be able to put on a full court press to get their kill america agenda passed before the elections - creating more troubles for Trump should he be reelected.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Dates to watch -
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
March 7 - State of the union

****

Some speculation that biden has delayed his SOTU address to March 7 to discern if Trump is winning at poll predicted numbers. At which time biden may withdraw under the cover of the 25th amendment, to allow a fresher candidate.

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT

US mortgage lender loanDepot confirmed in an 8k filing on Monday that it is the latest victim of a cyberattack that has brought critical systems offline.

“Upon detecting unauthorized activity, the Company promptly took steps to contain and respond to the incident, including launching an investigation with assistance from leading cybersecurity experts, and began the process of notifying applicable regulators and law enforcement.

“Though our investigation is ongoing, at this time, the Company has determined that the unauthorized third party activity included access to certain Company systems and the encryption of data. In response, the Company shut down certain systems and continues to implement measures to secure its business operations, bring systems back online and respond to the incident.”

Illegal Immigration –

See Ecuador below as a harbinger of things to come in the US.

***
New York City kicked students out of a Brooklyn high school in order to relocate nearly 2,000 migrants housed at Floyd Bennett Field ahead of a potentially damaging storm.

In a statement, City Hall referred to the illegal migrants as ‘guests’ and called it a temporary stay.

‘The health and safety of migrants in our care is always a top priority, which is why we are currently overseeing the relocation of 1,900 guests from the humanitarian emergency response and relief center at Floyd Bennett Field due to an updated forecast with increased wind speeds estimated to be at over 70 MPH tonight.’

Students will be forced to ‘remote’ school for the duration.

OBSERVATION - Parents are complaining loudly, but I’ll bet most of them voted for Adams in the recent election. You get what you vote for.

***
Looks like the long postponed impeachment of Mayorkas is about to begin. House Republicans failed in November to pass Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) resolution to impeach Mr. Mayorkas, opting instead to refer the resolution to the Homeland Security Committee for investigation.

OBSERVATION - Impeachment will not result in removal unless the Senate convicts - which it won’t do.

China –
Important dates of notice -
13 January 2024 - Taiwan general election

*****

(FO) Bloomberg Economics estimates an invasion of Taiwan will cost the world 10 trillion USD or 10% of the world’s GDP in the first year. A blockade would cost “only” 5 trillion USD, according to their estimate. This is similar to their estimate of the cost of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. At the same time the U.S. would experience a 6.7% GDP loss and 80% of Asian trade would cease.

OBSERVATION - While Bloomberg focuses primarily on the impacts to the US economy, impact to China’s will be intense, already suffering from serious problems. Another aspect of each scenario is just how much of the current Taiwan industrial base they can capture intact. The invasion scenario is the most dangerous towards that goal, thus increasing the probability of an eventual blockade to obtain their goals. Taiwan elections may clarify China’s methods and timeline.

North/South Korea –

South Korea has officially scrapped the mutually agreed buffer zones in the Yellow Sea due to the recent North Korean artillery drills. South Korea’s military will resume artillery drills and exercises near the land and sea border.
South Korean officials indicated recently that if North Korea continues to threaten South Koreans, the military will react and take action.

Chinese fishing trawlers have mysteriously stopped appearing near Yeonpyeong Island. There are fears that North Korea have warned them to stay away.

South Korea has also signaled that it will restart military exercises which were paused as part of a 2018 security pact with the North, saying it was considering scrapping the deal altogether following recent shows of force by the DPRK.

OBSERVATION - The peace between the Koreas are fast falling apart due to the weak and inept handling by the biden regime. Actions do not indicate that war is imminent, but some of the guardrails are falling that could result in a serious incident that could lead to war.

Japan –

Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso announced Japan needs a plan to evacuate its diaspora in Taiwan in the event of a conflict.

OBSERVATION - As things are expected to heat up with the impending national election in Taiwan, China threats and US cluelessness, Japan is wisely trying to get a head of the power curve. There is no evidence that China is making any plans to allow other nationals to depart Taiwan in the event of hostilities.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024

With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.

Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelyhood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.

While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.

Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.

*****
Russia has been hit with a cold wave that has totally upset winter heating in many areas of the nation. With sub zero temps, water pipes are bursting, heating plants inoperable, gasoline shortages, etc, the locals are getting really upset. Many of the power outages are in and around Moscow - where the favored of the putin regime live, making backlash even bigger.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the single digits to 20s degree F range with on again, off again snow. Lows 0 to the teens.

RUMINT – Biden administration, Ukraine, and Group of 7 (G7) Nations allies held secret talks on 16 December in Saudi Arabia to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine.

24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground.

Russia continued to make the capture of Adviivka its priority with numerous attacks overnight, with minor terrain gains and heavy losses.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. Increasingly cold temperatures will gradually freeze the ground, but this won’t happen for sometime yet.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- SecSt Blinken meeting with Netanyahu.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel’s Ministry of Health has alerted hospitals in the north of the country to be prepared to receive thousands of casualties
NOTE - This is an indicator that potential open war is closing fast in the north. Could be based on seeing Hezbollah preparations for retaliation for the recent deaths of numerous senior leaders.

The Washington Post, according to American officials: Blinken is pressuring Israel to reduce the pace of fighting as soon as possible

Blinken tells Netanyahu: There is a need to ensure lasting, sustainable peace for Israel and the region, including by the realization of a Palestinian state

***
Unconfirmed reports that Israel is aware of the exact whereabouts of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ chief in Gaza, but is refraining from carrying out a military strike because the terror leader has surrounded himself with dozens of hostages as human shields, Israeli media reported on Monday.
Former Israeli military intelligence head Amos Yadlin told Israel’s public radio, Kan, that Sinwar’s location, in the tunnels under Khan Younis in southern Gaza, was known but that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was holding back from taking action because of his use of the hostages as human shields.

OBSERVATION - This is the expected MO of these vermin, actions that they’ve done in the past. Of course no international cry since these are jewish hostages.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Increasing fighting in central and s Gaza as IDF closes the loop on Hamas and affiliated terror elements. Intel estimates that IDF has rendered a third of Hamas’ forces combat ineffective with the remaining elements suffering from high leader casualties.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Commander of the Southern Lebanon Region of Hezbollah’s Aerial Unit, Ali Hussein, has been eliminated by an IAF aircraft. Ali led dozens of explosive and surveillance UAV terrorist activities against Israel, as well as the attack against the headquarters of the IDF Northern Command yesterday.

Lebanese Foreign Ministry - The Israeli attacks led to the displacement of more than 75,000 citizens from the south

Hezbollah number two Naim Qassem in a speech Tuesday warned that Israel’s wave of targeted killings “cannot lead to a phase of retreat but rather to a push forward for the resistance”

———WEST BANK——————————-

Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

There have been 127 attacks by Iran-backed proxy groups on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria since October, says Pentagon PresSec. Nine since Jan 1 2024 alone.

The global coalition air defense intercepted a suicide drone launched by Iranian-backed militias attempting to target the Conoco military base in northeastern Deir ez-Zur

On Jan. 9, at approximately 9:15 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthis launched a complex attack of Iranian designed one-way attack UAVs (OWA UAVs), anti-ship cruise missiles, and an anti-ship ballistic missile from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen into the Southern Red Sea, towards international shipping lanes where dozens of merchant vessels were transiting.

Eighteen OWA UAVs, two anti-ship cruise missiles, and one anti-ship ballistic missile were shot down by a combined effort of F/A-18s from USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), USS Gravely (DDG 107), USS Laboon (DDG 58), USS Mason (DDG 87), and the United Kingdom’s HMS Diamond (D34). This is the 26th Houthi attack on commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea since Nov. 19. There were no injuries or damage reported.

NOTE - This was the largest salvo to date.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. They have most of N Gaza cleared and are moving efforts to central and S Gaza.

Tensions are still high following the targeted hits of key Hezbollah leaders. Actions in the north appear to have lessened, but can pick up at any instant. Increasing indicators that Israel is preparing for a full-on war but any timeline is being held close for obvious reasons.

Houthi barrage towards the Red Sea yesterday should be met with a massive counter strike in Yemen on their bases, storage facilities and launch sites. Is the hospitalization of the Sec Def affecting this actions planning and execution? Besides consuming expensive and in low supply missiles to take out cheap drone/missile systems, Houthi’s aggression also hopes for a lucky shot and hitting a coalition vessel.

Iran –

Videos of the missiles tracks and air defense engagement in the Iranian port of Chabahar have come out. Chabahar is home to some important Iranian military bases.
OSINT observers think this could be an air defense exercise as there was talks on the “The Great Prophet-18” exercise reportedly starting today.

Saudi Arabia –

SA says it still wants to normalize relations with Israel.

Central / South America General-

Ecuador - Civil war alert

Ecuador is facing a security crisis after the escape of the country’s most dangerous criminal, José Adolfo Macías, alias Fito, from a maximum-security prison on January 8. Fito is the leader of the Los Choneros gang. Fito’s escape triggered a wave of violence and chaos in six prisons across the country, where inmates took over the facilities, kidnapped guards, and started fights. The unrest also spilled over to the streets, especially in Esmeraldas province.

Gunfights broke out between the cartel and law enforcement across much of the country. Gunmen attacked a university in Guayaquil, Ecuador with reports claiming they are attempting to kidnap students. The incident comes as a television station crew was taken hostage on live air.

Cartels have started killing random people and police officers all over the country The cartel has begun executing hostages in Ecuador Armed clashes between narcos and the police near the Presidential Palace in Quito.

In Ecuador armed gangs are hunting down and executing police officers live on video.

The president of Ecuador has issued the following announcement

“President Daniel Noboa Azin signed the executive decree declaring Internal Armed Conflict and identified the following transnational organized crime groups as terrorist organizations and belligerent non-state actors: Águilas, ÁguilasKiller, Ak47, Caballeros Oscuros, ChoneKiller, Choneros, Covicheros, Cuartel de las Ugly, Cuban, Fatal, Gangster, Kater Piler, Lizards, Latin Kings, Lobos, Los p.27, Los Tiburones, Mafia 18, Mafia Trébol, Patrones, R7, Tiguerones.”

He has ordered the armed forces to carry out military operations to neutralize these groups

OBSERVATION - This could be a picture of what is coming to the US soon. It is no secret that countries like Venezuela have emptied their prisons and sent them north. The overwhelming numbers of single, military aged males in the illegal population with time on their hands another growing concern. Already, ethnic groups of illegals are getting into brawls over entitlements such as housing, and are increasing causing a crime wave that the local black population is bristling against.

Reality is, cartels already have operations established here in the US and narco violence will be just another tool to intimidate the citizenry and neutralize the over worked and understaffed police forces. Similar violence in Mexico can and likely will spill over into the US very soon and these illegals will be first as foot soldiers.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****

Just before Christmas, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that it would publish new transgender health guidelines.
A panel of 21 experts will meet between 19 and 24 February this year at the WHO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland to work on the guidelines. The membership of this panel has been criticized for being biased towards policies allowing gender self-identification.
The guidelines are said to focus on five different interrelated areas. As is evident from the wording, these are clearly skewed towards normalizing gender self-identification.

“provision of gender-affirming care, including hormones; health workers education and training for the provision of gender-inclusive care; provision of health care for trans and gender diverse people who suffered interpersonal violence based in their needs; health policies that support gender-inclusive care, and legal recognition of self-determined gender identity.”

https://harbingersdaily.com/world-health-organization-pushes-gender-self-id-with-new-activist-driven-guidelines/

OBSERVATION - Remember, this same WHO which under the pending modifications to the “pandemic” treaty will be empowered to enforce globally any thing they consider to be a ‘health’ emergency. That includes this and even potentially extending to gun control - a perennial theme of globalist health groups, and even the US.

***
Google is changing its content rules in anticipation of a “sensitive event” happening from February onwards.

OBSERVATION - Bottom line, Google is setting up its censorship plan outline. A “sensitive event” according to them can be just about anything and their actions could be seen as a harbinger of a very turbulent 2024.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Upcoming events of importance

- Jan 13th - prohamas March on DC
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed

****

Washington state Democrats opened the 2024 legislative session with another assault on gun rights. This time they hope to reclassify ammunition as a “privilege” — one that should be subject to an onerous tax because the one thing they love more than taking away guns is taking away your money.
State Representatives My-Linh Thai and Liz Berry, both Democrats, introduced House Bill 2238. Under the auspices of public safety, claiming access to ammunition is the cause of violence and not their soft-on-crime policies that go easy on criminals (including those who use guns in their crimes), the bill imposes an 11% sales and use tax on ammunition statewide. This would be an additional tax on top of the sales tax and any other tax that may levied when purchasing ammunition. The city of Seattle, for example, imposes a per-round tax.

You cannot bear arms if the firearm has no ammunition in it. This provision, like the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, implicitly includes all necessary components of firearms like ammunition as essential to the protected exercise of the right to bear arms. Without access to ammunition, the right to bear arms would be rendered meaningless, as firearms without ammunition are unable to fulfill their intended purpose in defense of oneself or the state.

https://mynorthwest.com/3945835/rantz-wa-democrats-deem-ammo-privilege-ammunition-tax-way-end-gun-rights/

OBSERVATION - Failing to outright ban guns, they (and other dark blue states as well) are looking at using onerous taxation to price gun ownership out of existence. Memory fails me at the moment but I do remember some court cases on the subject calling this unconstitutional. Regardless, if this passes, lawsuits will fly. Business will be booming in Idaho.
Remember, the battle of Lexington and Concord was based on a British raid to confiscate black powder and bullets, to prevent use by patriots.

***
(FO) Texas Republican Party approved several non-binding ballot propositions for the upcoming March primary, including one on making gold and silver legal tender in the state. Proposition 7 states that “The Texas Legislature should establish authority within the Texas State Comptroller’s office to administer access to gold and silver through the Texas Bullion Depository for use as legal tender.”

OBSERVATION - The development of parallel structures like what is considered to be accepted as currency is a stage in the process that may lead eventually to a national ‘divorce’ by states. BTW other states are following similar measures.

***
Thursday, 18 January 2024 “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests appear to be gaining some traction in pre-event posting on social media. It is the one-year anniversary of the police-involved shooting death of “Tortuguita,” an anarchist taking part in the occupation of the Atlanta Public Safety Training Center, also referred to as “Cop City.” Tortuguita was shot and killed by police after opening fire on them. Violent actions are being encouraged.

***
Word coming out that the leftists that organized the I-5 blockage in Seattle are looking to expand protests against defense contractors and other businesses that do businesses with Israel.

OBSERVATION - The anarchist and pro-hamas groups in the Seattle region flexed their muscle with the I-5 blockage (as well as blocking numerous side streets). It showed the city and state to be essentially powerless to stop their protests, an attitude that will guarantee more protests with more violence.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

According to a report by Politico, U.S. officials said there’s an escalating risk that Lebanese Hezbollah militants will strike Americans in the Middle East, but perhaps of even more concern, they could hit inside the United States.
The Iran-backed militants would be likely to likely target U.S. personnel in the Middle East first, the officials told the news organization.
U.S. intelligence agencies gathering Hezbollah data say what they’ve seen suggested it may be weighing strikes against U.S. troops or diplomatic staffers overseas, two of the officials said

https://www.newsmax.com/us/hezbollah/2024/01/10/id/1149132/

OBSERVATION - It is pretty much accepted as fact that Hezbollah and other radical islamic groups, already have cells on the ground here in the US. The Gaza war has given them an excuse to start finalizing targeting plans, and the risk of an attack will increase as the war continues. Attacks are certain if Hezbollah and Israel go full on in S Lebanon. The risk to the US is made worse by the apparent weakness in US foreign policy toward Iran and Hezbollah. The very weak response to the Houthi is feeding into that evaluation. How big of an act can they commit without triggering a massive US response? Houthi have targeted US naval vessels - with not retribution. What about a major terror strike?

Economy-

Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.

*****

Prices that consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose more than expected in December, according to a Labor Department measure Thursday that shows inflation still holding a grip on the U.S. economy.

The consumer price index increased 0.3% for the month, higher than the 0.2% estimate at a time when most economists and policymakers see inflationary pressures easing. On a 12-month basis, the CPI closed 2023 up 3.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.2% and 3.2%.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI also increased 0.3% for the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.8%.
Much of the increase came do to rising shelter costs. Fed officials largely expected shelter costs to decline through the year as renewed leases reflect lower rents. However, pressure from a nearly impossible housing market translated to pressures on the rental market.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/cpi-inflation-report-december-2023-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-december-higher-than-expected-pushing-the-annual-rate-to-3point4percent.html

OBSERVATION - Though appearing to be a ‘minor’ increase, it shows that the Fed’s efforts to control inflation thru higher prime rates hasn’t been fully successful. The only thing that helped were lower gasoline prices -affecting the core numbers. Prices for groceries are still crazy high and going higher. IMHO, the ‘special sauce’ applied to the December numbers will likely cause the CPI to be increased when it gets its second review.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Chief of Naval Personnel (CNP) Vice Admiral Richard Cheeseman announced that the Navy has 22,000 unfilled at-sea billets. Adm. Cheeseman expects the Navy to miss its recruiting goals for Fiscal Year 2024 and is focusing instead on “net contracts,” which include recruits in the delayed entry program. The delayed entry program has been depleted of recruits.

OBSERVATION- Said it once, I’ll say it again. When you vilify the majority of Americans that have historically come into the military thru calling them ‘domestic terrorists’, the willingness to submit to that authority becomes nil. Many veterans like myself are no longer recommending military service to young people on the very basis that the leadership has no qualms about abusing them and stabbing them in the back for political correctness / woke reasons.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS

Fauci admits to Congress that certain COVID social distancing guidelines lacked scientific basis: ‘Sort of just appeared’
Fauci also “surprised” the chairman of a House subcommittee with “how much he doesn’t recall” about the early days of the outbreak that killed more than 1.1 million Americans.

OBSERVATION - He knows there will be no retribution or justice against him, no matter how many lies he speaks under oath before congress.

POLITICAL FRONT –

March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

****
Anger still boiling among Republican congresscritters. House conservatives voted against a procedural motion to bring a group of bills to the floor, a major defeat for Speaker Mike Johnson that highlights the anger inside the Republican Conference.

OBSERVATION - Though still a high probability, Johnson has to scramble to regain some credibility. The Freedom caucus may also be weighing just how much chaos this will contribute to the 2024 election cycle as well as the potential threat by some republicans to jump ship and vote for a democrat speaker should the move to vacate the seat get triggered.

***
hunter biden made a show appearance at a committee meeting to decide on issuing contempt of congress charges. He and his entourage got up during the meeting and walked out upon receiving heavy questions. The committed voted overwhelmingly to seek contempt of congress charges.

***
According to a new report in Politico, the Fulton County prosecutor got help from none other than January 6 committee, which was organized and run during the previous Congress under former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
The partisan coordination between the January 6 committee and the Fulton County D.A.’s office reveals more insight into Trump opponents’ relentless efforts to criminalize legal objections to the 2020 election.

OBSERVATION - The evidence of collusion and indiscretion continue to grow over Willis’ RICO prosecution efforts. The kangaroo court may still convict Trump, but the appeals are increasingly becoming a slam dunk probability for Trump.

RELATED - District Attorney Fani Willis improperly hired an alleged romantic partner to prosecute Donald Trump and financially benefited from their relationship, according to a court motion filed Monday which argued the criminal charges in the case were unconstitutional.

Illegal Immigration –

NYC Mayor Eric Adams on housing illegal aliens:

“It is my vision to take the next step to this — go to the faith-based locales and then move to a private residence. There are residents who are suffering right now because of economic challenges. They have spare rooms.”

OBSERVATION - He’s already started taking control of high schools - particularly in deep red areas that overwhelmingly supported Trump. Forced housing is against the constitution and I am clueless as to where he gets the idea that residents have “spare rooms” to allow these undocumented, illegals to park themselves in homes - exposing the residents to potential violence and criminal activity.
RELATED - 6 months ago, Massachusetts began to ask residents to host illegals in their homes and properties.

IN MORE RELATED - The WH has kicked the cities under the bus.
Speaking to reporters at the White House Wednesday, Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre punted the issue of illegal immigrants kicking kids out of their schools as a “New York” problem, claiming no responsibility for the catastrophic and unprecedented flow into American cities.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2024/01/10/white-house-punts-illegals-taking-over-schools-back-as-a-new-york-problem-n2633446

OBSERVATION - Getting ugly fast as the WH punts to the cities.

China –
Important dates of notice -
13 January 2024 - Taiwan general election
*****

The Biden administration is sending a delegation to Taipei, Taiwan, this Saturday. James Steinberg and Stephen Hadley, a former Deputy Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, respectively, form the delegation.

OBSERVATION - With the Taiwan national elections just a couple days away, sending a delegation of this sort will certainly anger China. While there have been several smaller delegations, this one is timed with an election that may not go Beijing’s way. This is likely to draw a pre-planned military response from Beijing and numerous statements about “not encouraging Taiwan separatists.” (FO)
The potential for China to institute some degree of blockade is increasing.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024

*****

Conditions are worsening for Russians as multiple millions have lost power and heat to their homes/apartments due to power grid failures and ruptured heating lines throughout the country. This is creating secondary major damage to water lines and buildings from ruptured water lines.

NUCLEAR THREATS –
Deputy chairman of Russian Security Council Dmitriy Medvedev says missile strikes against missile launchers inside Russian Federation(that launching missiles against Ukrainian civilians) with western missiles will be considered as a threat to very existence of Russian Federation, and nuclear weapons could be used.
NOTE Medvedev has been talking about nuking just about everything over the past few years.

Logistics –

Russia is sending several of its latest self-propelled (SP) artillery systems, the 53-ton 2S35 Coalition-SV howitzer, to Ukraine. This new model is a major improvement over the 42-10n 2S19 Msta model currently in use. The 2S35 is the result of an R&D effort that lasted more than 20 years. It is not replacing the 2S19, which entered service in 1989 with over 1,100 produced by the time production ended in 2019. There are plenty of relatively new 2S19s for army artillery units. The 2S35 was originally supposed to be the final upgrade of the 2S19 but the improvements were so numerous and successful that an entirely new design, the 2S35, was the result. Both these SP systems use 152mm howitzers, which fire shells out to 40 kilometers in the 2S35. Using an extended range shell, the range is 80 kilometers using guided rounds.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htart/articles/20240111.aspx

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the single digits to 20s degree F range with on again, off again snow. Lows 0 to the teens.

24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.

Russia tossed a number of modified S300 missiles at Kharkiv, Hrodovka and Myrnohrad. Reportedly the targets were likely civilian infrastructure /power. But many of the impacts hit civilian residences.

Ukraine kept Russian ADA busy, Russian claiming to have intercepted drones over the Rostov, Tula and Kaluga regions.

Since 2014, 2022 and more recently winter 2023, Ukraine has been building a huge defensive system. The multilayered “Donbass Line” composed of many trench network is quite similar to Russian Surovikin system.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

The “Donbass Line” looks to be Russia’s worst nightmare. It took a more savvy Ukraine army to slowly pick their way through the Russian minefields and fortifications this summer. So far Russian just goes pedal to the metal - until it hitting mines, then all heck breaks loose. Seen time and again on the Adviivka front as well as other sectors. Construction indicates Ukraine is preparing for the long war as well.

Poland –

Police in Poland have stormed the nation’s presidential palace, still occupied by conservative Andrzej Duda. Cops took two ministers from the former Law and Justice (PiS) government to prison this week, despite the fact they had been awarded presidential pardons.

New globalist Prime Minister Donald Tusk, alongside the new Marshal (Speaker) of the Sejm (Legislature) Szymon Hołownia, have moved swiftly to persecute members of the former, right-wing government in moves similar to the Biden pursuit of Donald Trump.

Hołownia referred former interior minister and deputy interior minister Mariusz Kamiński and Maciej Wąsik to a chamber of the Supreme Court friendly to the new government, which ruled the pardons they previously received for “abuse of power” were invalid. The pair are accused of exceeding their powers in the 2000s, when Kamiński headed the Central Anticorruption Bureau. Their party, Law and Justice, are calling them “political prisoners” who are being punished for fighting corruption. Another chamber of the Supreme Court, importantly, has ruled their pardons were valid, while the Constitutional Tribunal has ruled the Supreme Court had no authority to review presidential pardoning powers in the first place.

Poland is now in a full-blown constitutional crisis. Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Małgorzata Manowska, appointed by Law and Justice, is accusing Hołownia and the Supreme Court judge who ruled against the ministers of “illegal actions” that “constitute a significant violation of the legal order”.

Polish nationals are reportedly taking to the streets in protest at what appears to be Globalists using the security forces to silence their opposition.

https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/01/10/globalism-unhinged-cops-storm-polands-presidential-palace-to-arrest-conservative-politicians/

OBSERVATION - Leftists are trying to quickly squelch any opposition voice and entrench controls over the nation. The recent elections pulled them into the control of the EU and away from their historic independence from EU controls. Could escalate quickly.

Europe / NATO General –

Belgian police have stopped a FlixBus near the city of Wetteren. Police suspect that someone onboard was on his way from France to Brussels to commit a terrorist attack.
Anti-terror units have arrived at the scene and have now surrounded the bus.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Two ‘journalists’ killed in Gaza were found to be terrorists from Hamas and Islamic Jihad

- Ceasefire/hostage release talks not making much progress.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Speaking in Egypt, Blinken said that the United States is focused on ensuring that the situation in the West Bank does not explode

Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, writes on his X (formerly) Twitter account in Hebrew: ‘The crimes of the Zionist regime will not be forgotten.’
“Even after the disappearance of this regime from the face of the earth, these crimes and the murder of thousands of children and women will be recorded in books,” he added in his post.

***
As part of new negotiation efforts to release remaining hostages from Gaza, held captive since the Hamas-led October 7 attack, an Israeli delegation landed in Cairo on Wednesday, according to an Egyptian official.
The report reiterated that Egypt and Qatar were working toward the release of civilian hostages held in Gaza by Hamas and other terror groups, in return for a ceasefire and the release of additional Palestinian prisoners by Israel.

The new Qatari proposal for a ceasefire would see the leaders of Hamas all be deported and all of the hostages captured by the terrorist group released in exchange for the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, according to news revealed by Channel 13 citing sources close to officials in Doha, Qatar.

Later on Wednesday, Sky News Arabia published Hamas’s view on the Qatari proposal, with the terror organization stating its objection to any deal that does not see them rule the Gaza Strip.
In addition, in a categoric statement, head of Hamas’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh said in Qatar on Tuesday that Israel “will never get their hostages back unless all our prisoners in the occupation prisons are released,” as per Sky. Furthermore, the terror group insists on a ceasefire prior to any negotiation on the release of hostages.

***
UN Watchdog says UNRWA workers praised Hamas October 7 massacres in internal Telegram channel
NOTE - The UNRWA has been an outspoken and partisan supporter of Hamas and called for Israel to stop the attacks in Gaza. They ceased to be a neutral party to this conflict from day one.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Main combat operations in the north of Gaza have come to an end, though there is still an IDF presence.

The IDF has encircled Al Bureij camp and advanced south along the Salah Al Deen Road.

The IDF has also continued to expand its control in the Khan Yunis area.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah says Israel targeted civil defense center affiliated with Islamic Health Authority in southern town of Hanin, two dead & injuries - “blatant attack on a center that serves citizens, provides relief, treats wounded as a result of the ongoing Israeli aggression”
NOTE - Hezbollah follows the tactic used by Hamas in that it hides its underground facilities under / adjacent to medical facilities.

Israeli army blocked Hezbollah infiltration into northern Israel by Dovev, violent clashes in the area.

Continued Hezbollah attacks by mortar and ATGM on the Israeli facilities on Mt Dov.

IDF struck a Hezbollah’s operational HQ and launch site in southern Lebanon

———WEST BANK——————————-

Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces. Security forces make many raids throughout the West Bank capturing Hamas and other terror leaders and cells.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Greece has announced it’s sending a Hydra Class Frigate (F-452) to the Red Sea to provide deterrence against the Houthi attacks on international maritime trade.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims responsibility for a drone attack on U.S. forces, western Qamishli. Iran-backed telegram channels claim that the attack targeted CIA HQ in the area

The Biden administration continues to refuse to redesignate Yemen’s Houthi rebels as a terrorist organization. Failure to do so has reported tied the hands of military planners as to the means of shutting down the continuing attacks.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

South Africa is hosting the International Court trial accusing Israel of genocide.
NOTE - If Israel were conducting such a campaign, the Arab deaths in Gaza would be 3+ million.

Global shipping rates are expected to sharply rise due to the essential closure of traffic thru the Red Sea, due in part to extra travel time and increased insurance rates. This spike was on a kind of hold pending the results of a coalition effort to stop the Houthis from firing on commercial vessels. This operation has been largely ineffective.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.

The Houthi problem continues to grow. It could have been dealt a serious set back weeks ago with a large, coordinated air and naval strike on key facilities and leadership, but so far biden and his sickie Sec Def have held back - endangering the fragile coalition partnership. With the last major Houthi attack, rhetoric has become more ‘menacing’ , however in the language of the region - actions speak louder than words. As long as there are no actions - words are meaning less.

Iran –

Iran seized a oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman that was in the center of a dispute between Iran and the US. The US-controlled & Greek-operated tanker was carrying 145,000 tonnes of oil from Iraq to Turkey

OBSERVATION This incident has the possibility of increasing the overall crisis in the region, building upon the Red Sea crisis now to the Hormuz Strait.

Central / South America General-

Ecuador - Civil war alert

Fighting continues across Ecuador between military/police and narco-terrorist organizations. Ecuador military update states that they have detained 329 gang members. No word on deaths/casualties on either side. Interesting messaging from the military in which they are referring any gang member as terrorists.

OBSERVATION - Situation is still fluid as explosions are also being reported in Quito and other areas. Public reaction to the deployment of military has so far been positive.

Misc of Note –

The Texas power grid is bracing for an arctic blast that will stress the network for several days. Hopefully, the grid management has seen to procedural changes that will see that gas turbine plants are spun-up earlier in anticipation of wind and solar losses seen a few years back. Reality is that cold kills more than heat does, so the closure in mass of coal and natural gas plants to meet bogus global climate change requirements does more to harm people than any good. Unless someone grabs the fed govt by the throat and stops this ‘greening’ of our power, we will crash into national unreliability of electrical power - even though we have vast amounts of coal / gas to run power plants.

Think preparedness in the event of power losses. Here in the Redoubt facing -30 in the coming days (before windchills that will take it to nearly -60) a key is a good wood stove/fireplace and lots of wood. My preps include at least 5 cords of wood ready at the start of fall. Alternative lights and cooking means (using the wood stove) are also on line if necessary. Look where you live - make appropriate preparations sooner rather than later. Its not ‘doomsday’ when it can be a regular winter occurrence, but it can turn into one without being ready.

-21 degrees and falling here in my corner of the Redoubt. Tomorrow morning forecast for a body numbing -39 ! (oh that’ll make your face hurt). Hot fire in the stove helping the furnace immensely.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

*****
The World Economic Forum will be discussing “Disease X” on January 17, 2024 as part of their annual meeting in Davos.
“With fresh warnings from the World Health Organization that an unknown “Disease X” could result in 20 times more fatalities than the coronavirus pandemic, what novel efforts are needed?”

OBSERVATION - Telegraphing their next play? They have been pounding that drum of another ‘pandemic’ for a couple years now. Hmmmm.

***
WEF just published their 2024 “Global Risks Report,” which is based on a survey they do of “experts.” And the experts they polled have a simple message:
The #1 threat to the globe is “misinformation and disinformation.” They identify “disinformation” as the spread of information that deviates from their approved “Narrative”, and their goal is to shut down all means by which dissenters can counter that “Narrative”. What they are pushing for, of course, is even harsher measures for censorship.

Other risks in order are:

- Extreme weather events (i.e. Global warming)
- Societal polarization
- Cyber insecurity
- Interstate armed conflict
- Lack of economic opportunity
- Involuntary immigration
- Economic downturn
- Pollution.

https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2024.pdf

OBSERVATION - Key to this list is what is important to the globalist elites - not necessarily the peasantry they seek to rule over.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Upcoming events of importance

- Jan 13th - prohamas March on DC
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed

****

Anti-Israel protesters reacted to the airstrikes overnight against Yemen by gathering at Times Square in New York City, chanting:

“UK and US go to hell”

OBSERVATION - The face of the protests going into this year and the elections is clearly developing into a massive anti-Israel movement and one willing to toss the willing leftists in congress under the bus.

***
A pair of Democratic lawmakers have introduced bills that would prevent private paramilitary activity in the U.S.
Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland and Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts put forth the legislation that would create a federal prohibition on paramilitary groups through civil and criminal enforcement.

The ban would hold individuals liable who directly engage in certain types of conduct, including intimidating state and local officials, interfering with government proceedings, pretending to be law enforcement, and violating people’s constitutional rights, while armed and acting as part of a private paramilitary organization.

The lawmakers say a federal law is necessary to prevent another Jan. 6-style attack on the Capitol by “white supremacists” who are tied to “private paramilitary actors.” Although each state has various laws for private paramilitary groups, Mr. Raskin and Mr. Markey said the laws are often outdated, underenforced or ignored.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jan/11/congressional-democrats-move-to-crack-down-on-mili/

OBSERVATION - Treading on dangerous ground and if the left manages to win both houses and the WH, this is an example of what they will try to inflict on America.
Let me make it very clear, if some still can’t see it. Patriot and militia groups are already throughly penetrated by govt agents and informers. The majority of the protestors at the Malhur standoff many years ago were of that ilk. The tyrants cannot afford to have not only armed, but trained opposition to their plans and efforts. This bill has very little to no chance of being passed under current conditions. But elections have consequences.

Key item to note - following the 2020 BLM/Antifa riots, the leftists began a large effort to train its followers in weapons usage and, yes, military tactics. Should, God forbid, this kind of legislation get passed, you can be sure that the two tier justice system will protect leftist militias while going after those considered to be on the right.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

There have been increased warnings of potential Hezbollah/Iranian terror attacks here in the US or against US interests globally as a result of the attack on Houthi facilities.

Economy-

Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.

*****

The price of oil has spiked 4% this morning after UK and US forces carried out military strikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. A barrel of Brent crude is currently at $80.55.

OBSERVATION - Based on fears that Iran would do something to impede the flow of oil thru the Straits of Hormuz in support of the Houthis .

***
The U.S. federal government posted a December deficit of $129 billion, up $44 billion or 52% from a year earlier as outlays rose while receipts fell from December 2022 levels that were swelled by pandemic-deferred tax payments, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday.
The Treasury said that outlays for December rose 3% to $559 billion, a December record, partly as a result of higher Social Security outlays and interest on the public debt. Receipts for the month fell 6% to $429 billion.
For the first three months of the 2024 fiscal year that started Oct. 1, the federal deficit reached $510 billion, up $89 billion, or 21% from the year ago period.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/u-s-budget-drficit/2024/01/11/id/1149247/

OBSERVATION - There is no limiter, biden continues to throw money at an ever increasing rate to his causes - absent congressional budgetary approval, under loopholes in the law and ‘emergency’ declarations. This is setting the county up for the govt side of an economic crash desired by the WEF, in order to create a disaster of such magnitude (one of there many options) to force a global economic reset.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

White recruitment has collapsed in the US army, leading to the smallest military force in 80 years:

2018: 44,042 white recruits
2023: 25,070 white recruits

OBSERVATION - Repeating myself. Why join a military who’s command structure (president on down) has over the past years demonized whites as racist, homophobic domestic terrorists and has openly stabbed the military in the back - most egregiously via the wuhan jab mandates.

What is missing is that these numbers are desirable from the progressive leftists and their push to reinstate the draft. That will be the next step in dragging the military down.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS

See “Globalism / Great Reset” regarding “disease X”

POLITICAL FRONT –

March 5- Super Tuesday primaries

****

Govt funding thru the end of FY24 is still in question as speaker johnson is facing push back from both sides of the aisle.

Illegal Immigration –

Cross file the following under CW2 as well -
The state of Texas has seized all city property along the riverfront at the border in the Eagle Pass area under governors emergency powers, including federal processing locations and equipment.

All access to the property is limited to state authority only. Border Patrol will be permitted to enter the property to remove their equipment and supplies—Agents will not have access to the area unless there is a medical emergency.

Reports are that the state plans to start arresting all who cross for criminal trespass. Razor wire barriers are being installed to replace those torn down by the feds.

OBSERVATION - This is quite the shot across the bow of the feds. Eagle Pass has been seeing upwards of 4000 illegals / day crossing - all facilitated by border patrol. So far in the courtroom Texas has been on the winning side - especially with its barriers and forbidding the BP from cutting the wire. This latest act will be extremely hard IMHO for the feds to fight - clearly actions TX is allowed to take. This is a huge pushback to the regime .

China –
Important dates of notice -
13 January 2024 - Taiwan general election
*****

Chinese high-altitude balloon flights through Taiwan’s ADIZ have become a daily occurrence and are likely part of a CCP effort to test Taiwan’s responses and wear down its threat awareness.

OBSERVATION - I’ve noted this years ago as the Taiwan situation started to heat up. Constant probing of the defenses can lead to a lowering of one’s guard and the creation of a sense of normality. This lulling into a false sense of security was nearly fatal to israel when Egypt and Syria launched surprise attack that started the Yon Kipper War - following what seemed to be another ‘routine’ military exercise.

***
Taiwan has its national elections tomorrow. Pro independence candidates appear to have edge in pre-election polls. Results could tip the balance and cause China to move towards a blockade.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024

Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.

*****
Russian Personnel Issues –-

Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov stated on Jan. 10 that the Russian military plans to reorganize the five existing naval infantry brigades of Russia’s fleets into naval infantry divisions and the Caspian Flotilla’s naval infantry regiment into a naval infantry brigade in the medium-term.

NOTE Russian marine units, along with their airborne forces, have borne the brunt of some of the most significant fighting and are generally considered to have lost so much equipment and men that they are forces in name only. This reorganization looks to still be undermanned and under equipped.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the single digits to 20s degree F range with on again, off again snow. Lows 0 to the teens.

Russia continued its assault on the Adviivka area with no discernible success. Resurgence of Russian artillery is becoming more prevalent with artillery strikes along most of the eastern and southern front.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

Poland –

New PM Tusk has been arresting members of the press who disagree with him and recently stormed the Presidential Palace arresting two opposition Conservative members of parliament

Now things are coming unraveled as tens (hundreds) of thousands of people have reportedly taken to the streets and numbers are growing.

OBSERVATION - This has all the makings of another popular uprising that has hit eastern European countries over the past few years. Tusk won by a very slim margin, a very progressive leftist in what has historically been a very conservative country. Tusk is closely attached to the EU and globalist entities affiliated with the WEF. This has the markings of a ‘color’ type revolt.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- US and UK forces, leading a multinational force, stuck Houthi targets.

- International Court of Justice convened in S Africa to hear charges of genocide against Israel.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Main combat operations in the north of Gaza have come to an end, though there is still an IDF presence.

The IDF has struck again at Hamas infrastructure in Gaza over the past 24 hours, eliminating dozens of terrorists, including leaders of Hamas’s Nukhba forces, the military stated on Friday morning.

In Khan Yunis, an IDF fighter jet struck a Hamas military compound and killed seven terrorists. One of the terrorists killed was a Nukhba commander who took part in the October 7 massacre.

Israeli forces in Khan Younis have also exposed over 300 tunnel shafts so far, destroyed 100 tunnels, uncovered arms depots below ground; Israeli army says mission led by engineering & special forces using advanced tech.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli Army Spokesman - We will continue to move against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon

———WEST BANK——————————-

Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces. Security forces make many raids throughout the West Bank capturing Hamas and other terror leaders and cells.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Overnight, over a dozen Houthi facilities in Western Yemen were targeted by U.S. and British Aircraft, ranging from Training Facilities and Storage Sites to Anti-Ship and Anti-Air Missile Sites. These sites were located around the cities/towns of Sana’a, Saada, Dhamar, Al Hudaydah, Taizz, Abas and Zabid .

US and UK forces received support from Australia, the Netherlands, Bahrain, and Canada. British Tornado fighter bombers joined over 15 F/A-18 Super Hornet strike fighters (and other support aircraft) from the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower. Warships and submarines in the region joined in by firing cruise missiles. Other munitions included with well over 100 precision-guided munitions from Tomahawk Land-Attack Cruise Missiles to AGM-88 HARM Air-to-Surface Anti-Radiation Missiles.

There were iInitial reports that the Houthis responded by launching missiles in the direction of the Red Sea. Also false reports concerning the loss of a US jet (F-22) as well as a US ship being hit.

Battle damage assessment likely to be out some time later today. There is a potential for follow-on strikes later at night (local).

Map of areas targeted in link below -

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDnA3PdXkAAls2q?format=jpg&name=small

Houthis - We will continue to target Israeli ships or those heading to Israel in the Red Sea. They have also warned Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE that if they open their airspace to the US and UK, they will officially be at war with them.

Across the region, alerts were issued. Warning sirens have been sounding at the US Embassy, Baghdad, Iraq, at this moment in time there isn’t believed to be an actual rocket attack.

According to U.S. Defense Officials, air defense batteries including MIM-104 “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missile Systems in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East have been placed on high alert in preparation for Houthi or Iranian retaliation.

The Caspian fleet of the Iranian navy is on Alert

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan - a Nato ally - criticizes the strikes calling them “disproportionate” and accused the UK and US of trying to turn the Red Sea into a “sea of blood”.

***
Iran-backed militias targeted the Conoco military base in eastern Deir ez-Zur

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims responsibility for a drone attack on U.S. forces, western Qamishli. Iran-backed telegram channels claim that the attack targeted CIA HQ in the area

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The International Court of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands, convened on Thursday to hear South Africa’s prosecution accusing Israel of genocide, the most serious accusation the court can hear. The first hearing lasted about three hours, covering South Africa’s claims of genocide. Besides the charge of genocide, South Africa is asking the court to grant temporary relief by ordering Israel to stop the war.

The Turkish President: We believe that the International Court of Justice will condemn Israel

The United Nations Human Rights Office: Israel has “repeatedly failed” to respect international humanitarian law
NOTE - The UN thru Hamas has directly supported international terrorism

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.

Voices are already squealing that we have attacked Yemen. This is where biden’s removal of the terrorist designation has come back to bite him and the US. You don’t need declarations of war from the congress to hit terrorists, that’s been pretty well established. Without that designation - well, the voices will be raised over it.

On the face of it, this was a pretty good strike. As I’ve been saying, for them to understand the meaning of the word NO, they have to be hit hard. This was a good start, but we will likely have to do it again and het next time even harder.

I expect the Houthis to try to double down on Red Sea attacks, and maybe even take a swat at Saudi Arabia for good measure.

Now the question is will Iran try to do something to help the Houthi besides providing intel and targeting data? At this stage I think Iran will limit itself to nasty commentary and urging the other ‘resistance forces’ to increase attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq.

Central / South America General-

Ecuador - Civil war alert

Violence and fighting are decreasing as the military gains control of the streets. Most prisons remain under the controls of the gangs but for now are contained by law enforcement and the military. The reality is Ecuador is facing either an entrenched armed conflict, or moving ever closer to becoming a full “narco-state”.

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