Posted on 10/08/2023 9:03:31 PM PDT by Drew68
Artillery is 90% of all effective firepower. Airborne munitions can't cycle through endless tons of explosive the way arty can, and they cost vastly more.
If this is true and Israel has only 20% its arty stockpile, then Hamas isn't suiciding Gaza on pyre of defiance like people think. They timed this perfectly to lure Israel into writing cheques they can't cash in the hopes Israel will invade Gaza with infantry at which point they can grind them down endlessly with basically unending Arab volunteers in brutal urban warfare... where most of their technological advantage is gone and they won't have the most important 1/3rd of combined arms warfare.
This also would explain the brutality and the focus on taking as many civilian hostages as they can, since Israel can't just leave hundreds of Israeli civilians in Gaza and declare they aren't going to get them back... They're pretty much trapped fighting a ground war with what little artillery they have.
If the 300,000 rounds the US took from Israeli stockpiles to give to Ukraine corresponds to that 80% that Israel's supposedly down then they basically can't sustain combined armed warfare, since the 2014 Gaza war took 34,000 rounds of artillery alone.
Even if they have hundreds of thousands left, they can only use a fraction of them on Gaza since they need enough that they could fight a high intensity war with Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon if they intervene... let alone if Iran and Iraq start sending forces (US invasion handed Iraq to the Shia majority who align with Iran)
So even if they have another 300k artillery shells lying around, at most that'd be tens of thousand of available to actually use on Gaza without risk of being drowned by its rivalled arab neighbors in a multi-nation war.
That means the fighting to "open the gates of hell" or "wipe Gaza off the map" as some commentators are calling for will have to be done by air assets which can't realistically deliver the tonnage, and ground troops who would be dying at horrific ratios as urban settings negate most of the advantage of military tech.
Israel's active duty force only has 20ish thousand infantry in active force, even activating the 400k reserves you can only use a portion since there's the constant threat of a multinational war breaking out, Hezbollah in the north, and the entire west bank that could pop off...
So they have to punish Gaza, extract the hostages or their bodies, and achieve enough objectives to declare victory... against a population of 4 million! +Every radical fighter in the middle-east from Afghanistan to Aberdeen chomping at the bit to get in there... and they'll have to do it with... maybe 10k full time infantry? Maybe 20-30k counting the reservists?
In urban warfare? With limited artillery?
Hamas might actually have them...
They might have actually played their cards right to create the conditions for a Vietnam in the holy lands.
Remember Israel's active force of 169,000 is both genders and conscripts... You start losing a lot of people or start having to reassign 19 year old girls who never wanted to hold a rifle to infantry. that will grind down morale damned fast and tear open Israel's social divisions.. Not least between liberal secular jews who actually serve and the conservative orthodox who dodge the draft through "religious study."
The military hardware is not actually in anyone's custody [like, say the Israeli military in this example] - it just lies around on the empty lots for whenever we show up and need it.
Nobody will mess with it, so we don't need it guarded or locked up, or anything like that.
After all - it's OURS. ;-)
see my post #61
“If the 300,000 rounds the US took from Israeli stockpiles to give to Ukraine corresponds to that 80% that Israel’s supposedly down then they basically can’t sustain combined armed warfare, since the 2014 Gaza war took 34,000 rounds of artillery alone.”
Well, we all thought it was stupid at the time, but
“Stupid is as stupid does.”
You are certainly correct on that point.
But does it matter anymore? The "international community" seems to approve of the Hamas attack on Israel and the ultimate extermination of that State. A great many people in the United States have the same opinions. No, I am not in that camp. But a great many of our "political elites" are in that camp.
So, what is the downside of a genocidal war against the Palestinians? The Israelis are pretty much screwed no matter what they do, and they just sent way too much of their artillery ammunition to the Ukraine in support of that fiasco. They don't have enough supplies left to endure a protracted conflict or commit to a major offensive. Nor do they appear to have capable military and intelligence organizations for such projects.
And we are not really going to help them either. The best we might do is tacit approval for whatever the Israelis end up doing. Maybe not even that much. Our carrier groups will probably stay well clear of Iranian and Chinese anti-ship missiles on the coasts and monitor the activities. Whatever intel they gather will likely be compromised to all sides of the conflict.
Siege warfare is cheap and effective, compared to other tactics. It can also be quick if done with utter ruthlessness.
We should stay out of it as much as possible.
Given the incompetence of Biden, he may have compromised our nation’s security by mismanaging our munition supply. This is a time that is ripe for China’s capture of Taiwan. That would be disaster for the West because Taiwan is the major source of semiconductors used in our vehicles.
Implying that Egypt and otherwise Arab states might join to fight Israel? You mean the ones to which the US send military aid? We just sent $235 million to Egypt, and this dipsh!t thinks Egypt will turn around and declare war on Israel? Over Gaza?! He missed 50 years of history. The Israelis have a Peace Accord with Egypt, and the Egyptians have no interest in helping save Gaza.
A few MOABs would take care of things. They want to die for Allah, so send them there.
What munitions have been sent to Ukraine that would be relevant to a defense of Taiwan?
To me these would be Naval weapons, primarily.
Plus long range Air Force munitions, including both standoff weapons with @1000km range or greater, plus, maybe, the latest AMRAAMs.
I count nothing of these having been sent to Ukraine, but thats just me. What specific systems come to your mind?
God isn’t going to allow Israel to fall.
Forgetting one thing though...
The God Factor.
I think we will actually see Him show up on this one, once it escalates to full scale.
This guys had no idea what several thousand drones can do, especially in space as small as Gaza. Look at RU/UKR
You’re probably right in that it is mostly an invasion from the sea, but I think once China does invade, Taiwan may need munition replenishment and we don’t have it.
And I heard or read that the Dome interceptors were working again……
….maybe ‘fog of war’
If China gets a substantial bridgehead on Taiwan, thats all she wrote. If their amphibious transports get to the beaches Taiwans only hope is to crush them on the beach or on the water.
Thats why Taiwan has 1000+ pieces of artillery. Taiwan has few viable beaches and the island is small enough for most of their guns to cover most of them without moving much. Any attempted landing is likely to be crushed by a firepower concentration without precedent in history, landing on an also unprecedented concentration of targets.
Chinas only hope is to risk everything on one shot, absorb massive casualties, and carry on if possible. It will be 24-48 hours of hell, after which it will be perfectly clear who won.
There will be no option to bombard each other for months across trenchlines (which is what eats ammo in Ukraine), there is no room for this.
If China fails to take a viable bridgehead, their losses in trained units and shipping will be such as to preclude another attempt for years.
The biggest danger to Taiwan is a Chinese blockade, by sea and air. An invasion will be a massive risk. Taiwan is a great fortress with a formidable moat.
Taiwan,I believe, makes its own ammunition. They also have significant stockpiles.
Retard FBJ strikes again
Yes, God will prove to Israel in that moment who their true messiah is by miraculously destroying the invading armies. It will be at a moment when Israel is weak and unable to repel the assault themselves.
Interesting point. One thing I have noticed is that the central attack seems to have come through the Israeli musical festival called the Supernova festival in Gaza. As I understand it, this festival is very similar to the Burning Man rave in the Nevada desert. That is, a pagan festival of wild dancing, drugs, sex, and general debauchery.
What I also noticed from a video clip posted from this festival was a giant Buddha-like god display on a center stage as Israeli kids are dancing and partying in front of. The person filming the video pans to the incoming para-gliders in the overhead skies. As I watched and rewatched the video multiple times I kept thinking about Israel and the book of Isaiah which I just finished reading.
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