Posted on 11/08/2023 9:52:15 AM PST by SeekAndFind
In his latest Forbes column, Radical Ventures Partner Rob Toews published his predictions for AI in 2023. Next year, Rob is anticipating GPT-4’s release, the normalization of self-driving, humanoid robot development, and a revolution in search. In his 2022 predictions retrospective, there were some misses and significant hits including the dominance of language AI and Toronto establishing itself as the most important AI hub in the world outside of Silicon Valley and China.
Here are the highlights of Rob’s 10 AI for 2023:
1) GPT-4 will be released in the next couple months—and yes, it will be a big deal.
“Expect GPT-4 to be released early in the new year and to represent a dramatic step-change performance improvement relative to GPT-3 and 3.5. As manic as the recent hype around ChatGPT has been, it will be a mere prelude to the public reaction when GPT-4 is released. Buckle up.”
2) We are going to start running out of data to train large language models.
“It has become a cliché to say that data is the new oil. This analogy is fitting in one underappreciated way: both resources are finite and at risk of being exhausted. The area of AI for which this concern is most pressing is language models.”
3) For the first time, some members of the general public will begin using fully driverless cars as their day-to-day mode of transportation.
“In 2023, robotaxi services will rapidly transition from a fascinating novelty to a viable, convenient — even mundane — way to get around the city. The number of robotaxis on the road and the number of people who use them will surge. In short, autonomous vehicles are about to enter their commercialization and scaling phase.
Rollout will happen on a city-by-city basis. Beyond San Francisco, expect fully driverless services to become available to the general public in at least two more U.S. cities next year. Plausible candidate locations include Phoenix, Austin, Las Vegas and Miami.”
4) Midjourney will raise venture capital funding.
“Midjourney’s founder and CEO David Holz was previously the cofounder and CTO at Leap Motion, a once-high-flying virtual reality startup that raised close to $100 million in venture funding during the 2010s before crashing back down to earth and getting acquired in a fire sale. Holz’s negative experiences with his VC investors during the Leap Motion saga have allegedly convinced him not to take outside capital this time around. The many VC suitors who have sought to invest in Midjourney have so far all been rebuffed.
Yet faced with the demands of blistering growth, intensifying competition, and a massive market opportunity, we predict Holz will give in and raise a large funding round for Midjourney in 2023. Otherwise, the company risks being left behind in the generative AI gold rush that it helped usher in.”
5) Search will change more in 2023 than it has since Google went mainstream in the early 2000s.
“In the wake of ChatGPT, one reconceptualization of search that has gotten a lot of attention is the idea of conversational search. Why enter a query and get back a long list of links (the current Google experience) if you could instead have a dynamic conversation with an AI agent in order to find what you are looking for? Conversational search has a bright future… You.com, Character.AI, Metaphor and Perplexity are among the wave of promising young startups looking to take on Google and reinvent consumer search with LLMs and conversational interfaces.”
6) Efforts to develop humanoid robots will attract considerable attention, funding and talent. Several new humanoid robot initiatives will launch.
“In 2023, expect more contenders to enter the fray — both new startups and established companies (e.g., Toyota, Samsung, General Motors, Panasonic) — as the race to build humanoid robots heats up. Similar to autonomous vehicles circa 2016, waves of talent and capital will start pouring into the field next year as more people come to appreciate the scale of the market opportunity.”
7) The concept of “LLMOps” will emerge as a trendy new version of MLOps.
“ ...we are witnessing the emergence of a new AI technology platform: large language models (LLMs). Compared to pre-LLM machine learning, large language models represent a new AI paradigm with distinct workflows, skillsets and possibilities. The easy availability of massive pretrained foundation models via API or open source completely changes what it looks like to develop an AI product. A new suite of tools and infrastructure is therefore destined to emerge. We predict the term ‘LLMOps’ will catch on as a shorthand to refer to this new breed of AI picks and shovels.”
8) The number of research projects that build on or cite AlphaFold will surge.
“Mere months after DeepMind’s latest release, more than 500,000 researchers from 190 countries have used the AlphaFold platform to access 2 million different protein structures. This is just the beginning. Breakthroughs of AlphaFold’s magnitude require years for their full impact to manifest. In 2023, expect the volume of research built on top of AlphaFold to surge. Researchers will take this vast new trove of foundational biological knowledge and apply it to produce world-changing applications across disciplines, from new vaccines to new types of plastics.”
9) DeepMind, Google Brain, and/or OpenAI will undertake efforts to build a foundation model for robotics.
“Foundation models have been a key driver of recent progress in AI… AI systems that act in the real world — e.g., autonomous vehicles, warehouse robots, drones, humanoid robots — have so far remained mostly untouched by the new foundation model paradigm. This will change in 2023. Expect early pioneering work on this concept of foundation models for robotics to come from the world’s leading AI research organizations: DeepMind, Google Brain or perhaps OpenAI (though the latter took a step back from robotics research last year).”
10) Many billions of dollars of new investment commitments will be announced to build chip manufacturing facilities in the United States as the U.S. makes contingency plans for Taiwan.
“Artificial intelligence, like human intelligence, depends upon both software and hardware. Certain types of advanced semiconductors are essential to power modern AI. By far the most important and widespread of these are Nvidia’s GPUs; players like AMD, Intel and a handful of younger AI chip upstarts are also seeking to enter the market. Nearly all of these AI chips are designed in the United States. And nearly all of them are manufactured in Taiwan.”
Read Rob’s 2023 predictions in full. Rob writes a regular column for Forbes about artificial intelligence.
Like I should know what GPT-4 is?
AI is an over hyped idiot.
11. Skynet comes on line.
My usual comment for things like this:
Some people worry about the machines “waking up”. Oh no! They will achieve consciousness! They will plot against us! They will have personality and it will be evil!
I figure we are still many years away from that and who knows? It might never actually happen.
But still, AI is a huge deal. Right now.
So many jobs can be automated. Remember COVID? How so many people started “working from home”? Well, pretty much all of that work can be done by AI. Pretty much right now. Or else in 2024 or 2025.
And driverless cars? Say goodbye to the labor category of “trucker” — which is a huge job category.
In short, there is going to be massive unemployment because simple, stupid decision-tree logic systems (that’s “AI” today) can do your job better than you can and it doesn’t sleep and it doesn’t need a weekly paycheck.
So the big problem facing this country is — what are we going to do with about 275M people who can no longer contribute their labor to our national economy?
HINT: Some people like Bill Gates want to VERY drastically decrease the surplus population.
This isn’t about when “Skynet” gains consciousness. Not at all. This is about people being worthless. Real soon.
Chat GPT-4 is already released. And Bing is using it as well to power their AI Chat. It’s amazing, but it’s not a huge difference over 3.5.
RE: Like I should know what GPT-4 is?
Here for your edification, is GPT-4 in a nutshell:
GPT-4 stands for Generative Pre-trained Transformer 4. It is a large language model (LLM) developed by OpenAI, an artificial intelligence research company.
GPT-4 is the fourth in a series of GPT models, and is one of the most powerful LLMs in the world. It is capable of generating human-quality text, translating languages, writing different kinds of creative content, and answering your questions in an informative way.
GPT-4 is a multimodal model, which means that it can process both text and images. This makes it possible for GPT-4 to perform a wider range of tasks, such as generating images from text descriptions, or answering questions that require an understanding of both text and images.
GPT-4 is still under development, but it has already been used to create a number of impressive applications. For example, it has been used to generate realistic dialogue for chatbots, write creative text formats, and answer complex questions about the world.
RE: Bill Gates want to VERY drastically decrease the surplus population
This begs the question — what does Gates think is SURPLUS? Does he have a number in mind?
Looks like AI is a narcissist. All the predictions are in the family. News flash, there is more to the world than tech.
You don't remember that I was the guy saying that this so called AI is not AI at all.
AI was supposed to be identified as an artificial sentience undetectable to a human.
This data sorter confabulation is not AI.
Go look up the text that was on the Georgia Guidestones (which have been destroyed). Laz and I never did manage to make that road trip to go pee on them.
This begs the question — what does Gates think is SURPLUS? Does he have a number in mind?
They think they need to eliminate 7.5 billion people.
I suggest his old tired a$$ be the first to go.
After you, Bill!
RE: Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
How did they arrive at this number?
I don’t know. But it appears that the world population was at 500M in about the year 1600. That was just before the Thirty Years War — which resulted in our modern conception of the “nation state” and “national sovereignty”. Prior to that, the western world (at least) lived in some form of feudalism which important families owned and controlled certain areas, and the peasants mostly worked for them.
I really think the big goal is go back to that sort of time. I guess they figure 500M is the magic number for it.
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